SOL Price Drops Below $130: FTX Unlock Shockwave and Future Trends Amid Ecosystem Struggles

In March 2025, Solana (SOL) once again became the focus of the market. After the price surged to $295 in mid-January due to the issuance of the TRUMP token, SOL failed to hold above the $300 mark and then entered a volatile downward channel. As of the time of writing, SOL is priced at $126.5, with a 24-hour decline of 9.18%, and its market cap has shrunk to $64.1 billion (ranked 6th). Behind this round of decline, there are short-term emotional impacts from the unlocking of FTX bankruptcy assets, as well as the long-term game between Solana’s ecosystem growth and market selling pressure.

SOL current situation analysis: From “TRUMP frenzy” to “unlock anxiety”

In January 2025, the official Trump meme coin TRUMP chose the Solana chain for issuance, directly stimulating the trading volume and gas fee revenue on the SOL chain, promoting SOL price Rising from $180 to $295, an increase of over 60%. However, the market value of the TRUMP token quickly collapsed after reaching $80 billion (current price $11.14), causing a shrink in SOL demand, and the price fell below $200.

On March 1st, 11.2 million SOL (approximately $2.06 billion) from the FTX bankruptcy assets were officially unlocked. Although the actual increase in circulation is limited, market concerns have already begun to ferment. In the previous three rounds of auctions, Galaxy Trading purchased 25.52 million SOL at $64 each (locked for 4 years), while Pantera Capital and Figure Markets purchased partial shares at $95 and $102 respectively. The current SOL price (around $130) is still higher than the cost price for most institutions, but the long-term unlocking mechanism has put the market on edge.

Galaxy only releases 530,000 SOL (about $100 million) per month, short-term actual selling pressure can be controlled, but retail investors’ excessive reaction to the ‘unlocking’ may lead to irrational selling. Institutional investors like Pantera have a cost basis close to the current price, if they choose to take profits, it may trigger a follow-up selling; but if they are betting on the long-term value of the Solana ecosystem, they may choose to hold.

On the technical side, SOL’s daily line has fallen below the $130 mark. If it cannot quickly regain this level, it may test the $120 mark (the high point before the start of the 2024 bull market) or even the psychological support level of $100. The weekly MACD has crossed downwards, RSI has entered oversold territory, and a significant increase in trading volume is needed for a short-term rebound.

Medium and Long-term Logic: Can ecological demand offset selling pressure?

Solana still maintains high throughput and low fees to retain the stickiness of meme coins and DeFi users. By January 2025, the on-chain daily active addresses will exceed 5 million, and DEX trading volume will consistently rank in the top three. Competition is coming from Ethereum L2 (such as Base chain), Avalanche subnets, and other rivals accelerating market share erosion. If ecosystem innovation stagnates, SOL’s demand side will be under pressure.

Galaxy holds 25.52 million SOL, which will be continuously released over the next 48 months, equivalent to approximately 0.4% of the circulation being injected into the market each month. If the simultaneous ecological growth cannot absorb the incremental supply, SOL may fall into a “slow bear” pattern.

SOL price future price deduction: three potential paths

• Optimistic scenario (target price: $200-250): Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 drives the altcoin season, and new popular applications emerge in the Solana ecosystem (such as AI+DeFi projects). Institutions remain firm in locking positions, successfully hedging against unlocked selling pressure.
• Neutral scenario (target price: $100-150): The market remains volatile, the Solana ecosystem is developing steadily but without breakthrough progress, Galaxy’s monthly unlocks trigger intermittent declines, and the price fluctuates in a box pattern.
• Bearish Scenario (Target Price: <80 US dollars): The cryptocurrency market enters a bear market, FTX unlocking triggers a sell-off stampede, Solana’s on-chain activity is halved, and institutional collective stop-loss exacerbates the decline.

SOL Future Outlook

Waiting for the market to digest the FTX unlocking sentiment, focusing on the outcome of the $130 battle. Be cautious of accelerated decline if it breaks below $120 on high volume. SOL long-term layout validation points: Solana on-chain TVL back above $10 billion; Top institutions (such as Pantera) publicly state long-term holding of unlocked tokens; Bitcoin breaking previous highs driving market risk appetite recovery.

The short-term pain of SOL is essentially a repricing of the market for ‘liquidity increment’ and ‘ecosystem value’. Despite the phase pressure brought by FTX unlocking, the technical advantage of Solana and the developer community cannot be ignored. For investors, the key to this game is: who can prove themselves faster - the real demand created by the ecological application, or the supply flood represented by the unlocked tokens? Before the answer is revealed, caution may be more important than enthusiasm.