Gate Research: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weaken, BTC Continues to Fluctuate, EigenLayer Users Lose $5.7 Million in Theft

Advanced10/11/2024, 3:26:35 AM
Gate Research Weekly Review and Outlook: BTC and ETH prices fluctuated this week. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $196 million, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.9 million. On October 9, Bitcoin mining difficulty rose by 4.12%, potentially leading to a price rebound. The FTX restructuring plan received approval, with payouts set to begin in late October. Hackers hijacked an EigenLayer investor's email, stealing over 1.6 million EIGEN tokens, though some funds were frozen. Upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve officials on key economic issues may influence future monetary policy.

TL;DR

  • This week, BTC climbed to $64,461 before retreating to the $60,500 range, maintaining its overall volatile pattern.
  • Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $196 million this week, while Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $3.9 million.
  • The U.S. SEC, FBI, and DOJ jointly filed lawsuits against four fraudulent crypto companies.
  • Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 4.12% to 92.05T on October 9.
  • FTX bankruptcy reorganization plan was approved by the court, with payouts expected to begin in late October.
  • An EigenLayer investor fell victim to an email hack, leading to the theft of over 1.6 million EIGEN tokens.
  • Strong U.S. economic data for September dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, prompting cautious volatility forecasts in the options market for October.

Market Analysis

Review and Insights

  • BTC Market — Over the past 7 days, BTC showed a volatile pattern, rising from $60,500 to $64,461 before falling back to the $60,500 range. It briefly touched $60,300 but rebounded without breaking key support. The $60,000 level is crucial; if breached, BTC may decline further. Otherwise, it may continue fluctuating between $60,000 and $64,600.[1]

  • ETH Market — ETH climbed from $2,339 to a peak of $2,520 on October 7, before retreating to around $2,350 and rebounding. Short-term market activity has weakened, with bearish sentiment prevailing. The key support level to watch is $2,310. Investors may need patience as the market direction crystallizes.[2]

  • Altcoins — Meme coins performed strongly, with the Cat-Themed, Perpetuals, and Privacy sectors showing significant gains of about 15.7%, 11.5%, and 10.6%, respectively.
  • Futures — The futures market has been predominantly bullish. Positive funding rates for BTC and ETH indicate growing long positions, reflecting investors’ bullish outlook on these two cryptocurrencies.
  • Macroeconomic data — Robust U.S. employment figures show 254,000 new jobs added in September—significantly surpassing the anticipated 140,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, aligning with expectations.[3] Market predictions indicate an 80% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 20% chance rates will remain unchanged.[4]
  • Stablecoins — The total market cap of stablecoins increased slightly by 0.1% to $172.5 billion. USDT remains dominant with a 69.37% market share. Overall, the stablecoin market is stable, with top-ranked stablecoins like USDC, DAI, and FDUSD growing in market cap, while lower-ranked ones declined.[5]
  • Gas Fees — Ethereum network activity has been generally low but volatile. On October 9, gas fee surged to 60.6 Gwei, likely due to a spike in meme coin trading. At other times, activity plummeted to a mere 3.2 Gwei.[6]

According to data from Gate.io and CoinGecko, the Cat-Themed, Perpetuals, and Privacy sectors saw significant growth this week, with gains of approximately 15.7%, 11.5%, and 10.6%, respectively. The key trends are as follows:[7]

Cat-themed — Approximately 15.7% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $3.4 billion.
Cat-themed projects focus on meme coins centered around cats, attracting attention from cat lovers and speculators alike. As cat culture gains popularity, this sector has gradually expanded, driving up market enthusiasm. Among these, tokens with market caps exceeding $10 million and showing the largest gains are MINI, AAA, and AURA, which have risen by 272.1%, 228.3%, and 167.2%, respectively over the past week, demonstrating strong growth potential. However, due to the high volatility of meme coins, market participants should remain cautious of associated risks.

Perpetuals — Approximately 11.5% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $1.5 billion.
Perpetual contracts allow traders to leverage asset price trading without holding the underlying asset. The recent rise may be related to increased market volatility, with investors using perpetual contracts for hedging and arbitrage operations. As more decentralized exchanges introduce perpetual contract trading, market liquidity and opportunities are increasing. Notably, ZEX, MCB, and DYDX have risen by 18.4%, 6.2%, and 6% ,respectively over the past week.

Privacy — Approximately 10.6% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $6.3 billion.
Privacy tokens cater to users’ needs for anonymity and privacy by providing stronger data protection. Their rise may benefit from global attention to digital privacy issues, especially as data regulations become increasingly strict, leading to growing demand for privacy technologies. Additionally, policy and regulatory support for privacy technologies have also driven the performance of this sector. In particular, BDX, ZEC, and XMR have risen by 32%, 12.4%, and 9.4%, respectively over the past week, reflecting market interest in privacy tokens.

Top Performers

According to data from Gate.io [8], the top-performing tokens with large market caps over the past 7 days are:

MOODENG (Ethereum) — Approximately 1,831.8% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of $55.94 million.
MOODENG is a community-driven meme coin on Ethereum, inspired by a famous baby hippopotamus from a Thai zoo. This hippo became an internet sensation due to its amusing interactions with zookeepers, attracting widespread attention and creating a unique online cultural phenomenon. Recently, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold a substantial amount of MOODENG tokens and donated the proceeds to charity. This action sparked intense market interest, though it’s not Vitalik’s first meme coin sale—previously, tokens gifted by the SHIB team also triggered price fluctuations. As a result, MOODENG’s token price skyrocketed. [9]

NCT — Approximately 66.0% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of $44.26 million.
PolySwarm (NCT) is a decentralized cybersecurity threat intelligence platform that aims to enhance malware detection and threat intelligence gathering through distributed economic incentives. By connecting security researchers, antivirus engines, and other stakeholders on a shared platform, PolySwarm creates a supply-and-demand marketplace for cybersecurity expertise. Recently, the project has gained traction within the crypto community, with opinion leaders showing increased interest, thereby improving market sentiment. The team has confirmed that all $NCT tokens are now in circulation, alleviating concerns about future inflation. This scarcity of supply, combined with growing demand and PolySwarm’s practical applications in the cybersecurity field, has driven up the price of $NCT.

