🥂 Good morning, today is Friday, Nov. 25, 2022.

TL;DR

🔹 Thursday, Bitcoin closed slightly lower on the day while Ether closed higher. Trading volumes across global markets, including cryptocurrencies, were down due to the US markets closing thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday.

🔹 Correlations with the Dollar Index and Volatility Index have flatlined after Wednesday, while with Oil, the correlations have begun to rise exponentially.

🔹 The topic of the Day: Cryptocurrency community discusses regulation as the ultimate irony?

🔹 Happenings of the Week: EU adopts Digital Decade policy to build blockchain-based public services; Wallet maker Ledger launches crypto debit card in Europe; CoinList said its charging delays are technical Issues, not liquidity crunch…

⚡️ Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 16,538 (-1.12%)

⚡️ Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,195 (-0.50%)

Americans Love Their Big, Dry Chickens

On Thursday, US markets were closed on the Thanksgiving holiday which would explain the decline in volume across markets. However, the bullish sentiment was still strong following Wednesday’s FOMC minutes which revealed the Fed’s intention to slow rates as soon as 2023.

Bitcoin closed slightly lower on the day while Ether closed higher. Notably, BTC & ETH’s correlations with the Dollar Index and Volatility Index have flatlined after Wednesday. At the same time, the inverse correlations with Global Equity Indices have also begun to show signs of slowing.

Interestingly, correlations with US Oil Fund have begun to rise quickly (from 0.22 to 0.61 within a week for Bitcoin) while the inverse correlations with US Natural Gas Fund have dropped at a similar rate (from 0.29 to -0.31 within a week for Ether) following FOMC minutes.

Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp. said yesterday that its private clients are flocking to bonds and out of equities amid fears of a looming recession. Bond funds attracted inflows for a 39th straight week, strategists led by BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note. The strategists favor holding bonds in the first half of 2023, with equities becoming more attractive in the last six months of next year.

In a separate report by Bloomberg, economists at the Institute of International Finance say global growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2023 as it was in 2009 after the financial crisis. The Eurozone economy will shrink by 2% following sharp declines in consumer and business confidence.

In the US, the IIF expects GDP to rise 1%, while Latin America is the “positive standout,” expanding 1.2%, as commodity exporters reap the benefits of high food and energy prices.

The IIF also expects the single biggest driver for the global economy next year will be China, where loosening Covid restrictions are likely. The annual Central Economic Work Conference in early December may offer more clues on China’s economic path forward.

Reopening of the economy from Covid may drive a positive swing of inflows to China’s equities markets in 2023 equivalent to 1% of GDP, implying a stronger Yuan and weaker Dollar. Morgan Stanley is among those with high hopes for an acceleration of China’s economic opening in spring when the weather turns more friendly.

On Friday, Germany’s consumer confidence is the last potential market catalyst of the week. Today the US markets will also have a shortened session thanks to the Thanksgiving holiday. Next week except for Monday, the markets will likely be volatile as some of the largest countries in the world by GDP are set to report GDP, CPI and employment data.

5️⃣ Friday

07:00 UTC

Germany GfK Consumer Climate DEC

Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: -39.6; Previous: -41.9

• In NOV, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator in Germany edged higher to -41.9 from a revised -42.8 in October, and in line with market expectations.
• It is the first increase in consumer morale after four consecutive months of record low reading, but still points to a negative mood.
• In October, there was a slight improvement in both income expectations (-60.5 vs -67.7) and willingness to buy (-17.5 vs -19.5) while the business cycle expectations worsened (-22.2 vs -21.9).
• According to GfK consumer expert Rolf Buerkl, "it is certainly too early to speak of a trend reversal at the moment. The situation remains very tense for consumer sentiment. It remains to be seen whether the current stabilization will last, or in light of the coming winter, there is reason to fear a further deterioration of the situation.”

4️⃣ Thursday

09:00 UTC

Germany Ifo Business Climate NOV

Actual: 86.3; Consensus: 85; Previous: 84.3

• The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany rose by 1.8 points from the previous month to 86.3 in November 2022, the highest in three months and above market consensus of 85.0.
• Expectations for the coming months were significantly less pessimistic and were at three-month highs (80.0 vs 75.9 in October), with export expectations in industry rising just into positive territory.
• Also, more than half of the companies were concerned about supply bottlenecks, a number that was below October's level, while the pressure to increase prices fell with only 46.8% of the companies wanting to raise prices in the coming three months.
• On the other hand, the companies' assessments of their current situation deteriorated to the lowest level since February 2021 (93.1 vs 94.2).

