Daily News | The US Announced Reciprocal Tariffs to Impact the Crypto Market, The Fed May Cut Interest Rates Ahead of Schedule
Crypto Daily Digest: SOL on-chain indicators continued to strengthen, and the Fed may announce a rate cut in June
According to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net outflow of $165 million last week. Since 2025, BTC ETF has basically shown a net outflow trend.
Last week, the Ethereum spot ETF had a total outflow of $54 million, of which BlackRock ETHA had an outflow of $20.2 million and Grayscale ETHE had an outflow of $31.1 million. Both ETH ETF and BTC ETF showed a net outflow trend. This morning, the ETH price fell below the $1,600 mark, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.02, both hitting a nearly three-year low.
Solana TVL hit a new high in SOL pricing, but SOL price remained under pressure
According to Cointelegraph, although the price of SOL fell by 9% from March 28 to April 4, Solana‘s on-chain indicators continued to strengthen. On April 2, the total locked volume (TVL) of Solana network DApp reached 53.8 million SOL, a new high since June 2022, reaching $6.5 billion in US dollars, leading BNB Chain by about $780 million.
During the same period, Solana chain DEX transactions showed strong performance, with Solana occupying 24% of the market share, surpassing BNB Chain (12%) and Base (10%). However, the unlocking of 1.79 million SOL on April 4 released obvious selling pressure, and with the fading popularity of meme coins, there is still uncertainty about the short-term price rebound. Despite the MEV controversy, Solana still has the support of developers and users in terms of underlying scalability and Web3 experience, consolidating its second place in decentralized platforms.
Data: Bitcoin‘s “realized cap” increased, but its market cap remained flat, and capital inflows failed to push up asset prices
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju wrote that he believes the Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and the basis for judgment is the key indicator of on-chain data, “Realized Cap”. Its operating logic is that when BTC is transferred into a wallet, it is considered a “buy”, and when it is transferred out, it is considered a “sell”. By calculating the average cost basis of each wallet × the holding volume, the “realized cap” of the entire network can be obtained. This indicator reflects the total capital entering the Bitcoin market through real on-chain activities.
The real market cap is different from the market cap based on the last transaction price on the exchange. When someone buys only $10 of BTC, the market cap increases by much more than $10. The price is actually determined by the balance of buy and sell pressure in the order book. A small amount of buying in a low selling pressure environment can significantly push up the price. In a high selling pressure environment, even a large amount of buying is difficult to pull up the price, such as the volume-price divergence that occurred when Bitcoin approached $100,000.
The bull-bear cycle is judged based on the following framework. The bear market signal is that the “realized cap” grows but the market cap stagnates or falls, which means that capital inflows cannot push up prices, which is a characteristic of the current market stage. The bull market signal is that the “realized cap” is stable but the market cap is skyrocketing, and a small amount of new funds can drive the price up. Although some capital flows are difficult to track, the main capital flows will be reflected on the chain. The current data clearly points to a bear market signal. Although the selling pressure may ease at any time, historical data shows that a true trend reversal takes at least 6 months, and the probability of a short-term rebound is low.
Viewpoint: The probability of a US recession is 50%, and the Fed is expected to announce a rate cut in June
TD Securities said that worsening trade tensions could prompt the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield could fall to 3% by the end of this year. “We have moved our forecast for the first FOMC rate cut from July to June, and now expect the committee to cut rates at every subsequent meeting until May 2026,” strategists including Oscar Munoz wrote in a report.
Separately, analysts put the odds of a U.S. recession at 50%.TD Securities joins Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS Global Wealth Management Inc. in bringing forward expectations for U.S. policy easing as President Donald Trump’s tariff actions rattle global markets. Swap traders are now pricing in more than four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, compared with about three on April 1, the day before Trump unveiled his larger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs.
Market Trends: BTC fell to around $77,000, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate hit a 4-year low
Market Hotspots
BNB Chain’s trending meme coins TUT, MUBARAK, etc. performed relatively well in the context of a general market decline. Two weeks after CZ pushed BNB Chain, the popularity faded and these popular meme coins also fell by more than 80% from their historical highs. In fact, the meme narrative is just a resonance of emotions and funds in a short period of time. Once the attention cycle ends, the final outcome of the meme coin is still to return to zero;
SOL fell below $110, hitting a new low in nearly a year; the price of SOL peaked after the issuance of the TRUMP token and failed to break through the $300 integer mark; Solana’s TVL reached 53.8 million SOL, a new high since June 2022, but with the sharp drop in SOL prices, the TVL of the Solana chain (denominated in USDT) has fallen by more than 50% from its historical high in late January.
Mainstream Coins
BTC fell to around $77,000 this morning. Last week, $165 million flowed out of BTC ETF, and the capital was sluggish. Today, the AHR999 index is 0.67, indicating that it is suitable for long-termists to invest regularly;
ETH fell below the $1,600 mark, hitting a three-year low; the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell below 0.02, also hitting a four-year low;
Altcoins generally fell, the market lacked hot spots, the crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 23, and the market was in a state of “extreme panic”.
Macro News: The United States announced a reciprocal tariff policy, and U.S. stocks fell sharply
On April 4, the global capital market ushered in a historic moment - the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively staged a “free fall”, setting the largest single-day drop in recent years. After falling 3.98% on April 3, on April 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 5.50% to close at 38,314.86 points, the darkest trading day since the circuit breaker storm in June 2020. This is also the first time that the index has fallen by more than 1,500 points for two consecutive days. The S&P 500 index, which fell 4.84% on April 3, plunged another 5.97% on April 4, closing at 5,074.08 points. The two-day decline is close to the record of the “century crash” in March 2020 (-12.51%). On April 4, the Nasdaq index plunged 962.82 points to close at 15,587.79 points, evaporating more than $2.3 trillion in market cap in a single day; the two-day decline was nearly 12%.
The United States announced a series of reciprocal tariff measures last week. Under the impact of the new round of tariffs, U.S. stock futures fell sharply, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury 10-year yields both fell, the spot price of gold rose, and the Federal Reserve’s expectations for interest rate cuts increased (the expected number of interest rate cuts in 2025 increased from 3 times before the tariff announcement to 3.5 times), reflecting that this market transaction is not stagflation, but recession.
Lian Ping, Chief Economist of Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, believes that more investors will look to a weaker dollar in the future and choose more reliable and stable assets. Amid concerns about the expansion of global economic and trade conflicts, investors are increasingly demanding to optimize their global asset allocation, and funds may continue to flow into safe-haven assets such as gold under risk aversion.
These complex signals suggest that the market is not pricing in “the end of bad news” but rather predicting “a bigger storm” and that investors are using “hedging structural adjustments” to deal with uncertainty.