AERO — Approximately 16.4% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of $793 million.
Aero is a decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Base blockchain that offers swift, secure, and cost-effective cryptocurrency trading. The platform maintains liquidity and trading efficiency through its advanced matching engine and liquidity incentive system. Recent data from DefiLlama shows Aero’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has surged by 118% over the past month and 7.02% in the last week, making it the leading application by TVL on the Base blockchain. The recent uptick in Aero token prices may be attributed to the significant increase in on-chain activity. [10]

Weekly Spotlights

Hot Topic Review

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Increases by 4.12% to 92.05 T on October 9
According to CloverPool data, on October 10, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusted at block height 864,864 (2024-10-09 14:46:39), increasing by 4.12% to 92.05 T. The current average network hash rate is 596.30 EH/s.[11] Amid global economic uncertainty, many investors have turned to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a hedge. In this context, higher mining difficulty suggests increased resource investment in the market, reflecting miners’ expectations of future price increases and indicating strong demand for Bitcoin. This significant rise in mining difficulty could potentially drive Bitcoin prices upward.

FTX Bankruptcy Restructuring Plan Gets Court Approval, Payouts Set for Late October
On October 7, Delaware Bankruptcy Court Judge John Dorsey approved FTX’s restructuring plan, marking a pivotal moment since the cryptocurrency exchange’s 2022 collapse. The plan promises to repay users 119% of their account value, with total payouts projected to reach $16.5 billion. FTX CEO John J. Ray III hailed this as paving the way for “the largest and most complex bankruptcy estate distribution in history.” Yet, the arrangement has left some creditors disgruntled. They argue it fails to adequately account for the dramatic surge in cryptocurrency prices—particularly Bitcoin —between 2022 and 2024. Consequently, some users find their claims falling short of their crypto assets’ current value.

FTX aims to initiate its first payout within 60 days of the restructuring plan’s effective date, anticipated to be October 31. The initial phase will compensate users with claims under $50,000, totaling approximately $1.1 billion. Remaining payments will be distributed gradually in the first half of 2025. Market analyst K33 estimates that 20% to 40% of the payout funds (about $2.4 billion) may be reinvested in the cryptocurrency market. However, this phased process is expected to occur next year, potentially mitigating the overall market impact. While most creditors endorse the bankruptcy plan, some express a preference for compensation in cryptocurrency rather than based on 2022 dollar values. Nevertheless, the court rejected these objections and ruled that FTT tokens hold no value, opting for cash repayments. FTX is securing funds for compensation through investment sales, cryptocurrency price appreciation, and asset recovery. The company’s legal team is also exploring the possibility of offering stablecoin distribution options for creditors.[12]

Trump Family Proposes Launch of World Liberty Financial on Aave’s Ethereum Mainnet
On Wednesday, World Liberty Financial (WLF) unveiled its proposal to launch on the Ethereum mainnet using Aave V3, enabling users to borrow and lend assets like ETH, WBTC, USDC, and USDT. Backed by the Trump family, this project aims to establish a secure lending platform. WLF intends to contribute 20% of the protocol’s interest to the Aave ecosystem reserve and plans to expand to the Scroll Ethereum Layer 2 network following successful integration. The project will also offer non-transferable governance tokens to qualified investors, with 63% earmarked for public sale. Despite skepticism, analysts suggest that the project could draw more users to decentralized finance.[13]

U.S. SEC, FBI, and DOJ Jointly File Lawsuit Against Four Fraudulent Crypto Companies
On October 9, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and Department of Justice (DOJ) jointly filed a lawsuit against four cryptocurrency companies and nine individuals for alleged market manipulation and fraud. The accused companies include Gotbit Consulting, whose marketing director, Fedor Kedrov, allegedly manipulated Saitama and Robo Inu cryptocurrencies through wash trading. ZM Quant Investment and CLS Global are implicated in manipulating NexFundAI, a fake token created by the FBI to expose and combat crypto fraud. ZM Quant and its associates also face charges for manipulating the SaitaRealty coin.

The case involves 18 defendants and MyTrade MM company, with individuals spread across the U.S., Russia, and India, underscoring its international complexity. The FBI’s NexFundAI token served as bait to engage market makers and identify manipulation tactics. A ZM Quant defendant revealed the company’s use of bots for simultaneous buying and selling on centralized exchanges (CEX), creating artificial trading volumes. This series of lawsuits exposes rampant manipulation and fraud in the crypto market, posing significant challenges for regulators in combating these sophisticated criminal activities. As the industry moves forward, bolstering transparency and compliance will be crucial for its development.[14]

Security Incident

EigenLayer Investor’s Email Hacked, Over 1.6 Million EIGEN Tokens Stolen
On October 9, EigenLayer fell victim to a sophisticated hack, resulting in the theft of approximately 1.67 million EIGEN tokens, valued at about $5.51 million. The attacker compromised an investor’s email, altering the receiving address and diverting the tokens to their own account. Acting swiftly, the hacker sold the tokens on decentralized platforms and moved the proceeds—in USDC and USDT—to centralized exchanges. EigenLayer promptly collaborated with relevant platforms and law enforcement, managing to freeze a portion of the stolen funds. While the incident didn’t reveal vulnerabilities in EigenLayer’s protocol or token contract, and on-chain functionality remained intact, the hacker’s meticulous planning was clear. They began with a test transaction of 1 EIGEN token, waited 26 hours, then received the remaining tokens and rapidly laundered the funds, finalizing transactions through platforms like HitBTC.[15]

The community has voiced widespread skepticism about this incident, particularly concerning EigenLayer’s failure to prevent hackers from circumventing lockup rules and rapidly liquidating tokens after lifting transfer restrictions. The official tokenomics model stipulated that early contributors’ and investors’ tokens should have been locked for a year with gradual unlocking. However, the project team neglected to implement these safeguards and failed to cross-verify crucial information through phone calls or other means, enabling the hacker to succeed with ease. For a top-tier project boasting over $100 million in funding and a high Total Value Locked (TVL), such operational lapses are inexcusable. While EigenLayer’s “re-staking” technology is praised for expanding node validation service applications—potentially revolutionizing the Ethereum ecosystem and broader crypto market—these management deficiencies are steadily eroding community trust. Though technological innovation is paramount, without robust operational support, even large-scale projects may struggle to maintain their footing in this fiercely competitive market.

Project Highlights

Puffer Unveils Comprehensive Tokenomics Details
On October 9, Puffer Finance, a leading player in the Restaking sector, unveiled the tokenomics for its governance token $PUFFER. The total supply is set at 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 102.3 million tokens—10.23% of the total. Puffer’s token distribution strategy prioritizes community members committed to Ethereum’s long-term development. These members will have the power to manage fees, select operators, distribute rewards, and drive upgrades for projects like Puffer LRT, UniFi AVS, and UniFi Rollup.