💡 Today's Markets at 01:22 UTC

BTC -0.35%; Ether -0.64%.

Asia: Japan -0.16%; Hong Kong +0.07**%**; China -0.25%; India +1.19%.

Europe: London +0.01%; Paris +0.42%; Frankfurt +0.78%.

Index Futures: Dow +0.14%; S&P +0.26%; Nasdaq +0.46%.

US Two-year Treasury down 2bps at 4.444%.

US Ten-year Treasury down 2bps at 3.665%.

UK Ten-year Government up 2bps at 3.035%.

US Dollar Index +0.03% at 105.47.

FX: GBP: -0.01%; EUR: +0.04%; JPY: +0.17%; CNY: -0.11%.

Gold +0.11%; Brent Crude -0.08%.

👉 Catalyst remaining this week

• Friday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence

🗓 Catalysts next week

• Monday: None
• Tuesday: Germany CPI, Canada GDP
• Wednesday: US GDP, US Employment Change, China NBD PMI, India GDP, Eurozone CPI, France CPI, Italy CPI, Turkey GDP
• Thursday: China Caixin PMI, US Income & Spending, US ISM PMI, Japan Consumer Confidence, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Italy Unemployment Rate, Brazil GDP
• Friday: US Non-Farm Payroll & Unemployment Rate, Germany Balance of Trade, Canada Unemployment Rate

🏦 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
• Closest support zone: 16,400 - 16,220
• Key resistance level: 16,400 - 16,880

Analysis as of Nov. 25 - 27 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 16,400 - 16,880
2. 17,085 - 17,715
3. 17,875 - 18,246

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 16,400 - 16,220
2. 15,950 - 15,830
3. 15,525 - 15,200

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 16,630 - 16,280
• Closest resistance zone: 16,630 - 16,800
• Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)

Nov. 25 01:36 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $16,531, or -1.16% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 16,630 - 16,800
2. 16,875 - 17,085
3. 17,205 - 17,370

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 16,630 - 16,280
2. 15,860 - 15,580
3. 15,535 - 15,200

🌐 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
• Closest support zone: 1,110 - 1,060
• Key resistance zone: 1,180 - 1,265

Analysis as of Nov. 25 - 27 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,180 - 1,265
2. 1,310 - 1,345
3. 1,390 - 1,450

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,110 - 1,060
2. 1,035 - 990
3. 910 - 795

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,175 - 1,160
• Closest resistance zone: 1,220 - 1,240
• Key Level: 1,010 (Weekly High from Dec. 28, 2020 - Jan. 04, 2021)

Nov. 25 01:41 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,194, or -0.51% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,220 - 1,240
2. 1,255 - 1,270
3. 1,295 - 1,315

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,175 - 1,160
2. 1,140 - 1,120
3. 1,110 - 1,065

📌 Today's topic: Cryptocurrency community discusses regulation as the ultimate irony?

The entire cryptocurrency business is currently structured to extract fees from unsuspecting investors, said Jim Chanos, president of the world's largest short-sale fund firm, Nixie United Funds, in an interview yesterday.

Jim Chanos said, “the use case for cryptocurrencies has been changing over the last few years, at first it was said that it would be an alternative currency. Then it was said to be used to store value, and then it was said to be an inflation hedge. Ultimately, it's just a speculative asset, a speculative asset class with a very large cost structure.”

He added, “for the past few days, the cryptocurrency community has been talking and asking where the regulators are. It's really the greatest irony because the spirit of crypto was about really getting out of the regulatory environment and becoming an independent system. And now it's begging for the same thing.”

Do YOU think that the crypto market needs more regulation? Are crypto institutions in a regulatory vacuum really good for the long-term growth of the market?

👁 Happenings of The Week (Nov. 18 - 24):

📣 Notables

🔹 European Parliament adopts "EU Digital Decade" policy to build blockchain-based public services.

🔹 International Monetary Fund: Crypto Industry Needs Better Regulation.

🔹 Hong Kong Monetary Authority: Stablecoin mass redemptions may have a significant impact on the traditional financial system.

