Daily News | SEC May Be Forced to Approve BTC Spot ETFs, Vitalik Buterin's Speech Pushed RAI Up by Over 80%, Investors Eye Unlocking of 7 Tokens This Week

Crypto Daily Digest: The SEC may be forced to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs, Vitalik Buterin’s speech pushed RAI up by over 80%

The SEC may be forced to approve the application for Bitcoin spot ETFs.

According to The Block, a research report by JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigrtzoglou shows that Grayscale’s recent victory suggests that the SEC may be forced to approve pending Bitcoin spot ETF applications from various asset management companies, including Grayscale.

Analysts believe that the SEC needs to withdraw its previous approval for futures-based Bitcoin ETFs to justify its “rejection of Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Bitcoin trust fund into an ETF”. However, analysts added that this move “is very awkward and disruptive for investors and seems unlikely.”

Although the SEC has postponed all ETFs until October, there is no reason to refuse to pass them unless a new resolution is provided.

So from all aspects of information, approval is a matter of time. If a new reason is found not to pass in October this year, it will be postponed to next year. Therefore, whether it is this year or next, the expectation of passing has always been, and I believe approval will be obtained at the latest next year.

Alternatively, influenced by Vitalik’s comments, the Reflexer token based on RAI’s stablecoin protocol has risen by over 80% within 24 hours, and is now quoted at $13.5. It is understood that Vitalik Buterin, when participating in the Reflexer Finance Discord discussion, stated that RAI, as the first stablecoin on the Reflexer platform, may become an active supporter of non-popular liquid staking derivatives (LSDs).

In addition, as early as March 11th, the address marked Vitalik had just deposited 500 ETHs into Reflexer to cast 150,000 RAIs.

Regarding data, the spot trading volume of the Decentralized Trading Platform (DEX) in August reached $22.19 billion, a new low since December 2020 ($21.9 billion). Among them, the market share of Uniswap in August was 55.34%, a decrease of about 5 percentage points from 60.55% in July.

The spot trading volume of CEX in August was $422.95 billion, a new low since October 2020 (with a monthly trading volume of $226.58 billion). In addition, the market share of Binance spot trading has declined, dropping from 46.88% in July to 45.42% in August.

Token Unlocks data shows that tokens for 7 projects will be unlocked once this week, with only IMX and HFT unlocking amounts exceeding one million US dollars. Among them:

At 3:06 am (UTC) on September 4th, Tornado Cash will unlock 22,800 TORNs (worth approximately $61,000), accounting for approximately 1.51% of the circulation volume;

At 0:00 am (UTC) on September 5th, Liquid will unlock 657,000 LQTY units (worth approximately $541,000), accounting for approximately 0.7% of the circulation volume;

At noon (UTC) on September 5th, Galxe will unlock 416,000 GALs (worth approximately $466,000), accounting for approximately 0.9% of the circulation volume;

At 7:54 pm (UTC) on September 5th, LooksRare will unlock 12.5 million LOOKS (worth approximately $674,000), accounting for approximately 2.29% of the circulation volume;

At 0:00 am (UTC) on September 7th, Hashflow will unlock 3.23 million HFTs (worth approximately $1.07 million), accounting for approximately 1.84% of the circulation volume;

At 0:00 am (UTC) on September 8th, Moonbeam will unlock 3.04 million GLMRs (worth approximately $563,000), accounting for approximately 0.42% of the circulation volume;

At 10:00 pm (UTC) on September 8th, ImmutableX will unlock 18.08 million IMXs (worth approximately $9.81 million), accounting for approximately 1.61% of the circulation.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

At the beginning of the month, BTC experienced a decline to $25,333 and stabilized. The mid-term structure potentially forms an M-shaped trend or a head and shoulders pattern. If it is an M-shaped trend, a short entry may be considered when it falls below the previous low of $25,165, with a target of $24,222. If a head and shoulders pattern forms, it may lure buyers into pushing the price to $30,203, followed by a rapid decline, potentially marking the end of this year’s high market.

WLD

In the short term, WLD seems to be holding its previously identified support level at $1.090 and may experience a secondary rebound. However, the mid-term structure remains bearish. It is advised to adopt a quick-in, quick-out strategy for rebounds, with upside targets at $1.142 and $1.193.

CYBER

Building Online Presence and Popularity: The CYBER project aimed to generate sufficient market attention and secondary liquidity by launching on LaunchPool. This step was crucial in attracting attention to the secondary market and laying the foundation for subsequent strategies.

Attracting Spot Investors through Ongoing Volatility: After launching on CYBER, price volatility continued to align with the Fibonacci sequence, with a stable base price of $3.53. This phase focused on consolidating market stability, even during broader market downturns, to prevent massive sell-offs.

Accumulating Contract Positions and Volatility-Driven Trading: During the aforementioned phase, market makers gradually built a substantial number of contract positions through relatively low-cost trading strategies. Data from various exchange contracts showed a gradual increase in contract market capitalization, ranging from $52 million to $96 million during the night of August 29th to the morning of August 30th. The secondary market achieved the initial target of $8.185, but contract market positions did not decrease; in fact, they increased, indicating that the initial positions were not fully closed. Subsequently, the market experienced high volatility.

This process also involved taking advantage of liquidations in the contract market to further increase long positions (leveraging negative funding rates). The key was that market makers still controlled the spot market price, minimizing risks associated with the trading of contract positions.

Liquidation and Contract Market Profits: The liquidation strategy for CYBER was crucial. Market makers established a significant number of high short positions in the contract market and induced retail investors to open long positions through negative premiums and high funding rates.

How did CYBER achieve this in such a short period? The price spike reached $16.10, aligning with the contract market’s funding rate at its maximum negative rate of -2.50%. In just five minutes, the price reached $16.50, precisely aligning with a Fibonacci sequence peak, and the maximum negative funding rate rapidly increased to -0.162%.

This suggests substantial capital deployment in the contract short position market, possibly through high-frequency trading, effectively utilizing differences between the spot and contract markets to maximize significant profits in a short timeframe.

In the world of finance, capital rules all. Empty cups make no sound, but filled ones can lead to inebriation. Do you think there is still a short-term play here? It appears that opportunities are diminishing as interest wanes.

Macro: Non-farm data soft landing, US stock market closed, focus on crypto trends

The non-farm report released last Friday, although in line with the trend of a “soft landing,” the US dollar index quickly rebounded from intraday lows and closed up 0.64% at 104.28 due to Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester’s “hawking” suggestion of continued tightening.

The US Treasury yield hit a three-week low after the non-farm report, but then rebounded as well, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising from 4.11% to 4.18%; The two-year US Treasury yield saw a small intraday increase of less than 2 basis points.

Spot gold briefly broke the $1,950 mark after the announcement of the non-agricultural sector, but then fell sharply due to the “cold water” poured by Messer, dropping nearly $20, closing 0.02% lower at $1,939.9/ounce. Spot silver fell for three consecutive trading days, closing down 1.05%.

After the August quarterly survey in the United States, the non-farm employment-population recorded 187,000; The unemployment rate recorded at 3.8%, a new high since February last year. Both data were higher than expected. After the data is released, the market has a low probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year. The swap market fully priced the time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points from June next year to May.

The Federal Reserve’s Meister stated that despite signs of a better balance in the US labor market, the US labor market remains strong. She also pointed out that inflation is still too high and future interest rate decisions will be based on upcoming data releases.

This Monday is a Labor Day holiday in the United States, and the US market will be closed. We will focus on the trends in the crypto market.