Puffer’s token allocation strategy reflects its dedication to decentralization and sustainable growth. A substantial 40% of tokens will fuel ecosystem and community development, incentivizing active participation. Additionally, 1% of tokens will support Ethereum core development, subject to a 4-year vesting period. The first-season airdrop will distribute 7.5% of tokens to early supporters, with 65% available immediately and the remainder released gradually over six months. Puffer has already launched a second-season airdrop to further boost community engagement. Through this carefully crafted tokenomics, Puffer aims to foster an active, vibrant community where every user can contribute to the ecosystem’s growth.[16]

Scroll Unveils Tokenomics and Schedules Airdrop Snapshot for October 19
Scroll officially announced its $SCR token airdrop snapshot for October 19, with claims opening on October 22. The project has set a total token supply of 1 billion, aiming to support its decentralization efforts. $SCR will function as a governance token, fostering the sustainable growth of Scroll’s ecosystem and infrastructure.

The token allocation plan provides significant stakes for community participants: 15% for airdrops with 7% for the initial airdrop and 8% for future airdrops, aimed at rewarding active users and contributors; 35% allocated to ecosystem and growth, to promote the expansion of the Scroll community; 10% allocated to the Scroll Foundation for its operations and development; 23% allocated to core contributors to incentivize the team’s ongoing contributions; and 17% allocated to early investors. The first airdrop will account for 7% of the total supply, with another 8% reserved for future airdrops. In the coming days, Scroll will release more detailed information about token issuance and airdrops.[17]

Gate has launched pre-trading for Scroll (SCR) on October 8, 2024. Gate pre-trading is a special over-the-counter (OTC) trading service that allows investors to buy and sell new tokens before they are officially traded. Based on this service, both parties can set their own prices and trade tokens at expected prices before public trading begins.

Layer3 Expands to Solana Network, Launches Multiple New Features
Layer3 has expanded its token distribution protocol to the Solana network, aiming to broaden its user base. This expansion brings new features to Layer3 on Solana, including optional token migration via Wormhole and Portal, new leaderboards, reward systems, user progress tracking, and community structures. Layer3 has also introduced CUBE credentials, competitions, loot boxes, and real-time token incentives. L3 tokens and staking functions are now available on the Solana network through Wormhole, offering users a more engaging and interactive experience.[18]

Data Highlights

Strong U.S. Economic Data in September, Options Market Expects Cautious Volatility in October
The U.S. economic data for September showed strong performance. The September non-farm payroll report indicated an increase of 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 140,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, meeting expectations. According to FedWatch data, the market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting is 80%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 20%, indicating a clearer market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut. [19] Simultaneously, the predicted probability of Trump winning the presidency has risen significantly in recent days, with the November 5th U.S. election results leaning towards Trump.

Options data indicates that the market expects lower volatility for October, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for the month falling below 45%. This suggests that most market participants are cautious about this month’s market conditions, with a wait-and-see attitude becoming the mainstream sentiment. However, the at-the-money IV for one week after the November 8th expiration is 63%, indicating that investors are anticipating high volatility after the presidential election.[20]

U.S. ETF Spot Market Data
As of 4:00 UTC on October 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $196 million this week, with the total investment through Bitcoin spot ETFs reaching $427.55 billion. BlackRock continues to dominate the spot market with a 65.87% market share, its third-highest historical market share percentage. The cumulative net inflow for Bitcoin ETFs has reached $285 million.

As of 4:00 UTC on October 10, Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.9 million this week, with the cumulative investment through Ethereum spot ETFs reaching $15.31 billion. In the market, Grayscale’s ETHE holds a 40.8% market share, solidifying its leading position among the Ethereum spot ETFs.

Changes in Stablecoin Market Cap
Over the past seven days, the market capitalization of stablecoins rose marginally by 0.16% to $172.735 billion, signaling a continued influx of funds from outside the market. USDT maintains its dominance with a 69.38% share, experiencing a slight 0.07% increase in market cap compared to last week. In contrast, USDC’s market cap declined by 1.46%. Following the rate cut, the overall stablecoin market cap sustained its steady growth this week, though USDC’s performance was notably underwhelming.[21]

Weighted Funding Rates

As of 4:00 UTC on October 10, Bitcoin positions had a weighted funding rate of 0.0106%, while Ethereum positions stood at 0.0101%. Throughout the past week, both cryptocurrencies have maintained predominantly positive weighted funding rates. The network-wide contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum are largely skewed towards long positions, indicating investors’ optimistic outlook for these two major digital assets.[22]

Market Opportunties

Project Airdrops

Airdrop project to watch this week: Sunrise Layer、Yellow Network

Sunrise Layer
Sunrise blockchain is a modular data availability layer focused on Proof of Liquidity (PoL) and fee abstraction. It supports rollups and Layer 2 solutions in the Ethereum ecosystem, achieving efficient data transmission through Blob Tx and BlobStream. Developers can participate in DA through liquidity without building their own validator set. Revenue sources include transaction fees, liquidity pool fees, and MEV capture. Initially, 7% of the token supply was planned for airdrop during the TGE, with an additional 5% allocation in the future, potentially combining to 12% for distribution. A detailed timeline will be announced later.[23]

The testnet rewards active users, with early participants receiving the largest share of the upcoming RISE token airdrop. To access the testnet and faucet, users must link an EVM wallet (with at least 0.001 ETH and transaction history on Ethereum mainnet) and a Cosmos wallet.

Official Website’s Disclosed Airdrop Token Distribution Plan:

  1. Wave 1: For Gluon/UnUniFi stakers, 2% of the token supply will be airdropped.
  2. Wave 2: For Celestia stakers and Liquid Staking Token (LST) holders, another 2% of the token supply will be airdropped. The snapshot date is the same as Wave 1.
  3. Wave 3: For undisclosed ecosystems, details are yet to be revealed.
  4. Wave 4: For quest and incentivized testnet participants, including Galxe and Intract tasks, involving large-scale airdrop distribution.[24]
  5. Wave 5: For members of selected communities (such as Bad Kids, Celestine Sloths), snapshot date to be determined.