🔹 In their declaration, G20 leaders, including President Joe Biden, called for a global regulatory framework for crypto.

🔹 Singapore's deputy prime minister said he’ll take a tough stance on crypto speculation, especially targeting retail investors.

🔹 China's first metaverse computing center opened in Qingtian County, Zhejiang Province.

🔹 China's central bank and eight other departments are actively exploring the safe application of blockchain technology in financial scenarios such as transaction clearing.

🔹 China's City of Chengdu Releases Action Plan for Fostering The Metaverse Industry: To Complete Industry Chain by 2025

🔹 Bank of England: the UK needs digital pounds and should include cryptocurrencies in the scope of regulation.

🔹 South Korean government asks each crypto company to establish a tax collection system and intends to advance crypto taxation next year.

📣 Nov. 25

🔹 Solana Foundation Loses Over $180 Million Worth of Crypto Assets Due to FTX Bankruptcy.

🔹 Crypto Wallet Maker Ledger Launches Crypto Debit Card "Crypto Life" in Europe.

🔹 Amazon commissions independent film and TV production company AGBO for a TV series about FTX.

🔹 CoinList: Charging Delays are Technical Issues, Not Liquidity Crunch; Will Release Proof of Reserves

📣 Nov. 24

🔹 Vitalik Buterin: EIP-4844 is a key step in massive L2 cost reduction.

🔹 Crypto ATM Installations Plummeted This Year, with 87% of the Number in Stock in the U.S.

🔹 The Oxford Word of the Year invited the public to vote for the first time, and "metaverse" was selected as one of the top three WOTY.

🔹 Marvel director duo Russo Brothers and others will shoot an SBF-related series for Amazon.

🔹 ApeCoin pledge system will go live on December 5 and pledge rewards will start counting on December 12.

🔹 CryptoQuant: Mt. Gox Hacker-Related Address Moves 10,000 Bitcoins That Have Been Dormant for 7 Years.

🔹 SBF will make a public appearance on November 30 to speak with a New York Times columnist at the DealBook Summit but did not specify whether he would attend the event in person or conduct the interview via video conference.

🔹 Pepsi announced a new NFT Collection "Pepsi Black" on Polygon.

📣 Nov. 23

🔹 Zhu Su, who is considering starting a new investment firm, said, “the FTX collapse set the crypto industry back 7 to 8 years, the domino effect of FTX is just beginning, and more dominoes will fall.”

🔹 Apple bids for millions of dollars for the rights to the FTX bankruptcy novel, expected to be made into a feature film.

🔹 FTX bankruptcy lawyer: a large number of FTX assets were either stolen or lost, and SBF did not officially relinquish control until Nov. 11.

🔹 Sequoia Capital apologizes to investors for losing $150 Million in the FTX case, and says they’ll improve due diligence process moving forward.

🔹 Aave: Most CRV collateral positions have been liquidated, with $1.6 million of bad debt remaining.

📣 Nov. 22

🔹 Elon Musk to Twitter employees: No allowances, daycare, or team activities to cut down costs until financial situations improve internally.

🔹 Genesis says it may file for bankruptcy if it can't raise enough money.

🔹 Texas Securities Commission formally investigates NBA star Steph Curry and NFL star Tom Brady for their involvement in promoting cryptocurrency trading platform FTX in possible violation of U.S. securities laws.

🔹 U.S. Senators ask Fidelity to cancel Bitcoin Retirement Savings Plan.

📣 Nov. 21

🔹 Y-Combinator founder says “a trusted friend sees systemic risk in cryptocurrencies soon.”

🔹 Playboy's application to register NFT-related trademarks had been approved.

🔹 NEAR Protocol releases Staking Transparency Report which reported 469 Million NEARs were pledged or about 42% of the Total Supply.

🔹 JPMorgan Chase has registered the trademark "J.P. MORGAN WALLET”.

🔹 Ren 1.0 network to shut down in 30 days, officials suggest bridging Ren assets back to the native chain as soon as possible.

🔹 BTC Long-term Hodlers' losses are approaching the 2015 Bear Market.

🔹 The countries with the largest share of users before the FTX crash were South Korea, Singapore and Japan.

🔹 Porsche launches NFT page on its website and opens a Twitter account with the ETH symbol.

