The Facebook-affiliated public blockchain Sui has recently gained significant attention, with the most discussed topic on social media being “the SUI token seems to be replicating the price movement of SOL in 2021.” Many opinions suggest that SUI’s recent rise is strikingly similar to the early stages of SOL’s previous surge, leading to the inference that Sui could become the next Solana.

Sui’s mainnet launched in May 2023, while Solana’s mainnet went live in March 2020, indicating a considerable difference in their current data. However, from the perspective of growth potential, it is necessary to compare both networks’ performances during the same period. PANews compares Sui and Solana’s performance in July 2021, more than a year after their respective launches. Although this method might seem a bit like “carving a boat to find a sword,” it can provide an objective reference and comparison.

On-chain data: Sui is better than Solana in 2021

To make a clearer comparison of the data, we will use Solana’s figures from around July 12, 2021, and Sui’s data from September 24, 2023.

From the on-chain data, Sui currently outperforms Solana’s performance in 2021. In fact, while Solana’s SOL token experienced significant price increases in 2021, the ecosystem’s data was not particularly impressive. Notably, Solana’s daily active addresses in 2021 were generally in the tens of thousands, only surpassing 100,000 in 2022.

In contrast, Sui has seen a significant change in this metric recently. Prior to April of this year, Sui’s daily active addresses were similar to Solana’s in 2021, averaging in the tens of thousands. However, following the surge of spam attacks in April, Sui’s daily active addresses skyrocketed to over a million. Even during the market lull in August, this number remained above 400,000. Recently, Sui has experienced another substantial increase, with daily active addresses again exceeding one million.

Sui daily active address data

Solana Daily Active Address Data

A frequently mentioned metric in the optimistic discussions about Sui is its peak TPS, which can reach 297,000 transactions, compared to Solana’s maximum peak of 65,000 transactions. However, based on current daily TPS data, Sui’s TPS figures still do not match Solana’s levels from July 2021.

Overall, from an on-chain perspective, Sui’s activity is significantly better than Solana’s in July 2021, providing a solid argument for Sui potentially becoming the next Solana.

Social media influence: Sui lacks a “celebrity spokesperson”

The development of an ecosystem is one aspect, but in the crypto space, the influence of social media can sometimes have an even greater impact on a token’s price. One significant reason for Solana’s substantial rise in 2021 was the public support from FTX founder SBF. When discussing why they chose Solana, Dylan and Ian Macalinao, co-founders of Saber (the fastest-growing DeFi project on Solana in 2021), stated, “We had been following SBF for some time, and we were using FTX. From there, we saw that Solana was a great public blockchain.”

In addition to SBF’s influence, the investment from the prominent crypto venture capital firm A16z also fueled market optimism about Solana. This aspect can be attributed to the perception of capital. Notably, in 2021, Solana also garnered collaborations and endorsements from several celebrities, including Mike Tyson, Michael Jordan, and Melania Trump. As a result, Solana became a bona fide celebrity blockchain, with social media buzzing with discussions about Solana potentially being an “Ethereum killer,” much like the current speculation surrounding Sui as the next Solana.

Andrew Kang, co-founder and partner at Mechanism Capital, commented in response to the discussions, “I don’t think SUI’s market cap will reach SOL’s level; its current market cap is only 3.5% of SOL, which sounds like the arguments made by the .eth community before or during SOL’s performance surpassing expectations.”

In comparison, there are numerous KOLs supporting Sui on social media today. In September, K33 Research analyst David Zimmerman noted that the Sui network, with its technological advantages and the upcoming launch of a native gaming console, could become a strong competitor to Solana. However, Sui lacks a “celebrity spokesperson” like SBF and instead has a multitude of industry KOLs expressing bullish sentiments about Sui on social media.