How to participate in Sunrise’s 4th wave airdrop:

  • Quest execution:
  • Complete Galxe and Intract quests, and recommend friends using your referral link.
  • Testnet participation:
  • Earn incentive points by trading or providing liquidity on the testnet.

Yellow Network
Yellow Network is a decentralized digital asset clearing network that reduces latency and improves capital efficiency through state channel technology and chain abstraction. It addresses the inefficiencies of traditional crypto trading systems and provides a secure, non-custodial solution. Yellow Network represents a decentralized Layer 3 peer-to-peer mesh network allowing brokers to communicate, trade, and aggregate liquidity from connected nodes. The airdrop has been officially confirmed, with 30% of tokens allocated to the community.

On September 18, 2024, Yellow Network secured $10 million in seed funding, led by Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, with participation from VCs like GSR.[25]

How to participate:

  1. Visit the official website, log in, and check in daily to earn points
  2. Choose to stake tokens for more points
  3. Invite friends to participate in the event for additional rewards (this invitation feature is not yet online)
  4. Complete Yellow Network quests on the Galxe website, including following the project’s Twitter, retweeting, liking, and other social media activities to earn points

Note:
The airdrop plan and participation methods may be updated at any time. Users are advised to follow Sunrise Layer’s and Yellow Network’s official channel for the latest information. At the same time, users should participate cautiously, be aware of risks, and conduct thorough research before participating. Gate.io does not guarantee the subsequent distribution of airdrop rewards.

Weekly Fundraising Report

This week, several projects successfully secured funding, spanning diverse applications in infrastructure and AI-driven social networking. RootData reports that between September 27 and October 10, 2024, 10 projects announced fundraising rounds, totaling $59.3 million. Here are the top three fundraisers:[26]

SecondLive - SecondLive, an AI & XR social metaverse project, announced the completion of a $12 million private funding round, led by Crypto.com with participation from Spark Digital and others. The project has already covered eight blockchains including Ethereum and TON, using generative AI to drive innovation in scenarios, characters, and social interactions. Players can earn $BEAN by completing tasks and holding specific NFTs, and stake $BEAN to earn the governance token $LIVE.

Delta - Delta announced the completion of $11 million in funding, split between pre-seed and seed rounds, led by institutions such as Figment Capital and Variant. Delta is a decentralized, censorship-resistant network that uses zero-knowledge proofs to achieve global state sharing and multi-domain interoperability. The funding will be used for network infrastructure development.

Mind Network - Mind Network, a fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) infrastructure provider, announced the completion of a $10 million Pre-A funding round with participation from Animoca Brands. The funds will be used to advance the application of FHE technology in AI and PoS networks, enhancing the security of decentralized networks.

What to Watch Next Week

Token Unlock

According to Token Unlocks data, next week (Oct 11-17, 2024) will see several important token unlock events in the market. Here are the top 3 token unlocks for the week: [27]

APT is scheduled to unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 8:00 PM UTC on October 11, accounting for 2.25% of its circulating supply, with a value of about $104.73 million. Of this, core contributors will unlock 3.96 million tokens, representing 35% of the tokens being unlocked. Investors should be aware that APT’s price may experience significant volatility before and after the unlock.

ARB is scheduled to unlock 92.65 million tokens at 1:00 PM UTC on October 16, accounting for 2.56% of the circulating supply. The team will unlock 56.13 million tokens, representing 60.6% of the total tokens being unlocked.

EIGEN is scheduled to unlock 11.22 million tokens around 7:00 PM UTC on October 15, accounting for 6.01% of the circulating supply. All of these tokens are allocated for future community plans.

Crypto Calendar

In the coming week, the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry will see several key events. On October 12, European regulatory authorities will begin consultations on the guidelines for the Crypto-Asset Markets Regulation (MiCAR). The deadline for comments on the consultation document is on this day. This document aims to establish standardized tests and legal opinion templates for crypto asset classification to promote a unified classification method. The main contents include Asset-Referenced Tokens (ARTs) and non-ARTs or EMTs crypto assets.

On October 16, multiple cryptocurrency industry summits will be in full swing, including ETHShanghai 2024 Summit, Pragma San Francisco, Blockchance 2024, and Avalanche Summit LATAM.[28]

Some important macroeconomic data releases will also have a significant impact on the industry. Notably, three Federal Reserve officials will give speeches this week. On October 12, Fed Governor Bowman will speak. On October 15, Fed Governor Waller will speak on the economic outlook. On October 16, Fed Governor Kugler will give a speech. These speeches cover key areas such as economic growth, inflation, and the job market, which are crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions.[29]



References

  1. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT
  2. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/trade/ETH_USDT
  3. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  4. CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  5. DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
  6. Gasnow, https://gasnow.io/
  7. Coingecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
  8. https://www.gate.io/price
  9. https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1843260976206082216
  10. Defillama, https://defillama.com/protocol/aerodrome#information
  11. CloverPool, https://explorer.cloverpool.com/zh-CN/btc/insights-difficulty
  12. Wired, https://www.wired.com/story
  13. X, https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1844131880448528714
  14. Charges, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/gdvzkynnbpw/10192024crypto_andriunin.pdf
  15. EigenLayer, https://x.com/eigenlayer/status/1842317191045157099
  16. Puffer finance, https://medium.com/
  17. X, https://x.com/Scroll_ZKP/status/1843638328459178043
  18. X, https://x.com/layer3xyz
  19. CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-t/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  20. https://www.greeks.live/#/deribit/tools/datalab/BTC
  21. Defillama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
  22. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/AvgFunding/ETH
  23. Galxe, https://app.galxe.com/quest/FXrzkfGsuiRq6aZKaxSdMG
  24. Medium, @sunriselayer/sunrise-testnet-guide-c439566a8a21"">https://medium.com/@sunriselayer/sunrise-testnet-guide-c439566a8a21
  25. Yellow Network, https://docs.yellow.org/
  26. Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/zh/Fundraising
  27. Token Unlocks, https://token.unlocks.app/
  28. PANews, https://www.panewslab.com/zh/calendar/index.html
  29. Jin10, https://rili.jin10.com/day/2024-10-11
  30. SosoValue, https://sosovalue.xyz/assets/etf/us-btc-spot



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Gate Research: Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weaken, BTC Continues to Fluctuate, EigenLayer Users Lose $5.7 Million in Theft

Advanced10/11/2024, 3:26:35 AM
Gate Research Weekly Review and Outlook: BTC and ETH prices fluctuated this week. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $196 million, while Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.9 million. On October 9, Bitcoin mining difficulty rose by 4.12%, potentially leading to a price rebound. The FTX restructuring plan received approval, with payouts set to begin in late October. Hackers hijacked an EigenLayer investor's email, stealing over 1.6 million EIGEN tokens, though some funds were frozen. Upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve officials on key economic issues may influence future monetary policy.

