In the past year, the market performance of cryptocurrency ETH has fallen short of expectations, with its price consistently underperforming. During this period, the Ethereum Foundation (EF) has sold off significant amounts of its ETH holdings multiple times, sparking heated discussions among community members each time. Given its history of offloading ETH near relative price peaks, the Ethereum Foundation has even been humorously called the “top escape artist” by some in the community. But is this reputation truly justified? This article analyzes the historical data of the Ethereum Foundation’s ETH sales and examines the relationship between these sales and ETH’s price trends to provide user insights.

Historical Large-Scale ETH Sales by the Ethereum Foundation

After reviewing the on-chain activity of the Ethereum Foundation’s public addresses (0xde0) and (0x976), the following observations were made:

1. Since August 2015, the Ethereum Foundation has primarily transferred ETH to exchanges such as Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase, and Bitfinex. Among these:
   • The total value of ETH transferred to Kraken amounts to approximately $852 million.
   • Transfers to Bitstamp are valued at about $724 million.
   • ETH sent to Coinbase is worth around $681 million.
2. These three exchanges alone account for over 81% of the total ETH value the Foundation transfers.

Source: Arkham

The amount of ETH transferred by the Ethereum Foundation to exchanges varies, with the largest transfers reaching several tens of thousands of ETH, while the smallest are in single-digit amounts. After ranking individual transfers by value, it was found that among the top 30 largest transactions, 8 occurred in 2017, 13 in 2018, 1 in 2019, 2 in 2020, 4 in 2021, none in 2022, and 1 each in 2023 and 2024.

The following chart, based on the Ethereum Foundation’s historical sales data and ETH price trends, has been created:

Source: TradingView

Several large ETH transfers in 2017 were concentrated in mid-to-late December, during which ETH experienced a significant price correction of nearly 40% by the end of the month, plunging from a peak of $850 to a low of $520. Following this decline, ETH prices surged in early 2018, reaching an all-time high of $1,428 on January 13.

During this period, the Ethereum Foundation continued to sell large quantities of ETH as prices climbed. According to incomplete on-chain data, the Foundation transferred approximately 480,000 ETH in January 2018 alone.

Source: Arkham

Reviewing ETH’s price trends, between August 1, 2018, and October 31, 2020, ETH remained in a relatively low-price phase. However, during this period, the Ethereum Foundation continued selling its holdings. According to incomplete statistics, there were 34 transactions involving over 10,000 ETH each. The three largest transfers by value were sent to a Bitcoin Suisse wallet (0x875), with a combined value exceeding $43 million. Additionally, there were 454 transactions involving over 1,000 ETH each.

Source: Arkham

In 2021, a comparison of large Ethereum Foundation transfers and ETH’s price movements reveals that just before ETH’s sharp rally in late April 2021, the Foundation sold nearly 35,000 ETH between March and April. This strategic timing allowed the Foundation to avoid the subsequent near-doubling of ETH’s price perfectly.

Source: TradingView

On May 12, 2021, just as ETH hit an all-time high of $4,366, the Ethereum Foundation began a week-long series of sales. Notably, on May 17, 2021, the Foundation completed a single transfer of over 35,000 ETH, which remains its largest single transaction, valued at approximately $126 million.

Source: TradingView

In 2022, the Ethereum Foundation significantly reduced its ETH sales, with only about a dozen transactions exceeding 1,000 ETH annually. The largest sale occurred on July 8, 2022, involving 3,200 ETH, valued at approximately $3.93 million.

On January 22, 2022, while ETH was at a short-term low, the Foundation transferred two batches of 1,000 ETH each to two exchanges. During fluctuating price increases in March, the Foundation continued to sell ETH incrementally. On May 13, 2022, it transferred around 1,000 ETH to each of three exchanges, totaling approximately $6 million. In the following month, ETH’s price declined steadily.

On July 8, 2022, the Foundation sold 3,200 ETH. Although ETH’s price dropped nearly 20% in the days immediately after the sale, it doubled within the following month, demonstrating the market’s resilience despite the short-term dip.

