Forwarded the Original Title: Who Stole Your Bitcoin?

First of all, congratulations on Bitcoin officially reaching 100,000 US dollars today. Let me tell you an interesting story.

In January 2018, I wrote an article about how to survive in a bear market.

It was indeed a bold statement back then, and the most core passage in it (which was severely ridiculed by a friend in the comment area), the original text is:

“It’s just a matter of time before one Bitcoin can reach 50,000 US dollars in the future.

Since we know Bitcoin will rise to $50,000, every operation now should aim to increase the number of Bitcoins. Why sell at a loss to stop the bleeding now? Where is the loss?”

A friend in the comment area replied: “The author came to the conclusion that Bitcoin will hit $50,000 with a casual pat on the back?”

I forgot to mention that Bitcoin was $11,000 that day.

What happened next was amusing—

The commenter showed a certain level of integrity, as their comment remained undeleted;

But as Bitcoin broke through $20,000, $30,000, $40,000… and now $100,000, people have been visiting that comment every time Bitcoin hits a milestone to jokingly check in 😂. That little comment has become a famous landmark.

As someone from the generation of internet natives, this kind of stubborn anecdote, paired with the astonishing performance of this magical internet currency, is naturally satisfying.

There’s a famous image many of us have seen.

How you imagine HODLing

How HODLing actually is

Many people even corrected it, the second picture should be:

How HODLing actually is 2.0

But actually, there’s a third version of this meme that many don’t know about. Honestly, looking back over the years, it’s the most impactful to me:

How HODLing actually is 3.0

So, is HODLing Bitcoin really that simple?

Then why do so many people fail to hold on?

If I were my 2018 self, faced with this question, I might have answered quickly: Yes, holding Bitcoin is very simple—just do one thing: store it in a cold wallet.

But!! That answer is only half correct.

After drifting in this industry for 7 years, I’ve finally understood the second half of the truth.

Today, in 2024, I would tell you the truth is actually this:

HODLing Bitcoin is still simple, but you actually need to do three things:

1. Store it in a cold wallet
2. Regularly reinforce your belief
3. Live well

The first one, cold wallets, needs no explanation.

The second thing is worth talking about.

Honestly, I’m deeply grateful to everyone who evangelizes for Bitcoin.

Faith is something that weakens over time and with experience, so you need to refresh it periodically.

Otherwise, your Bitcoin will be lost to the market through countless ups and downs.

No one can establish a “steel-branded mindset” just with their flesh and blood—not even Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, who secretly sold some Bitcoin at the $16,000 bottom, likely attempting to hedge for tax purposes.

Moreover, the crypto industry has a terrifying ability to spotlight its ugliest parts.

You see scammers, clowns, scandals, and beggars taking center stage one after another;

You witness one Ponzi scheme or fraud after another rise and collapse.

From big VC setups orchestrated by major players

To PVP schemes in chat groups, the path is full of thorns.

Feeling disillusioned with this industry is only natural.

If someone still has unshaken enthusiasm, honestly, I’d question their sincerity.

Therefore, you must replenish your faith regularly.

Now, let’s enter faith-refreshing time.

The launch of Bitcoin’s rise hasn’t been a single leap but more like a multi-stage rocket launch, each stage building on the last:

Pre-phase: The downfall of three major scammers (SBF, Su Zhu, Do Kwon) + the Fed’s rate hike chilliness firmly welded Bitcoin’s bottom at $16,000.

From that point, Bitcoin’s rise from $16,000 to today’s $101,600 can be attributed to three key drivers:

First-stage rocket: $16,000–$30,000. Thanks to Grayscale, which absorbed Bitcoin like a glutton and won a critical lawsuit against the SEC.

Second-stage rocket: $30,000–$60,000. Thanks to ETFs, especially BlackRock and Fidelity, whose traditional institutions brought their clients and hot money from the stock market into Bitcoin.

