Daily News | BTC ETF Experienced A Single-day Outflow Of $935 Million, ETH Market Share Is About To Fall Below 10%

Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETF’s single-day outflow amount hit a record high, ETH may be on the verge of a “death cross”

According to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $935 million yesterday, of which Fidelity FBTC had an outflow of $344 million, BlackRock IBIT had an outflow of $162 million, and Bitwise BITB had an outflow of $88 million; this was also the largest single-day outflow amount since the BTC ETF went online.

Yesterday, the Ethereum spot ETF saw an outflow of $50 million, of which Grayscale ETHE saw an outflow of $27.1 million, Fidelity FETH saw an outflow of $12.5 million, and BlackRock ETHA data has not been updated yet.

Opinion: Altcoin bulls may already be fully invested, and any new US dollar funds may only flow into Bitcoin

QCP Asia released its February 25 market observations, which are as follows: “Bitcoin has finally broken out of its range, falling below $90,000 for the first time in a month and currently hovering below that level, triggering more than $200 million in liquidations in the past few hours.

Sentiment remains under pressure following Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico and restrict Chinese investment. As Bitcoin prices move lower, short-term options hedging activity has increased, with 1-month implied volatility now back above 50, while options skewness interestingly remains largely unchanged.

From a broader perspective, despite the data that was previously seen as causing weakness in the broader market, the stock, fixed income and gold markets have largely digested these impacts, while Bitcoin has remained sideways. The increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization share and the decline in Altcoin prices indicate that Altcoin bulls may have been fully invested, and any new US dollar inflows will only flow into Bitcoin.

We remain cautious. Recent demand for Bitcoin has been driven primarily by institutions such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, which have raised capital through the issuance of equity-linked notes. Given that crypto-related issuance has accounted for about 19% of total issuance over the past 14 months, the market for such financing may be close to saturation - which could dampen future performance.”

Analysis: ETH technical indicators are on the verge of a “death cross” pattern

Ethereum prices fell more than 5% to $2,375 on Tuesday, with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on track to fall below its 200-day SMA, confirming a so-called “death cross,” CoinDesk reported.

The pattern suggests that short-term momentum is about to fall below its long-term average, which could evolve into a major bearish trend. Although the indicator has a mixed record in predicting price trends, it often lets momentum traders chase downside moves in the market.

Other major tokens are also under pressure, with tokens such as BNB, SOL, DOGE, and LINK trading below their 200-day moving average, just like ETH. The 200-day moving average is widely considered a barometer of long-term trends, and a break below it is associated with bearish sentiment.

Currently, BTC, XRP, TRON, ADA, and XLM are all hovering above their 200-day SMA.

If Bitcoin falls below $86,000, the cumulative long order liquidation intensity of mainstream CEX will reach 269 million

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin falls below $86,000, the cumulative long order liquidation strength of mainstream CEX will reach 269 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks through $89,000, the cumulative short order liquidation strength of mainstream CEX will reach 523 million.

The liquidation chart does not show the exact number of contracts to be liquidated, or the exact value of the contracts to be liquidated. The columns on the liquidation chart actually show the importance of each liquidation cluster relative to the adjacent liquidation clusters, that is, the strength. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the extent to which the underlying price will be affected when it reaches a certain position. A higher “liquidation column” means that the price will react more strongly to the liquidity wave after it reaches it.

Market Trends: PNUT, MOODENG and other stocks rebounded, and the AI ​​Agent track regained market favor

Market Hotspots

Trending meme sectors such as PNUT, MOODENG, and CHILLGUY rebounded. The meme narrative was the biggest narrative of the Solana chain in the past year, but after the TRUMP meme coin was issued on the Solana chain, the meme coins of the Solana chain basically showed a downward trend, and the market capital siphoning effect was obvious; next week, nearly $2 billion of SOL will be unlocked, and the price of SOL and Solana ecosystem projects, meme coins, etc. may be under pressure again;

AI Agent sectors such as ALCH, PIPPIN, ZEREBRO, SWARMS, and AIXBT rebounded. The sectors that rebounded first when the market fell were obviously more favored by funds. The AI ​​track is still the most mainstream track in the crypto industry.

Mainstream Coins

BTC fell sharply, once hitting the $86,000 mark, with the highest intraday decline exceeding 10%, and the price hit a new low since November 2024. BTC ETF has experienced net outflows for a week in a row; today’s AHR999 index is 0.96, indicating that the current price is suitable for long-termists to invest;

ETH is still mainly following the market, and ETHD has gained some support at around 10%; but based on ETH’s performance in the past six months, it seems that it is almost certain that ETHD will fall below 10%;

Altcoins rebounded from oversold levels and no longer followed the decline of the broader market. Most Altcoins have fallen 90% from their historical highs, leaving little room for further decline in the short term.

Macro News: US stocks mixed, US bonds fell again

The three major U.S. stock indexes fluctuated, with the S&P 500 falling 0.47% to 5,955.25 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.37% to 43,621.16 points, and the Nasdaq falling 1.35% to 19,026.39 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 4.30%, and the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy rate, was 4.07%.

The market is concerned about the decline in consumer confidence, the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations and trade tensions. This week, the latest consumer confidence survey results released by the US Conference Board were significantly lower than expected, further exacerbating market concerns about the US economic outlook. In addition, recent manufacturing data and retail sales data were also lower than expected, showing the weakness of US economic growth. These weak economic data have hit investors’ confidence in the US stock market, and they have turned to safe-haven assets.

Despite the many headwinds facing the U.S. stock market, expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising. As uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies weighs on business expectations, confidence has grown that the U.S. economy is weakening and rate cuts will resume. Traders have increased bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, showing the market’s optimistic expectations for the future direction of monetary policy.