Forward the Original Title: FMG Thematic Study: Ten Insights from 10 Years in the Crypto Secondary Market

Hello everyone, I am the founder of FMG. Today, as Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 mark, I would like to share with you some key bull market principles I’ve learned after experiencing several cycles.

1. Emotional Value

In the market, the most important asset is the emotional value you give yourself. Let yourself be full of energy and effort, sleep well, exercise well, and be in a good mood. And focus on competing with yourself. Ride the bull with confidence.

2. Recognize the Bigger Picture

Since 2023, the market has risen sixfold from its bottom. If you are still obsessed with fundamentals, unlock volume, and FDV data, instead of jumping into the game and embracing risks, you will completely miss these opportunities.

1. The Sad Reality: Reduced Volatility

Due to the entry of trading bots and overcrowded gamma scalping strategies, the price volatility of BTC has significantly decreased this cycle. Everyone knows how to accumulate and short now. To protect profits, it’s better to exit and wait for the next opportunity. In this new game, it’s not as easy to make money as before.

This is why Meme tokens have risen—they add much-needed volatility to the market. We believe the moment of odds reversal will come, various sectors will explode, and the cycle will eventually end, providing time to rest.

4. Use of leverage

Leverage (via contracts or margin trading) should be used for short-term plays. However, off-exchange leverage can be used long-term, as demonstrated by MSTR’s trading strategy.

5. Leveraging Bull Market Booms and Crashes

We need a diversified portfolio, strategies, and disciplined risk management. Here’s how we structure a portfolio: core assets + growth assets + cash positions + speculative assets. The first two categories should be held firmly. If you feel restless, only touch a small portion of speculative assets.

6. Recognize Risk-Reward Ratios to Reduce Anxiety

Core assets provide stable returns. Growth assets carry medium-to-high risk and returns. Speculative assets are for extreme risk and reward. If your friend says, “I bought a project that went up 5x,” don’t feel anxious. It’s likely just a low-quality speculative asset. Let me explain.

7. Core Assets: Limited Downside, 2x Potential Upside

Core assets are those recognized by national treasuries, publicly traded companies, and financial institutions. Even beginners can easily understand their value. The goal is to accumulate as many core assets as possible in the market.

Don’t have overly high expectations for core assets. Don’t obsess over whether Bitcoin will reach $200,000 or $500,000. Just hold and sell when the market sentiment reaches a frenzy. Accept the price at that moment.

8. Growth Assets: 4-6x Potential, Like “Yao Ming” in a Crowd

Growth assets are not officially recognized by governments but are supported and endorsed by certain hedge funds, centralized exchanges (CEXs), and DeFi platforms. They tend to have substantial liquidity. Duan Yongping once described a game: how do you spot Yao Ming in a crowd? Most people mistake a 1.9-meter-tall person for him. But the moment Yao Ming enters, the whole restaurant turns into a sensation. Similarly, growth assets are easy to identify within the realm of general knowledge—they don’t require technical expertise to understand. These are the assets that people outside the crypto space can name besides Bitcoin. Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and BNB are all examples of “Yao Ming in the crowd.” If you encounter a novel asset whose potential gains are slightly higher than growth assets but with much less liquidity, it’s better to stick with growth assets. In a frenzied market, growth assets often deliver 4-6x returns or even higher, while maintaining relative stability.

9. Speculative Assets: Aim for 10x or More

Speculative assets are for professional players.

The YC startup bible says a product must offer 10x better user experience. Similarly, speculative assets need to deliver 10x returns to justify the risks.

The YC startup bible says a product must offer 10x better user experience. Similarly, speculative assets need to deliver 10x returns to justify the risks.

PNUT surged over 10x in 30 days

10. What Makes a Successful Speculation?

Here are three types of speculative assets that can deliver 10x or even 100x returns:

1. Strong Performers That Keep Winning

The top 50 assets by market capitalization have often gone through many cycles of hardships. It is recognized that this market capitalization is not easy to achieve. It is impossible for a fast horse to increase so much in a short period of time, but if it can squeeze into the top 50, hold on to it. Network effects make the strong even stronger.

(2)New Species

New species are entirely novel concepts. For example, AXS allowed Filipinos to earn money by gaming last cycle. Or this cycle’s AI Meme tokens, where a chatbot became a digital asset. Allocate scout capital to these opportunities—get in first, then learn.

(3) Niche and Undervalued Assets

Because it is unpopular and underestimated enough, the squat is low and the jump is high.

Therefore, unpopular and underestimated items are often as scarce as pearls.

When everyone is busy hyping up popular topics, they forget about them. Every piece of good news will boost the entire niche market, and small market capitalization can easily take off. Such as POL, CRV, and HNT, etc.

Conclusion

In general, speculative assets are highly challenging to manage. We should invest in and hold them using profits secured from other investments, leaving the rest to fate and time. Constantly monitoring absolute monthly returns will make it impossible to succeed in this area. I believe that disciplined investors can extract profits from Bitcoin and growth assets to persistently invest in speculative assets. Such investors are responsible, disciplined, and systematically pursue alpha, demonstrating effective money management. FMG exemplifies this type of investor.

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