Daily News | SBF May Face 115 Years In Prison; The Halving Event Will Reduce Bitcoin Selling Pressure by 50%

2023-11-03, 04:34

[//]:content-type-MARKDOWN-DONOT-DELETE
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/16989941051103.jpg)
## Crypto Daily Digest: ProShares Launches Short Ethereum Futures ETFs, SBFs May Face 115 Years in Prison

On Thursday, ProShares announced that the company is launching its first ETF that allows investors to bearish <a href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a>, and the ProShares short Ethereum strategy aims to provide the opposite daily performance of the Standard&Poor's CME Ethereum Futures Index.

In other words, if the index falls by 1%, ETFs will seek a 1% return. Like other cryptocurrency ETFs, the new product is linked to Ethereum's futures contracts, rather than the spot price of tokens.

In the SBF trial, yesterday a jury of 12 jurors ruled that former FTX CEO SBF was guilty. Federal prosecutors have charged SBF with seven counts of fraud and conspiracy.

During the month long trial, the prosecution submitted nearly 20 witnesses, while the defense only had 3 witnesses. SBF himself also testified in court. SBF is awaiting judgment. Subsequently, a hearing will be held, and Judge Lewis Kaplan will decide on the judgment of SBF. According to the previous news, the jury has started considering seven counts of fraud and conspiracy faced by SBF. Twelve jurors must reach a consensus on each of the seven charges in order to make a verdict.

If all charges are found, SBF will face up to 115 years in prison, which prosecutors call “one of the largest financial fraud cases in American history.”

The sentencing of SBF is scheduled for March 28, 2024. SBF's defense lawyers opposed Kaplan's multiple rulings before and during the trial, and are expected to appeal the verdict.

On November 3rd, Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, stated in an interview with CNBC that the halving event will reduce BTC selling pressure by 50% due to the increasing demand for BTC in spot <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs. He also stated that Bitcoin is a digital technology investment and does not have to bear the risks and responsibilities of large technology companies.

## Today’s Main Token Trends
### BTC
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1698994185BTC 14.43.30.png)
This week, the highest point for Bitcoin was at $35,985, almost reaching the expected level of $36,000. It has rebounded above the moving average with increased volume, indicating that a short-term direction is about to be chosen.

Short-term Analysis for Both Directions: The "bullish trend" continues to rise with the moving average unbroken, aiming for the $36,000 key level and facing resistance at $37,795. On the other hand, the "bearish trend" broke below the moving average, retraced to the support at $33,215, and formed a head and shoulders pattern after a short rebound, suggesting a possible decline.

### ETH
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1698994227ETH 14.43.30.png)
In the short term, Ethereum made a second attempt to break the $1,857 resistance but failed. The market's trading volume is notably weak, and the daily chart aligns with the descending channel. Short-term outlook remains bearish. A conservative bearish approach targets $1,754 and $1,726 while maintaining support at the $1,815 key level.

### BCH 
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1698994248BCH 14.43.30.png)
Although a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern has appeared in the medium term, short-term operations suggest a bearish trend with an "M" head bearish structure. The lower support is at $225.23. Medium-term strategy awaits a break above the $269.08 neckline for a bullish turnaround, targeting $296.78 and $315 once broken.

## Macro: The United States has not yet emerged from the shadow of recession, and the probability of raising interest rates next year is only 20%

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new low in nearly three weeks, closing at 4.66%, while the two-year US Treasury yield fell below 5.0% in consecutive days, closing at 4.99%. After the release of initial unemployment claims in the United States, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new low for the day, while the long-term US Treasury yield fell by over 10 basis points during the session for two consecutive days.

The US dollar index accelerated its decline to a one week low, closing 0.48% lower at 106.16. The pound rose to a high in over a week against the US dollar, while the yen briefly regained its 150 level against the US dollar. The decline of the US dollar pushed gold to rebound, and spot gold briefly returned above the 1990 level, closing 0.18% higher at $1985.91 per ounce; Spot silver closed 0.81% lower at $22.76 per ounce.

The three major US stock indexes opened high and rose, with the Dow Jones Index closing 1.7% higher, the S&P 500 Index closing 1.89% higher, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closing 1.78% higher.

Economist Nouriel Roubini said that the United States is currently facing two risks that could lead to an economic recession.

The "Dr. Doomsday" economist, known for his continued bearish outlook on the market and economy, pointed out that despite strong economic growth and labor market strength in the United States, the risk of recession still persists.

On Thursday, he stated in an interview that although it appears more likely to achieve a soft landing now than a year ago, the risk of a mild recession cannot be ignored, and there are still two forces that could push the United States into a recession.

He stated that the first risk is the possibility of the economy not landing, where GDP growth remains strong while core inflation remains high. Roubini warned that this would lead to another rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which could excessively tighten the financial environment and push the United States into recession.

The second risk is that the conflict between Israel and Hamas may spread to other regions of the region, which may encourage major oil producing countries such as Iran to participate, potentially leading to a 50% surge in oil prices and causing stagflation shocks like in the 1970s, leading to economic recession.

Roubini said, “Therefore, you cannot rule out the possibility of a short-term, mild recession in the United States next year, although it currently seems that this possibility is not as good as a soft landing.”

But the stock market does not seem to reflect these risks, and Roubini expects investors who bet on the control of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to be surprised in the end. If the conflict spreads, the stock market may continue its recent adjustment and fall into a bear market. Roubini warned that, at the same time, as investors flocked to safe haven assets such as US treasury bond bonds, the yield of US Treasuries may decline significantly.

Roubini also warned, “The financial market, whether it's the oil market, bond market, stock market, or even the gold market, underestimates the possibility of these conflicts evolving into regional conflicts. I think the possibility of the second scenario occurring is quite high.”

Although the Federal Reserve has opened the door for possible future rate hikes, most investors seem to believe that its rate hike cycle has come to an end. According to the Federal Reserve observation tool of Chishang Exchange, the market expects that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by another 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2024 is only 20% -25%.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

分享一下