TL;DR

  • This week, BTC climbed to $64,461 before retreating to the $60,500 range, maintaining its overall volatile pattern.
  • Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $196 million this week, while Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflows of $3.9 million.
  • The U.S. SEC, FBI, and DOJ jointly filed lawsuits against four fraudulent crypto companies.
  • Bitcoin mining difficulty increased by 4.12% to 92.05T on October 9.
  • FTX bankruptcy reorganization plan was approved by the court, with payouts expected to begin in late October.
  • An EigenLayer investor fell victim to an email hack, leading to the theft of over 1.6 million EIGEN tokens.
  • Strong U.S. economic data for September dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, prompting cautious volatility forecasts in the options market for October.

Market Analysis

Review and Insights

  • BTC Market — Over the past 7 days, BTC showed a volatile pattern, rising from $60,500 to $64,461 before falling back to the $60,500 range. It briefly touched $60,300 but rebounded without breaking key support. The $60,000 level is crucial; if breached, BTC may decline further. Otherwise, it may continue fluctuating between $60,000 and $64,600.[1]

  • ETH Market — ETH climbed from $2,339 to a peak of $2,520 on October 7, before retreating to around $2,350 and rebounding. Short-term market activity has weakened, with bearish sentiment prevailing. The key support level to watch is $2,310. Investors may need patience as the market direction crystallizes.[2]

  • Altcoins — Meme coins performed strongly, with the Cat-Themed, Perpetuals, and Privacy sectors showing significant gains of about 15.7%, 11.5%, and 10.6%, respectively.
  • Futures — The futures market has been predominantly bullish. Positive funding rates for BTC and ETH indicate growing long positions, reflecting investors’ bullish outlook on these two cryptocurrencies.
  • Macroeconomic data — Robust U.S. employment figures show 254,000 new jobs added in September—significantly surpassing the anticipated 140,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, aligning with expectations.[3] Market predictions indicate an 80% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 20% chance rates will remain unchanged.[4]
  • Stablecoins — The total market cap of stablecoins increased slightly by 0.1% to $172.5 billion. USDT remains dominant with a 69.37% market share. Overall, the stablecoin market is stable, with top-ranked stablecoins like USDC, DAI, and FDUSD growing in market cap, while lower-ranked ones declined.[5]
  • Gas Fees — Ethereum network activity has been generally low but volatile. On October 9, gas fee surged to 60.6 Gwei, likely due to a spike in meme coin trading. At other times, activity plummeted to a mere 3.2 Gwei.[6]

According to data from Gate.io and CoinGecko, the Cat-Themed, Perpetuals, and Privacy sectors saw significant growth this week, with gains of approximately 15.7%, 11.5%, and 10.6%, respectively. The key trends are as follows:[7]

Cat-themed — Approximately 15.7% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $3.4 billion.
Cat-themed projects focus on meme coins centered around cats, attracting attention from cat lovers and speculators alike. As cat culture gains popularity, this sector has gradually expanded, driving up market enthusiasm. Among these, tokens with market caps exceeding $10 million and showing the largest gains are MINI, AAA, and AURA, which have risen by 272.1%, 228.3%, and 167.2%, respectively over the past week, demonstrating strong growth potential. However, due to the high volatility of meme coins, market participants should remain cautious of associated risks.

Perpetuals — Approximately 11.5% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $1.5 billion.
Perpetual contracts allow traders to leverage asset price trading without holding the underlying asset. The recent rise may be related to increased market volatility, with investors using perpetual contracts for hedging and arbitrage operations. As more decentralized exchanges introduce perpetual contract trading, market liquidity and opportunities are increasing. Notably, ZEX, MCB, and DYDX have risen by 18.4%, 6.2%, and 6% ,respectively over the past week.

Privacy — Approximately 10.6% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of about $6.3 billion.
Privacy tokens cater to users’ needs for anonymity and privacy by providing stronger data protection. Their rise may benefit from global attention to digital privacy issues, especially as data regulations become increasingly strict, leading to growing demand for privacy technologies. Additionally, policy and regulatory support for privacy technologies have also driven the performance of this sector. In particular, BDX, ZEC, and XMR have risen by 32%, 12.4%, and 9.4%, respectively over the past week, reflecting market interest in privacy tokens.

Top Performers

According to data from Gate.io [8], the top-performing tokens with large market caps over the past 7 days are:

MOODENG (Ethereum) — Approximately 1,831.8% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of $55.94 million.
MOODENG is a community-driven meme coin on Ethereum, inspired by a famous baby hippopotamus from a Thai zoo. This hippo became an internet sensation due to its amusing interactions with zookeepers, attracting widespread attention and creating a unique online cultural phenomenon. Recently, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sold a substantial amount of MOODENG tokens and donated the proceeds to charity. This action sparked intense market interest, though it’s not Vitalik’s first meme coin sale—previously, tokens gifted by the SHIB team also triggered price fluctuations. As a result, MOODENG’s token price skyrocketed. [9]

NCT — Approximately 66.0% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of $44.26 million.
PolySwarm (NCT) is a decentralized cybersecurity threat intelligence platform that aims to enhance malware detection and threat intelligence gathering through distributed economic incentives. By connecting security researchers, antivirus engines, and other stakeholders on a shared platform, PolySwarm creates a supply-and-demand marketplace for cybersecurity expertise. Recently, the project has gained traction within the crypto community, with opinion leaders showing increased interest, thereby improving market sentiment. The team has confirmed that all $NCT tokens are now in circulation, alleviating concerns about future inflation. This scarcity of supply, combined with growing demand and PolySwarm’s practical applications in the cybersecurity field, has driven up the price of $NCT.