Grasp the trend: Solana still occupies the main market of MEME

Capitalizing on trends is a key factor in a project’s success. In 2021, the trending topics were NFTs and DeFi, and Solana gained significant attention in the NFT space. In the current cycle, MEME tokens have become the largest trend, contributing greatly to on-chain data performance, a trend that was previously dominated by Solana. However, recent data indicates that Sui’s MEME market has finally made progress. Recently, the number of new tokens added daily on Sui surpassed 300, marking a significant increase. Before September 10, this figure ranged between 30 and 50.

Despite this growth, Sui’s numbers still lag significantly behind Solana, which continues to generate around 10,000 new tokens daily. Unfortunately, data on the number of new tokens created on Solana in 2021 is unavailable for comparison.

From the perspective of transaction volume, on September 24, the 24-hour token transaction volume on the Sui chain was US$95 million, and Solana was US$1.1 billion that day. Solana still occupies the important niche of MEME. Sui also faces multiple opponents such as Base, Ethereum L2, and TON.

Capital boost: The two came from the same class

Ultimately, the support from capital is a crucial factor in the growth of a token’s market value. Recently, the boost for Sui has primarily come from Grayscale. On September 13, the Grayscale Sui Trust surpassed $1 million in assets under management. Additionally, on September 17, Circle co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire announced the launch of USDC & CCTP on the Sui Network.

Looking back at Solana in 2021, FTX not only influenced social media sentiment but also provided substantial financial backing. It is estimated that FTX and its related investment arm, Alameda Research, invested over $100 million in the Solana ecosystem across various enterprises and projects. In June 2021, a16z injected $314 million into Solana, with the strong partnership with FTX allowing Solana to secure considerable funding to promote and drive up its price.

Sui has not had any recent financing (though there are rumors of OTC financing, which have yet to be confirmed). Its last major funding round was a $300 million investment in 2022, interestingly led by FTX Ventures, with participation from a16z Crypto, Jump Crypto, Apollo, Binance Labs, Franklin Templeton, Coinbase Ventures, Circle Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, and Bixin Ventures. Many of these investors were also backers of Solana previously. However, in 2023, Sui’s development company, Mysten Labs, paid $96 million to buy back shares from FTX.

Market performance: market trends do have similar experiences

Returning to the most critical area of current discussions, the token market, Sui’s token has recently experienced a significant surge. From August 5 to September 23, within just 49 days, it increased by 256%, a performance that far exceeds that of other public blockchains.

2021 July Solana Price Chart

Looking back at SOL in 2021, from July 20 to August 18, the price increased by 264% over 29 days. The concentrated surge during this period shows many similarities to the recent price movement of Sui.

2024 August-September SUI Price Chart

Currently, SUI’s circulating market cap is approximately $4.1 billion, while SOL reached a market cap of $18.7 billion after its initial surge. However, SUI’s supply stands at only 26.8%, with further token unlocks occurring each month. Currently, 21% of SUI tokens remain locked. Even when considering the circulating market cap including these locked tokens, it still falls short of SOL’s $18.7 billion after its first round of increases in 2021.

From the perspective of trading volume, SUI’s recent surge may be significantly influenced by the enthusiastic support from the Korean market. Korea’s largest exchange, Upbit, currently accounts for approximately 7.21% of SUI’s trading volume, making it the largest exchange for SUI trading after Binance, Coinbase, and OKX.

Overall, Sui does share many similarities with Solana in 2021. There are similar narratives on social media, comparable performance advantages, and similar investment institutions backing them. Sui might become the next high-performance public blockchain favored by the market, but there are several critical questions to consider.

Firstly, Sui has not achieved the same level of dominance that Solana did in 2021. The current L1 and L2 landscape is filled with strong competitors, so can performance still be a decisive advantage? Secondly, Sui’s data growth often shows explosive increases followed by significant declines. Does this volatility in on-chain data truly reflect the ecosystem’s vitality? Thirdly, there have yet to be standout ecological DApps in Sui’s ecosystem that create wealth effects and break into mainstream consciousness, akin to Raydium and MagicEden during Solana’s last bull market. Finally, the issue of token unlocks cannot be overlooked.

Of course, predicting the market is inherently uncertain, and this analysis should not be considered investment advice; caution is advised.

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