Key Takeaways:

1. Rapid Evolution of the Public Blockchain Ecosystem: The public blockchain ecosystem has undergone three significant developmental stages. From 2013 to 2017, Ethereum’s smart contract technology established the groundwork for on-chain applications and asset issuance. Between 2018 and 2021, BNB Chain and Solana emerged as prominent players due to their low transaction fees and high throughput. From 2021 to 2024, Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum and Base have significantly enhanced Ethereum’s scalability, serving as pivotal strategies to overcome its scaling challenges.
2. Strong Growth of Solana and Ton: Solana rapidly exceeded 3 million users after its launch. Despite the setbacks from the FTX incident, the resurgence of meme-driven narratives helped it recover its prominent status. Concurrently, Ton capitalized on Telegram’s extensive user base to become one of the fastest-growing public blockchains in 2024. It has seen consistent increases in user engagement and developer activities, drawing considerable market interest.
3. Rapid Rise of the Layer 2 Ecosystem: Layer 2 projects such as Arbitrum and Base have experienced substantial growth in Total Value Locked (TVL). Arbitrum’s TVL now exceeds $13 billion, and Base has emerged as a prominent project in the Layer 2 sector, propelled by a surge in meme token trading. Consequently, there has been a significant uptick in both user and developer engagement on these platforms.
4. Positive Correlation Between Public Blockchain Market Cap and On-Chain Metrics: A positive correlation exists between market capitalization, active addresses, TVL, and transaction volume across various public blockchains, contributing to a beneficial flywheel effect within the ecosystem. Although Layer 2 solutions have bolstered Ethereum’s capabilities, DeFi funds are still predominantly concentrated on the Ethereum mainnet.
5. The Importance of Developer Activity for Public Blockchain Growth: Despite a positive correlation between market capitalization and on-chain activity, developer activity is a critical driver of long-term growth for public blockchains. Ronin achieved new highs in daily active users, fueled by a surge in blockchain gaming, while Solana experienced a rebound in transaction volumes driven by the meme trend. These examples underscore the pivotal role of narratives in attracting users and developers.
6. Future Trends and Opportunities: As Layer 2 and modular blockchain technologies evolve, deploying customized chains will become increasingly accessible. The future public blockchain market is anticipated to be an ecosystem driven by technological and narrative innovations. Established blockchains must continually advance their technology to maintain their dominance, whereas emerging blockchains will strive to rapidly capture market share with distinctive narratives.

Introduction

1.Public Blockchain Activity Trends: Dominant Forces and Emerging Competitors：In recent years, user activity on prominent blockchains like Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Solana has experienced significant fluctuations. As an early leader in DeFi, Ethereum’s user growth slowed after 2021 due to performance bottlenecks and high gas fees, prompting users to migrate to more efficient on-chain ecosystems. BNB Chain rapidly expanded its user base during the DeFi boom in 2021, leveraging low fees and EVM compatibility; however, its growth stabilized as market competition intensified. Despite facing market shocks, Solana managed to reactivate its user base through the rise of trending applications, benefiting from its high performance and low costs.

2.DeFi Activity Levels: Driven by Technological Expansion and Market Fluctuations：As the core of the early DeFi ecosystem, Ethereum has maintained a dominant position in Total Value Locked (TVL) over the long term. Its TVL peaked at $106 billion in 2021; although it subsequently fell to over $25 billion due to market corrections, it still demonstrates a strong market foundation. However, this landscape is beginning to face challenges with the rapid development of Layer 2 solutions.

3.Trends in Market Capitalization of Public Blockchains：Public blockchains are the foundation of the Web3 ecosystem, and their valuation reflects the market’s recognition of their decentralized infrastructure. Since its launch in 2015, Ethereum has leveraged its first-mover advantage and robust ecosystem to grow its market capitalization from $131 billion in 2017 to $571.6 billion in 2021, establishing itself as a benchmark for industry valuation. Although it experienced a correction due to the bear market in 2023, Ethereum’s market cap has recovered to over $200 billion in 2024, indicating market confidence in its long-term prospects.

4.Correlation Analysis of Public Blockchain Data：Through the analysis of multiple key metrics, we observe a significant positive correlation among various data points within the public blockchain ecosystem, highlighting their importance in assessing these chains’ health and growth potential.