Source: TradingView

In both 2023 and 2024, the Ethereum Foundation’s ETH sales were relatively limited. On May 6, 2023, the Foundation transferred 15,000 ETH to the Kraken exchange, valued at approximately $30.1 million, marking that year’s largest single ETH transfer. Over the two years, only about a dozen transactions exceeded 1,000 ETH each.

Looking at the broader timeline, from mid-October 2023 to mid-March 2024, the price of ETH surged from $1,500 to a peak of $4,090, representing a 1.72x increase. During this period, the Ethereum Foundation executed multiple sales. While these sales did cause short-term market disruptions—such as drops of nearly 10% following sales on October 9, 2023, and January 15, 2024—they could not halt the overall upward trend, and ETH continued to rally significantly after each dip.

Overall, the Foundation’s ETH sales appear part of a long-term strategy involving periodic, gradual selling. Although these large-scale sales can temporarily influence market sentiment and trigger panic selling—resulting in short-term price drops, often described as “perfectly timed top exits”—they don’t guarantee a sustained price decline. Market trends, especially during a strong bullish rally, are driven by broader factors and won’t be derailed by temporary downturns.

For crypto traders, especially those engaging in leveraged trades, it is advisable not to rely solely on news events for trading decisions. Sudden market developments can alter sentiment rapidly, and once an upward trend gains momentum, it tends to persist despite brief corrections.

Reasons Behind the Ethereum Foundation’s ETH Sales

On August 23, the Ethereum Foundation transferred 35,000 ETH to the Kraken exchange, valued at approximately $94 million. This move triggered panic in the market, causing the price of ETH to plunge from around $2,750 to a low of $2,150.

In response, Aya Miyaguchi, Executive Director of the Ethereum Foundation, explained that the transfer was part of the Foundation’s financial management activities. She noted, “The Ethereum Foundation’s annual budget is approximately $100 million, mainly allocated to grants and salaries, with some recipients only able to receive funds in fiat currency. For a long time this year, the Foundation was advised not to engage in any financial activities due to regulatory complexities, which is why we couldn’t share our plans in advance. However, this ETH transfer does not necessarily mean an immediate sale—there may be a gradual sale plan to follow.”

As of September 22, 2024, the Ethereum Foundation’s main wallet still holds approximately 271,600 ETH, valued at around $703 million.

Source: Arkham

At the current annual spending rate of $100 million, the Ethereum Foundation’s ETH holdings would theoretically last about seven years. However, this timeframe is subject to change based on fluctuations in ETH’s price.

Will the Price of ETH Rise Again?

As the flagship of Blockchain 2.0, Ethereum introduced the innovative concept of smart contracts, laying the foundation for developing decentralized applications (DApps). Over the past decade, Ethereum has attracted a large number of users and developers, building a strong community that has driven the rise and prosperity of sectors such as decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).

However, in recent years, several factors have affected Ethereum’s market performance:

• The rise of Layer 2 (L2) solutions has fragmented liquidity and introduced competition with Layer 1 (L1).
• The Ultra Sound Money narrative—which suggests ETH could become deflationary over time—has come under doubt.
• Competitors like Solana and Sui have challenged Ethereum on transaction speed and costs.
• A lack of new compelling narratives has also dampened market sentiment.

As a result, ETH’s price stagnated, and the confidence of many holders gradually weakened. In recent public discussions, Ethereum Foundation’s research team members responded to concerns about ETH’s price trajectory.

According to them, the logic for ETH’s potential price increase remains clear. Ethereum is building a neutral financial platform that enables the issuance and trading of financial assets. It also allows the creation of new financial products, such as derivatives, without requiring permission—an extremely valuable capability. ETH will appreciate in value as long as Ethereum continues facilitating sustainable economic activity. It is, they argue, simply a matter of time.

Conclusion

Historical data suggests a correlation between ETH price fluctuations and the Ethereum Foundation’s selling activities, though it is not a definitive relationship and ultimately remains a matter of probability. Using these sales as a trading signal for crypto traders carries significant risks, and caution is advised. However, the capture of ETH’s value and its long-term accumulation are closely tied to the growth and success of the Ethereum ecosystem—only time will provide the final answer.