Third-stage rocket: $60,000–$100,000. Thanks to MicroStrategy, who breaks through key psychological levels is particularly challenging due to the invisible pressure from various technical indicators. However, MicroStrategy’s faith and determination directly swept away these pressures by using cash from bond issuance and stock sales, propelling Bitcoin into a vacuum zone.

Next, there’s the fourth-stage rocket, which might be the most powerful yet:

Considering Trump’s nomination of crypto-friendly, even crypto-enthusiastic officials, America’s Bitcoin strategic reserve proposal might become a reality.

And with the United States taking the lead, is it possible that Europe, the Middle East, Japan, South Korea, South America, and even China will follow?

The once-distant dream of Bitcoin as digital “gold” now seems within reach.

The greatest characteristic of Bitcoin is that it doesn’t change—a quality akin to gold.

The golden seal of Emperor Qin Shi Huang, the golden crown of Emperor Taizong, and the golden hall of Emperor Hongwu are all made of the same gold.

What was Bitcoin like in 2017? What was it like in 2021? What will it be like in 2025? Still the same Bitcoin.

“Predictable” = “Trustworthy” = “Timeless”

You can’t trust a project that rugs within hours or one that updates its roadmap every five years. Nor can you be sure today’s dedicated entrepreneur won’t turn into a ruthless CEO years down the line.

But you can easily predict what Bitcoin’s network will look like 10 or 20 years from now—it will always be the same.

That’s why countries are making Bitcoin, not other assets, their “national strategic reserve.”

You may ask, Mr. Todd, I seem to understand. But we’re here to ‘make it big.’ You’re telling me to HODL Bitcoin? How much upside does Bitcoin still have?”

Bitcoin vs Others

Honestly, I can’t predict, and almost no one can give you an accurate prediction.

Which brings me to my third point—live well.

Another key trait of this industry is its ability to showcase the most extravagant aspects.

One moment, someone casually earns $1M or $2M;

The next moment, they’re posting a farewell message;

And soon after, they’re traveling the world.

Of course, this doesn’t even touch on the hedonistic lives of exchange owners in Singapore and Dubai.

There’s truth and lies in this, with 75% being fake, 20% being show-offs, and the remaining 5% being truly wealthy.

But this stimulation over-activates your dissatisfaction and anger.

This is why memes arise. I’ll write more about memes another time.

Recently, an account with a gorilla avatar made a $5M bet on XRP contracts, drawing the envy of many. However, it was later exposed that the trades were on a virtual platform, designed solely to trick others into paying fees.

Do you know how ironic it is when you were once faced with a false P picture, silently wept and scolded yourself for being cowardly, and then retaliated by opening a huge lever?

The key to HODLing is learning to live well.

How to live well:

1. Always record yourself in words

2. Accept the fact that others earn more than you do

3. Focus on the present moment

4. Eat well

5. Set realistic and achievable goals

6. Challenge negative thinking

7. Sleep well

8. Cultivate positive self-talk

9. Practice gratitude

10. Help others

Only by living well can you truly HODL Bitcoin.

If you don’t live well and fall into the emotional traps carefully crafted by altcoin issuers, fantasizing about aggressive strategies to overtake others, the outcome is clear—

Your Bitcoins will all go to those altcoin issuers.

Over the years, I estimate that 95% of people have fewer Bitcoins in terms of BTC value.

The rare contrarians, perhaps 5%, are incredibly lucky.

Remember this sentence?

“The first time you heard about Bitcoin,

was often when you could have owned the most of it. “

Finally, let’s review the true principles of HODLing Bitcoin:

1. Store it in a cold wallet.

2. Regularly reinforce your belief.

3. Live well.

Time flies—seven years have passed, and Bitcoin has grown tenfold in USD terms.

However, 1 BTC = 1 BTC, always has been.

It was true in the past, and it will be true in the future.

So, please HODL your Bitcoin. Don’t wait until it reaches $1 million to realize it.

Disclaimer:

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