🔹 Sony filed a patent application for its technology described as "using tokens on a distributed ledger to track in-game unique digital assets.”

🔹 Vitalik Buterin: FTX incident is a "huge tragedy" and says cryptocurrencies have a long way to go to reach their full potential.

📣 Nov. 20

🔹 Bitcoin's third largest whale address outflows 1,800 BTC in the past week.

🔹 Trump reiterated that he has no intention of returning to Twitter.

🔹 CME CEO: We won't abandon crypto futures trading because of FTX's failure.

🔹 The Caribbean island nation of St. Nick is set to make BCH legal tender by 2023.

📣 Nov. 19

🔹 FTX announces the launch of a strategic review of its global assets and intends to sell or restructure certain businesses.

🔹 Grayscale: For security reasons, no on-chain wallet information will be disclosed via proof of reserve.

🔹 X2Y2 removed "custom royalty" and will enforce royalties on all NFTs.

🔹 The Ensign Group plans to launch a cryptocurrency hedge fund.

📣 Nov. 18

🔹 Oscar-nominated director David Darg and XTR Studios have begun production on the FTX documentary.

🔹 Tuvalu will be the first country to move into the metaverse as rising sea levels threaten survival.

🔹 New FTX CEO: Alameda had a "secret waiver" in the FTX auto-liquidation agreement.

🔹 Jump Crypto: no plans to close, still actively investing and trading.

🔹 ConsenSys Launches Ether Climate Platform ECP, Aims to Mitigate Energy Consumption Issues Prior to Ether Merger

📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Asset management and technology platform Fasanara Capital receives a $200 million mandate from the Canadian Pension Fund. Founded in 2011, Fasanara Capital, which describes itself as "a significant provider of liquidity to the crypto market," is understood to have just recently launched a $350 million fintech and crypto venture capital fund. Fasanara Capital CEO Francesco Filia said the latest $200 million in funding will help strengthen its portfolio companies, ensuring they have access to a range of financial products when they need them.

🔹 Web3 game publisher Fenix Games closes $150 million financing round with Cypher Capital and others. Fenix Games CEO and co-founder Chris Ko was previously SVP of Corporate Development at Mythical Games and has held general manager positions at Electronic Arts and Kabam, and prior to that was a portfolio manager at BlackRock and an equity analyst at JPMorgan Chase. Prior to that, he was a portfolio manager at BlackRock and an equity research analyst at JP Morgan.

🔹 Web3 and virtual reality game developer Thirdverse closed a $15 million funding round led by MZ Web3 Fund, which has brought the company's total funding to $33 million to date. Other organizations that have invested in Thirdverse include 8DAO, YGG and OKX. Thirdverse plans to release at least 10 Web3 games by 2023 and is currently recruiting more game developers to expand its development team.

🔹 Ethereum cross-chain bridge Across Protocol closed a $10 million funding round at a $200 million valuation, with participation from Hack VC and others. Proceeds from the investment will drive growth of the cross-chain bridge, further improve capital efficiency, and expand the permissionless relay network.

🔹 Web3 developer platform Buildspace closes $10M round led by a16z with participation from Y-Combinator. Buildspace aims to provide a Web3 learning platform for users and currently offers learning programs such as Solidity, Ether NFT, Solana Web3 App, and more.

🔹 Polkadot eco-interoperability protocol t3rn closes $6.5M in funding led by Polychain. t3rn is said to start offering cross-chain transactions across the Polkadot ecosystem and other ecosystems in 2020 and will launch on the main network soon, with the goal of going live as a Polkadot parallel chain in the first quarter of next year.

🔹 Decentralized financial marketplace infrastructure startup Revv announced that it has closed a $5.5 million round of funding in Q2 led by Libertus Capital. Revv founder Adi Dommaraju said he hopes to build the new DeFi product by combining TradFi and Web2 practices with a crypto-native experience.

🔹 NFT utility platform Tropee closes $5.1 million funding round led by Tioga Capital. Tropee reportedly aims to empower utility for NFT by helping brands enhance the user experience from their collections.

🔹 Cryptographic privacy startup Nucleo closed a $4 million seed round led by Bain Capital and others. The company seeks to create a private, multi-signature solution for organizations to transact on the ethereum blockchain through zero-knowledge cryptography. The funding round will be used to develop DeFi services for organizations, further increase integration with the on-chain network, and scale the team.

