BTC Falls Below the $75,000 Mark – What’s Next for the Market?

According to Gate.io market data, BTC is currently priced at $76,238, with a 24-hour decline of 8.01%. Compared to the historical high of $109,500 set in the early hours of January 20, BTC has fallen by nearly 30%. The Fear Greed Index today is 17, indicating that the market has entered an extreme fear stage. In addition, today’s ahr999 index is 0.67, indicating the current BTC price Suitable for long-term investors to make regular investments.

The decline in the price of BTC is mainly due to the macroeconomic aspect. After U.S. President Donald Trump announced reciprocal tariffs last week, the three major U.S. stock indexes plummeted in a row. From the perspective of weekly performance, the Dow Jones index fell by 7.86% for the week, and the cumulative decline at the high point reached 15.00%; The S&P 500 index fell 9.08% for the week, and the cumulative decline from its high point reached 17.46%; The Nasdaq index fell by 10.02% for the week, and the cumulative decline from the high point reached 22.85%, confirming the entry into a technical bear market. With the implementation of the tariff policy, the market’s fears of a “Trump recession” have risen sharply, Wall Street institutions have adjusted their strategies, and investor sentiment has fallen to a freezing point.

In addition, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cuts, believing that if an economic recession hits, there is a higher risk of the Fed further easing its policies. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June, earlier than the previously anticipated July. Assuming the basic scenario of the U.S. avoiding a recession, the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for three consecutive times, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. However, Goldman Sachs predicts that if the economy really falls into recession, the Fed will take a more aggressive policy response, cutting interest rates by about 200 basis points next year.

BTC market analysis

Current Market Overview

• Spot Price: 76,238.4 USDT
• 24-hour price change: -8.01%
• 24-hour high: 83,169.6 USDT
• 24-hour lowest price: 74,500 USDT
• Market sentiment: The fear and greed index is 23, indicating an extremely fearful market sentiment.
• Support level: 74,920.9 USDT

• Resistance level: 80,765.9 USDT

  Technical indicator analysis

• Bearish signal: The current RSI indicator shows overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pullback in the short term.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Strategy one: Short-term bearish strategy

• Direction: Bearish
• Entry Price: 76,200 USDT (current contract price)
• Stop-loss price: 78,000 USDT (above the resistance level)
• Target Price: 74,500 USDT (Close to Support Level)
• Reason: The current market sentiment is extremely fearful, and the RSI indicator shows overbought conditions, a pullback may occur in the short term. The entry price is close to the current market price, and the risk is relatively manageable.

Strategy 2: Short-term Long Strategy (Rebound)

• Direction: Long
• Entry Price: 74,950 USDT (close to support level)
• Stop-loss price: 74,500 USDT (below the support level)
• Target price: 78,000 USDT (close to the previous high point)
• Reason: If the price rebounds near the support level, it may attract buying interest. This strategy takes advantage of market rebounds, entering at a price close to the support level with lower risk.

Outlook for the future

In recent times, the market sentiment has plunged into extreme panic, but in the long term, BTC still has strong fundamental support. This decline is mainly affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, including the stock market crash caused by the US tariff policy and the market’s concern about the “Trump recession”. However, the potential interest rate cut policy by the Federal Reserve (expected to start in June) may inject liquidity into the market, benefiting risk assets, including Bitcoin, in the medium to long term.

Long-term, Bitcoin’s scarcity, institutional adoption (such as ETF fund inflows), and expectations of loose global monetary policies still make it an important asset for hedging inflation and economic uncertainty. Amid market volatility, rational investors should focus on long-term value rather than short-term noise.