AERO — Approximately 16.4% increase in the past 7 days, with a circulating market cap of $793 million.
Aero is a decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Base blockchain that offers swift, secure, and cost-effective cryptocurrency trading. The platform maintains liquidity and trading efficiency through its advanced matching engine and liquidity incentive system. Recent data from DefiLlama shows Aero’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has surged by 118% over the past month and 7.02% in the last week, making it the leading application by TVL on the Base blockchain. The recent uptick in Aero token prices may be attributed to the significant increase in on-chain activity. [10]

Weekly Spotlights

Hot Topic Review

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Increases by 4.12% to 92.05 T on October 9
According to CloverPool data, on October 10, Bitcoin mining difficulty adjusted at block height 864,864 (2024-10-09 14:46:39), increasing by 4.12% to 92.05 T. The current average network hash rate is 596.30 EH/s.[11] Amid global economic uncertainty, many investors have turned to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a hedge. In this context, higher mining difficulty suggests increased resource investment in the market, reflecting miners’ expectations of future price increases and indicating strong demand for Bitcoin. This significant rise in mining difficulty could potentially drive Bitcoin prices upward.

FTX Bankruptcy Restructuring Plan Gets Court Approval, Payouts Set for Late October
On October 7, Delaware Bankruptcy Court Judge John Dorsey approved FTX’s restructuring plan, marking a pivotal moment since the cryptocurrency exchange’s 2022 collapse. The plan promises to repay users 119% of their account value, with total payouts projected to reach $16.5 billion. FTX CEO John J. Ray III hailed this as paving the way for “the largest and most complex bankruptcy estate distribution in history.” Yet, the arrangement has left some creditors disgruntled. They argue it fails to adequately account for the dramatic surge in cryptocurrency prices—particularly Bitcoin —between 2022 and 2024. Consequently, some users find their claims falling short of their crypto assets’ current value.

FTX aims to initiate its first payout within 60 days of the restructuring plan’s effective date, anticipated to be October 31. The initial phase will compensate users with claims under $50,000, totaling approximately $1.1 billion. Remaining payments will be distributed gradually in the first half of 2025. Market analyst K33 estimates that 20% to 40% of the payout funds (about $2.4 billion) may be reinvested in the cryptocurrency market. However, this phased process is expected to occur next year, potentially mitigating the overall market impact. While most creditors endorse the bankruptcy plan, some express a preference for compensation in cryptocurrency rather than based on 2022 dollar values. Nevertheless, the court rejected these objections and ruled that FTT tokens hold no value, opting for cash repayments. FTX is securing funds for compensation through investment sales, cryptocurrency price appreciation, and asset recovery. The company’s legal team is also exploring the possibility of offering stablecoin distribution options for creditors.[12]

Trump Family Proposes Launch of World Liberty Financial on Aave’s Ethereum Mainnet
On Wednesday, World Liberty Financial (WLF) unveiled its proposal to launch on the Ethereum mainnet using Aave V3, enabling users to borrow and lend assets like ETH, WBTC, USDC, and USDT. Backed by the Trump family, this project aims to establish a secure lending platform. WLF intends to contribute 20% of the protocol’s interest to the Aave ecosystem reserve and plans to expand to the Scroll Ethereum Layer 2 network following successful integration. The project will also offer non-transferable governance tokens to qualified investors, with 63% earmarked for public sale. Despite skepticism, analysts suggest that the project could draw more users to decentralized finance.[13]

U.S. SEC, FBI, and DOJ Jointly File Lawsuit Against Four Fraudulent Crypto Companies
On October 9, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and Department of Justice (DOJ) jointly filed a lawsuit against four cryptocurrency companies and nine individuals for alleged market manipulation and fraud. The accused companies include Gotbit Consulting, whose marketing director, Fedor Kedrov, allegedly manipulated Saitama and Robo Inu cryptocurrencies through wash trading. ZM Quant Investment and CLS Global are implicated in manipulating NexFundAI, a fake token created by the FBI to expose and combat crypto fraud. ZM Quant and its associates also face charges for manipulating the SaitaRealty coin.

The case involves 18 defendants and MyTrade MM company, with individuals spread across the U.S., Russia, and India, underscoring its international complexity. The FBI’s NexFundAI token served as bait to engage market makers and identify manipulation tactics. A ZM Quant defendant revealed the company’s use of bots for simultaneous buying and selling on centralized exchanges (CEX), creating artificial trading volumes. This series of lawsuits exposes rampant manipulation and fraud in the crypto market, posing significant challenges for regulators in combating these sophisticated criminal activities. As the industry moves forward, bolstering transparency and compliance will be crucial for its development.[14]

Security Incident

EigenLayer Investor’s Email Hacked, Over 1.6 Million EIGEN Tokens Stolen
On October 9, EigenLayer fell victim to a sophisticated hack, resulting in the theft of approximately 1.67 million EIGEN tokens, valued at about $5.51 million. The attacker compromised an investor’s email, altering the receiving address and diverting the tokens to their own account. Acting swiftly, the hacker sold the tokens on decentralized platforms and moved the proceeds—in USDC and USDT—to centralized exchanges. EigenLayer promptly collaborated with relevant platforms and law enforcement, managing to freeze a portion of the stolen funds. While the incident didn’t reveal vulnerabilities in EigenLayer’s protocol or token contract, and on-chain functionality remained intact, the hacker’s meticulous planning was clear. They began with a test transaction of 1 EIGEN token, waited 26 hours, then received the remaining tokens and rapidly laundered the funds, finalizing transactions through platforms like HitBTC.[15]

The community has voiced widespread skepticism about this incident, particularly concerning EigenLayer’s failure to prevent hackers from circumventing lockup rules and rapidly liquidating tokens after lifting transfer restrictions. The official tokenomics model stipulated that early contributors’ and investors’ tokens should have been locked for a year with gradual unlocking. However, the project team neglected to implement these safeguards and failed to cross-verify crucial information through phone calls or other means, enabling the hacker to succeed with ease. For a top-tier project boasting over $100 million in funding and a high Total Value Locked (TVL), such operational lapses are inexcusable. While EigenLayer’s “re-staking” technology is praised for expanding node validation service applications—potentially revolutionizing the Ethereum ecosystem and broader crypto market—these management deficiencies are steadily eroding community trust. Though technological innovation is paramount, without robust operational support, even large-scale projects may struggle to maintain their footing in this fiercely competitive market.

Project Highlights

Puffer Unveils Comprehensive Tokenomics Details
On October 9, Puffer Finance, a leading player in the Restaking sector, unveiled the tokenomics for its governance token $PUFFER. The total supply is set at 1 billion, with an initial circulation of 102.3 million tokens—10.23% of the total. Puffer’s token distribution strategy prioritizes community members committed to Ethereum’s long-term development. These members will have the power to manage fees, select operators, distribute rewards, and drive upgrades for projects like Puffer LRT, UniFi AVS, and UniFi Rollup.

