Daily News | Halving is Coming, JPMorgan Analysts Say "BTC Will Definitely Fall after Halving"; Data Availability Protocol Avail Announced 600M Token Airdrops

2024-04-19, 04:05

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## Crypto Daily Digest: JPMorgan analysts say that "Bitcoin will definitely fall after halving"; data availability protocol Avail announced 600 million token airdrops 
First, let's look at <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs' trading activities. According to Farside Investor data, on April 18, Grayscale GBTC funds flowed out of $90 million. Meanwhile, Fidelity Bitcoin spot ETF (FBTC) inflow of $37.4 million, Bitwise Bitcoin spot ETF (BITB) inflow of $12.8 million, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin spot ETF (ARKB) inflow of $9.5 million, and WisdomTree Bitcoin spot ETF (BTCW) net inflow of $6.6 million.

JPMorgan analysts believe that Bitcoin prices will fall after being halved, and the market has already reflected this event. The current price of Bitcoin is $61,942.3.

Analyst Nikolaos Panigrtzoglou pointed out in a report on Wednesday that "we do not expect Bitcoin prices to rise after halving, as the market has already priced this event." This view is similar to their previous opinions. The analyst explained, "In fact, we believe that there may be a downward trend in Bitcoin prices after halving for several reasons."

One of the reasons is that Bitcoin is still in an overbought state, as can be seen from the analysis of open contracts in Bitcoin futures. In addition, they also pointed out that compared to gold, the price of Bitcoin is still much higher than JPMorgan's adjusted price of $45,000 and still higher than the expected production cost of $42,000 after halving.

Analysts mentioned that despite the recovery in the crypto market, crypto venture capital has been lukewarm so far this year, which may also cause a drag on the price of Bitcoin after halving.

Meanwhile, as unprofitable Bitcoin miners exit the Bitcoin network, it is expected that their computing power will significantly decrease, and listed Bitcoin miners will dominate the market share. After halving, some Bitcoin mining companies may consider diversifying investments into regions with lower energy costs, such as Latin America or Africa, to reuse their inefficient mining equipment to obtain residual value.

"Unification Drop is a unified force that brings different communities together, rewarding developers, governance contributors, technical educators, roll-up users, pledgers, and other valuable contributors from multiple blockchain communities," Avail said on April 18.

Avail is a Web3 infrastructure layer built using <a href="/price/polygon-matic" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Polygon</a>'s software development suite, which will airdrop 600 million native AVAIL tokens to users. Avail was established in 2020, and Avail DA has further improved basic layer transactions by expanding aggregation through methods such as KZG commitment and data availability sampling.

Avail is used to obtain Avail DA services, protect the unified layer through staking, and participate in governance. Tokens are airdropped based on the total time, depth, and impact of user commitments to the ecosystem. After the mainnet goes online, 354,605 wallet addresses will receive AVAIL tokens airdropped.

Data availability enables nodes to verify bundled transactions without downloading all data from the block. Meanwhile, the common KZG commitment in zero-knowledge protocols allows for verifying underlying data without disclosing personal information. Meanwhile, Avail Nexus provides users a cross-chain bridge for asset transactions or exchanges across multiple blockchains. Finally, Avail Fusion allows for liquidity staking of <a href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a>, Bitcoin, and other assets.

## Market Trends: BTC halving in less than one day with weak market rebound
The overall crypto market has experienced a weak rebound, with Bitcoin briefly rebounding above $64,000 but currently falling back to around $61,000. Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days. Less than a day away from Bitcoin halving, it will happen on April 20. Regarding macroeconomics, the US stock market has experienced volatility, with Federal Reserve Chairman Bostek stating that inflation levels are too high and it is expected that interest rates will not be lowered before the end of the year.
### Market Hotspots:
Domestic concept tokens such as ONG, ONT, <a href="/price/neo-neo" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">NEO</a>, GAS, and QTUM have shown impressive performance in yesterday's rebound. These projects are all domestic concept currencies that have experienced multiple rounds of bull and bear, but it is worth noting that their pull is not sustainable.

Modular public chain Avail announces airdrop: Avail announces airdrop of tokens to testnet users, MATIC stakers, and other active Layer2 users. Avail's competitors include Celestia and Eigenlayer, among others. This news may attract more users to participate in the Avail project and impact its token prices.

In summary, the overall performance of crypto market prices is weak. With the BTC halving happening in less than one day, significant market fluctuations may occur before and after the halving. Investors need to monitor market trends and adjust their investment strategies promptly.

## Macro: Continued tension in the Middle East, rising US dollar, and sustained rise in gold and crude oil
The US stock market closed almost flat on Thursday, as investors carefully scrutinized the latest corporate financial reports. Economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near future. Economic data shows that the labor market remains resilient, with the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits per week remaining the same as the previous week.

The S&P 500 index has fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day due to the recent difficulties in the stock market after a five-month rise starting in November, partly due to expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the first half of this year.

On the positive side, after META and Bernstein raised their target price from $535 to $590, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.54%, the biggest boost to the S&P 500 index.

There are reports of a sharp escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, with Asian stock and bond yields falling on Friday while safe haven currencies, gold, and crude oil rose.

The Asian market is expected to end a sluggish week with a positive tone on Friday, but due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, worsening global sentiment, and unwillingness to take on too much risk before the weekend, it may limit the market's upward momentum.

Major news from the global financial community in Washington continues to make traders nervous, especially regarding exchange rates and central bank policy paths relative to the increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve. The US dollar has remained strong, rising 3% in the past few weeks, reaching its highest since November.

US bond yields rose again and will rise for the third week in a row, with the yield of two-year treasury bond bonds rising to 5%. In the past few weeks, the yield of two-year and 10-year treasury bond has risen by 40-45 basis points.

Asian stock markets are facing their biggest weekly decline since January, with the MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) index falling 2.3% this week, down 5% from its high last week. This is the tightening of financial conditions that emerging markets strive to cope with.

Due to concerns about supply issues in the Middle East, Brent crude oil futures rose 3% to $89.74 per barrel.

Gold rose 1.3% to $2,409.45, gradually approaching last week's historical high of $2,431.29.

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<div>Author:**Sherry S. & Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
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