Daily News | BTC fell below $94,000, Meme and AI remain mainstream narratives for the future
Crypto Daily Digest: BTC ETF continued to experience large outflows last Friday, with BlackRock showing rare data on outflows
According to Farside Investors data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $277 million last Friday. BlackRock IBIT had a net outflow of $72.7 million, Fidelity FBTC had a net outflow of $71.9 million, and Ark ARKB had a net outflow of $87 million.
Last Friday, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of $75.1 million. BlackRock’s ETHA outflow was $103 million, and Fidelity’s FETH inflow was $13 million.
Data: Ethereum staking rate has reached 27.9%, and Lido market share has reached 28.36%
According to Dune Analytics data, the total amount of Ethereum beacon-chain staking reached 34,213,997 ETH, with staking ETH accounting for 27.9% of the total supply. Lido’s market share in the liquidity staking protocol reached 28.36%. In addition, ETH saw a net increase of 16,047,943 ETH after Shanghai Upgrade.
This week’s unlocking data list: IMX, DBX and other tokens will receive large unlocking amounts
According to Token Unlocks data, tokens such as IMX and DBX will receive large unlocks this week, including:
-Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 12.86 million tokens at 15:00 Beijing time on December 25, with a ratio of 0.44% to the current flow and a value of approximately $13.22 million;
-Cardano (ADA) will unlock approximately 18.53 million tokens at 8:00 am Beijing time on December 26, with a ratio of 0.05% to current circulation and a value of approximately $16.3 million;
-Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 am Beijing time on December 27, with a current flow ratio of 1.45% and a value of approximately $32.12 million;
-Beldex (DBX) will unlock approximately 330 million tokens at 8:00 am Beijing time on December 30, with a current flow ratio of 4.78% and a value of approximately $25.46 million;
Bitcoin has closed down 6 times in December and closed up 5 times in its history, and has emerged from bull markets after Christmas 4 times in the past 5 years
According to Coinglass data, out of the 11 “December” market trends in Bitcoin‘s history, there were 6 closing declines and 5 closing gains. The largest monthly increase occurred in December 2020, when the monthly increase reached 46.92%. The largest monthly decline occurred in December 2013, when the monthly decline reached 34.81%.
However, it is worth noting that in history, every time Bitcoin closed up in September, it was able to rise until the end of the year (continuously rising in October, November, and December), and Bitcoin closed up 7.35% in September this year, setting a record for the best September performance in history.
In addition, or because the first quarter is usually the quarter for asset management companies to conduct annual fund allocation, in the past 5 years (2019-2023), there have been 4 years where bull markets have emerged during Christmas, and only one time in 2021 where a decline began after Christmas (the previous bull peak).
Market Trends: PNUT and GOAT rebounded significantly from the bottom, while Meme and AI remain the mainstream narratives of the future
Market Hotspots
-The Meme sector saw a significant rebound from the bottom, including PNUT and GOAT, both new tokens in this round of market trends. PNUT benefited from the support of Musk and Trump before and after the US election, while GOAT was the leading token in the AI meme market in the early stages;
-Many Trump concept tokens on the chain have surged, but the trading volume is not large. Market views believe that before and after Trump takes office on January 20 next year, it may stimulate a wave of the Altcoin market, and the Trump concept meme coins appearing on the chain may be an early ambush;
Mainstream Coins
-BTC fell sharply below $93,000 last Friday evening, rebounded to around $99,500 on Saturday, and then fell again. Currently, it is consolidating around $94,000. Last Thursday, BTC ETF saw a record-high daily outflow, and the market may continue to adjust in the short term;
-ETH kept up and down in sync with the market without independent trends. In this round of surge, ETH still did not break through the historical high of $4,800;
-Altcoins generally fell, and the meme and AI sectors both came to a halt. Currently, these two sectors are still the main market narratives for the future.
Macro News: The three major US stock indices rose by over 1%, indicating a continued trend toward loose monetary policy
The three major US stock indices all rose over 1%, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.09% to 5,930.85 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.18% to 42,840.26 points; The Nasdaq index rose 1.03% to 19,572.60 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 4.52%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, most sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate, is 4.30%.
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as scheduled, which theoretically should be positive for the US stock market. However, after the announcement of the interest rate cut decision, the market reaction was intense, with US bond yields significantly rising, the US dollar soaring, and the three major US stock indexes suffering setbacks. The negative reaction in the market is rooted in the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on the future path of interest rate cuts. In other words, the market had already digested the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut before the meeting, and investors are more concerned about how the rate cut will be implemented in 2025.
The December dot plot shows that most officials are inclined to continue cutting interest rates in 2025, but the number of rate cuts has decreased from 4 in September to 2. In recent months, the US economy has remained resilient, inflation remains sticky, and the upcoming new government may bring inflation challenges. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve’s tendency to further relax monetary policy still exists, but caution and patience are needed at this stage.