Puffer’s token allocation strategy reflects its dedication to decentralization and sustainable growth. A substantial 40% of tokens will fuel ecosystem and community development, incentivizing active participation. Additionally, 1% of tokens will support Ethereum core development, subject to a 4-year vesting period. The first-season airdrop will distribute 7.5% of tokens to early supporters, with 65% available immediately and the remainder released gradually over six months. Puffer has already launched a second-season airdrop to further boost community engagement. Through this carefully crafted tokenomics, Puffer aims to foster an active, vibrant community where every user can contribute to the ecosystem’s growth.[16]

Scroll Unveils Tokenomics and Schedules Airdrop Snapshot for October 19
Scroll officially announced its $SCR token airdrop snapshot for October 19, with claims opening on October 22. The project has set a total token supply of 1 billion, aiming to support its decentralization efforts. $SCR will function as a governance token, fostering the sustainable growth of Scroll’s ecosystem and infrastructure.

The token allocation plan provides significant stakes for community participants: 15% for airdrops with 7% for the initial airdrop and 8% for future airdrops, aimed at rewarding active users and contributors; 35% allocated to ecosystem and growth, to promote the expansion of the Scroll community; 10% allocated to the Scroll Foundation for its operations and development; 23% allocated to core contributors to incentivize the team’s ongoing contributions; and 17% allocated to early investors. The first airdrop will account for 7% of the total supply, with another 8% reserved for future airdrops. In the coming days, Scroll will release more detailed information about token issuance and airdrops.[17]

Gate has launched pre-trading for Scroll (SCR) on October 8, 2024. Gate pre-trading is a special over-the-counter (OTC) trading service that allows investors to buy and sell new tokens before they are officially traded. Based on this service, both parties can set their own prices and trade tokens at expected prices before public trading begins.

Layer3 Expands to Solana Network, Launches Multiple New Features
Layer3 has expanded its token distribution protocol to the Solana network, aiming to broaden its user base. This expansion brings new features to Layer3 on Solana, including optional token migration via Wormhole and Portal, new leaderboards, reward systems, user progress tracking, and community structures. Layer3 has also introduced CUBE credentials, competitions, loot boxes, and real-time token incentives. L3 tokens and staking functions are now available on the Solana network through Wormhole, offering users a more engaging and interactive experience.[18]

Data Highlights

Strong U.S. Economic Data in September, Options Market Expects Cautious Volatility in October
The U.S. economic data for September showed strong performance. The September non-farm payroll report indicated an increase of 254,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 140,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, meeting expectations. According to FedWatch data, the market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next meeting is 80%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 20%, indicating a clearer market expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut. [19] Simultaneously, the predicted probability of Trump winning the presidency has risen significantly in recent days, with the November 5th U.S. election results leaning towards Trump.

Options data indicates that the market expects lower volatility for October, with the at-the-money implied volatility (IV) for the month falling below 45%. This suggests that most market participants are cautious about this month’s market conditions, with a wait-and-see attitude becoming the mainstream sentiment. However, the at-the-money IV for one week after the November 8th expiration is 63%, indicating that investors are anticipating high volatility after the presidential election.[20]

U.S. ETF Spot Market Data
As of 4:00 UTC on October 10, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $196 million this week, with the total investment through Bitcoin spot ETFs reaching $427.55 billion. BlackRock continues to dominate the spot market with a 65.87% market share, its third-highest historical market share percentage. The cumulative net inflow for Bitcoin ETFs has reached $285 million.

As of 4:00 UTC on October 10, Ethereum ETFs experienced a net outflow of $3.9 million this week, with the cumulative investment through Ethereum spot ETFs reaching $15.31 billion. In the market, Grayscale’s ETHE holds a 40.8% market share, solidifying its leading position among the Ethereum spot ETFs.

Changes in Stablecoin Market Cap
Over the past seven days, the market capitalization of stablecoins rose marginally by 0.16% to $172.735 billion, signaling a continued influx of funds from outside the market. USDT maintains its dominance with a 69.38% share, experiencing a slight 0.07% increase in market cap compared to last week. In contrast, USDC’s market cap declined by 1.46%. Following the rate cut, the overall stablecoin market cap sustained its steady growth this week, though USDC’s performance was notably underwhelming.[21]

Weighted Funding Rates

As of 4:00 UTC on October 10, Bitcoin positions had a weighted funding rate of 0.0106%, while Ethereum positions stood at 0.0101%. Throughout the past week, both cryptocurrencies have maintained predominantly positive weighted funding rates. The network-wide contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum are largely skewed towards long positions, indicating investors’ optimistic outlook for these two major digital assets.[22]

Market Opportunties

Project Airdrops

Airdrop project to watch this week: Sunrise Layer、Yellow Network

Sunrise Layer
Sunrise blockchain is a modular data availability layer focused on Proof of Liquidity (PoL) and fee abstraction. It supports rollups and Layer 2 solutions in the Ethereum ecosystem, achieving efficient data transmission through Blob Tx and BlobStream. Developers can participate in DA through liquidity without building their own validator set. Revenue sources include transaction fees, liquidity pool fees, and MEV capture. Initially, 7% of the token supply was planned for airdrop during the TGE, with an additional 5% allocation in the future, potentially combining to 12% for distribution. A detailed timeline will be announced later.[23]

The testnet rewards active users, with early participants receiving the largest share of the upcoming RISE token airdrop. To access the testnet and faucet, users must link an EVM wallet (with at least 0.001 ETH and transaction history on Ethereum mainnet) and a Cosmos wallet.

Official Website’s Disclosed Airdrop Token Distribution Plan:

  1. Wave 1: For Gluon/UnUniFi stakers, 2% of the token supply will be airdropped.
  2. Wave 2: For Celestia stakers and Liquid Staking Token (LST) holders, another 2% of the token supply will be airdropped. The snapshot date is the same as Wave 1.
  3. Wave 3: For undisclosed ecosystems, details are yet to be revealed.
  4. Wave 4: For quest and incentivized testnet participants, including Galxe and Intract tasks, involving large-scale airdrop distribution.[24]
  5. Wave 5: For members of selected communities (such as Bad Kids, Celestine Sloths), snapshot date to be determined.

How to participate in Sunrise’s 4th wave airdrop:

  • Quest execution:
  • Complete Galxe and Intract quests, and recommend friends using your referral link.
  • Testnet participation:
  • Earn incentive points by trading or providing liquidity on the testnet.