🔹 Decentralized identity project Carv closes $4M in funding led by Temasek's Vertex Ventures. Carv's main products include an engine that aggregates gamer data from Web2 and Web3 and centralizes this information under a unique user ID. On the enterprise side, Carv provides a white-label data service for game operators to query cross-platform data on new users. Carv currently has partnerships with over 90 games and over 300,000 registered users.

🔹Web3 gaming infrastructure service provider Insert Stonks closed a $2.5 million pre-seeded round led by FunFair Ventures. Insert Stonks provides personalized tools to help players and developers profit from games quickly and transparently and is currently launching two platform tools, "is_engine" for game developers and "is_games" for gamers, which are compatible with most games on the market and can be integrated quickly.

🔹 NFT infrastructure Vinci Protocol closes $2.1 million seed round led by TGE Capital and others. This round will be used to develop a suite of NFT data services and development tools, including NFTFi, NFT Predictor, NFT Governance, and other tools. vinci Protocol is available for native Web3 builders and applications.

🔹 NFT platform Hyakkit closed a $2 million seed round led by Step VC and others. Hyakki is dedicated to building marketing and utility infrastructure for Web3 and NFT, using AR and AI to provide marketing services and application scenarios for Web2 and Web3 brands so that NFT is not limited to JPEG images but can give brands more.

🔹 Gaming guild PEG and Web3 branded online marketing platform BrandNation have combined to close a $2 million seed round led by Sonla. BrandNation integrates with social networks such as Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and Twitter, and Yassi Pressman, who herself has 20 million followers on social media, says her style of playing and earning is the right marketing approach to attract large strategic clients.

🔹 Blockchain digital securities platform DEFYCA closes a $1.3 million seed round led by QBN Capital and Blizzard Fund. DEFYCA developed the blockchain protocol DEFYCA Protocol to help cryptocurrency investors invest in traditional debt securities through Tokenized assets. These Tokenized assets will be incorporated into a liquidity pool, and processes including price discovery, settlement, and payment will be executed through smart contracts, subsequently creating a link between DeFi and TradFi (traditional finance).

🔹 Web3 data solution Vezgo closes a $750,000 funding round with participation from Bitnomic Capital and others. Reportedly spun off from investment aggregation platform Wealthica and operating independently, Vezgo aims to provide Web2 finance and fintech companies with access to data including centralized trading platforms, wallets, NFTs, and other on-chain data via APIs.

🔹 Knobs, a blockchain IoT project, closed a new round of funding with participation from Smart Capital for an amount not yet disclosed to the public. Knobs was founded in 2014. It operates in three main areas: blockchain, IoT (integration of devices to make them smart) and traditional software platforms. In the blockchain area, Knobs has so far filed two patents and a blockchain software platform registered with the Italian Copyright Office SIAE.

📣 This week’s on-chain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Slow Fog: Numbers Protocol (NUM) Token Project under attack, users are asked to quickly deauthorize the cross-chain bridge. The numbers protocol (NUM) token project on the ETH chain is under attack. According to the Slow Fog security team, the Numbers Protocol (NUM) token project on the ETH chain has been attacked and the attackers have made approximately $13,836 in profit. The main reason for this attack is that NUM tokens do not have a permit function and have a callback function, so it is possible to pass in fake signatures to spoof the cross-chain bridge and cause users' assets to be transferred out unintentionally.

🔹 FTX hack update: According to Etherscan on-chain data, the address marked as "FTX Accounts Drainer" starting with 0x59a has transferred approximately $200 million worth of ETH to 12 different crypto wallets, which started around 00:00 on November 22 (UTC+8 ). Within six minutes, the wallets made 12 transactions, each sending 15,000 ETH to a different crypto wallet address, and the 12 new wallet addresses have yet to do anything with the funds. Larry Cermak, vice president of research at The Block, said the entity has not yet started selling off the Ether that has been transferred to the 12 wallets because there is little remaining liquidity to convert Ether for renBTC.

🔹 sDAO contract business logic is flawed, attackers made over 13,000 BUSD in profit.

🔹 VenomSoftX, a malicious extension for stealing cryptocurrency, was discovered in Google Chrome and can be used to steal users' cryptocurrency and sensitive data.