Yellow Network
Yellow Network is a decentralized digital asset clearing network that reduces latency and improves capital efficiency through state channel technology and chain abstraction. It addresses the inefficiencies of traditional crypto trading systems and provides a secure, non-custodial solution. Yellow Network represents a decentralized Layer 3 peer-to-peer mesh network allowing brokers to communicate, trade, and aggregate liquidity from connected nodes. The airdrop has been officially confirmed, with 30% of tokens allocated to the community.

On September 18, 2024, Yellow Network secured $10 million in seed funding, led by Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, with participation from VCs like GSR.[25]

How to participate:

  1. Visit the official website, log in, and check in daily to earn points
  2. Choose to stake tokens for more points
  3. Invite friends to participate in the event for additional rewards (this invitation feature is not yet online)
  4. Complete Yellow Network quests on the Galxe website, including following the project’s Twitter, retweeting, liking, and other social media activities to earn points

Note:
The airdrop plan and participation methods may be updated at any time. Users are advised to follow Sunrise Layer’s and Yellow Network’s official channel for the latest information. At the same time, users should participate cautiously, be aware of risks, and conduct thorough research before participating. Gate.io does not guarantee the subsequent distribution of airdrop rewards.

Weekly Fundraising Report

This week, several projects successfully secured funding, spanning diverse applications in infrastructure and AI-driven social networking. RootData reports that between September 27 and October 10, 2024, 10 projects announced fundraising rounds, totaling $59.3 million. Here are the top three fundraisers:[26]

SecondLive - SecondLive, an AI & XR social metaverse project, announced the completion of a $12 million private funding round, led by Crypto.com with participation from Spark Digital and others. The project has already covered eight blockchains including Ethereum and TON, using generative AI to drive innovation in scenarios, characters, and social interactions. Players can earn $BEAN by completing tasks and holding specific NFTs, and stake $BEAN to earn the governance token $LIVE.

Delta - Delta announced the completion of $11 million in funding, split between pre-seed and seed rounds, led by institutions such as Figment Capital and Variant. Delta is a decentralized, censorship-resistant network that uses zero-knowledge proofs to achieve global state sharing and multi-domain interoperability. The funding will be used for network infrastructure development.

Mind Network - Mind Network, a fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) infrastructure provider, announced the completion of a $10 million Pre-A funding round with participation from Animoca Brands. The funds will be used to advance the application of FHE technology in AI and PoS networks, enhancing the security of decentralized networks.

What to Watch Next Week

Token Unlock

According to Token Unlocks data, next week (Oct 11-17, 2024) will see several important token unlock events in the market. Here are the top 3 token unlocks for the week: [27]

APT is scheduled to unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 8:00 PM UTC on October 11, accounting for 2.25% of its circulating supply, with a value of about $104.73 million. Of this, core contributors will unlock 3.96 million tokens, representing 35% of the tokens being unlocked. Investors should be aware that APT’s price may experience significant volatility before and after the unlock.

ARB is scheduled to unlock 92.65 million tokens at 1:00 PM UTC on October 16, accounting for 2.56% of the circulating supply. The team will unlock 56.13 million tokens, representing 60.6% of the total tokens being unlocked.

EIGEN is scheduled to unlock 11.22 million tokens around 7:00 PM UTC on October 15, accounting for 6.01% of the circulating supply. All of these tokens are allocated for future community plans.

Crypto Calendar

In the coming week, the blockchain and cryptocurrency industry will see several key events. On October 12, European regulatory authorities will begin consultations on the guidelines for the Crypto-Asset Markets Regulation (MiCAR). The deadline for comments on the consultation document is on this day. This document aims to establish standardized tests and legal opinion templates for crypto asset classification to promote a unified classification method. The main contents include Asset-Referenced Tokens (ARTs) and non-ARTs or EMTs crypto assets.

On October 16, multiple cryptocurrency industry summits will be in full swing, including ETHShanghai 2024 Summit, Pragma San Francisco, Blockchance 2024, and Avalanche Summit LATAM.[28]

Some important macroeconomic data releases will also have a significant impact on the industry. Notably, three Federal Reserve officials will give speeches this week. On October 12, Fed Governor Bowman will speak. On October 15, Fed Governor Waller will speak on the economic outlook. On October 16, Fed Governor Kugler will give a speech. These speeches cover key areas such as economic growth, inflation, and the job market, which are crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions.[29]



References

  1. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT
  2. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/trade/ETH_USDT
  3. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  4. CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  5. DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
  6. Gasnow, https://gasnow.io/
  7. Coingecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
  8. https://www.gate.io/price
  9. https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1843260976206082216
  10. Defillama, https://defillama.com/protocol/aerodrome#information
  11. CloverPool, https://explorer.cloverpool.com/zh-CN/btc/insights-difficulty
  12. Wired, https://www.wired.com/story
  13. X, https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/1844131880448528714
  14. Charges, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/legaldocs/gdvzkynnbpw/10192024crypto_andriunin.pdf
  15. EigenLayer, https://x.com/eigenlayer/status/1842317191045157099
  16. Puffer finance, https://medium.com/
  17. X, https://x.com/Scroll_ZKP/status/1843638328459178043
  18. X, https://x.com/layer3xyz
  19. CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-t/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  20. https://www.greeks.live/#/deribit/tools/datalab/BTC
  21. Defillama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
  22. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/AvgFunding/ETH
  23. Galxe, https://app.galxe.com/quest/FXrzkfGsuiRq6aZKaxSdMG
  24. Medium, @sunriselayer/sunrise-testnet-guide-c439566a8a21"">https://medium.com/@sunriselayer/sunrise-testnet-guide-c439566a8a21
  25. Yellow Network, https://docs.yellow.org/
  26. Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/zh/Fundraising
  27. Token Unlocks, https://token.unlocks.app/
  28. PANews, https://www.panewslab.com/zh/calendar/index.html
  29. Jin10, https://rili.jin10.com/day/2024-10-11
  30. SosoValue, https://sosovalue.xyz/assets/etf/us-btc-spot



Gate Research
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Disclaimer
Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk, and it is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they are purchasing before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages caused by such investment decisions.

Author: Smallwz、Cooper、Neo、Emery、Mary、Doris
Translator: Sonia
Reviewer(s): Edward、Addie
Translation Reviewer(s): Paine、Piper
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