Gate.io 博客 2024 Bitcoin (BTC) ATH Forecast: Could Middle East Crisis Challenge Predictions?

2024 Bitcoin (BTC) ATH Forecast: Could Middle East Crisis Challenge Predictions?

01月01日 08:00

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## TL; DR

Bitcoin may surpass $69,000 before the next halving event earmarked for April 2024.

The BTC price may reach $250,000 after the 2024 <a href="/zh-tw/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> halving.
Smart investors may <a href="/zh-tw/how-to-buy/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">buy Bitcoin</a> now and hold it.

## Introduction

Cryptocurrencies have been popular since the 2012 halving event when the <a href="/zh-tw/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin price</a> surged by a large percentage. And there is no doubt that bitcoin, Ether (ETH), Binance coin, Ripple crypto and Tron are among the leading cryptocurrencies. As a result, many people follow the price performance of bitcoin (BTC), the number one cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Sadly, the values of cryptocurrencies are affected by various factors which include the global economic performance, their adoption rates and geo-politics like the current political instability in the Middle East. This article assesses the impact of the political crisis in the Middle East and the 2024 halving event on the BTC price.

## The Bitcoin Price under Strain despite the Approaching 2024 Halving Event

On Wednesday, 11 October 2023 the BTC price fell below $27,000, an occurrence that was accompanied by a 2% decline in the total crypto market capitalization.

This bitcoin price fall comes a few days after Chanpeng Zhao, Binance CEO’s prediction of a robust [bitcoin performance for the period up to the halving event](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/3286/bitcoin-halving-85-done-long-term-holders-supply-inches-toward-record-highs "bitcoin performance for the period up to the halving event"), expected in April 2024. The current political turmoil in the Middle East could have contributed to BTC poor price performance that resulted in its price falling below $27,000.

Specifically, Zhao, popularly referred to as CZ, said that the price of bitcoin will reach $61,000 in 2024. Despite [that bullish bitcoin price forecast](https://www.gate.io/th/blog_detail/1888 "that bullish bitcoin price forecast") its current price action is contrary to the expected performance level.

In a notable development, Binance crypto exchange added the Bitcoin halving countdown feature on its homepage to enable its users to track how close we are to this historical crypto event. When making the announcement of the Bitcoin Halving Countdown, Zhao predicted that Bitcoin will reach a new high after the 2024 halving.

His bitcoin in 2024 price forecast hinges on the fact that BTC reached ATHs after the past three halving events. The past bitcoin halving dates were 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016 and 11 May 2020. In the meantime, the [next bitcoin halving](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/1067/bitcoin-halving-what-it-is. "next bitcoin halving") is likely to occur on 24 April 2024.

Read also: [Is the Bullish Market Coming With the Approaching of BTC Halving?](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/3293/%E5%87%8F%E5%8D%8A%E5%80%92%E8%AE%A1%E6%97%B6-%E7%89%9B%E5%B8%82%E8%A6%81%E6%9D%A5%E4%BA%86%E5%90%97 "Is the Bullish Market Coming With the Approaching of BTC Halving?")

## Bitcoin Short-term Bearish Outlook

Although CZ has given a bullish bitcoin sentiment the events on ground paints a strong bearish BTC outlook. For example, the developments in the derivative market indicates a gloomy short-term situation for the number one cryptocurrency.

In particular, data on Coinglass shows that the bull traders hit a total loss of $25 million on 11 October. This extended their losses to six straight days. The following liquidation heat map summarizes what transpired.

![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1698337487ATH 1.png)
Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap for October 11: Coinglass

As seen in the chart above, bitcoin dominates the market losses. Long positions worth over $25 million were liquidated on 11 October alone. This resulted in a 2% decline in the total crypto market capitalization. Notably, this was caused mainly by bitcoin traders who opted to exit the market rather than defend their positions. If such a scenario persists the bitcoin price may slip below $25,000.

## Bears Control the Bitcoin Market

During October bitcoin started on a positive note with multiple attempts to break the $28,000 resistance level. At the same time, bitcoin dominance hit a four month high of 51%, showing the great interest that crypto enthusiasts have in the coin.

Nonetheless, the data from the derivatives market indicates that the bears are in control. As an example, between 7 and 11 October bitcoin long-term holders suffered more losses than the short traders.

Specifically, long positions worth more than $55 million were liquidated. So far, the bears have had a strong upper hand over the bulls since the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis between the Palestinians and the Israelis. However, the market hopes that the highly-leveraged long traders will protect their positions against the bears which may avert any further bitcoin drop in coming days.

## BTC Faces Potential for Deeper Loses if Price Falls Below $25,000

The bitcoin price outlook was not good during the second week of October when it looked as if it would fall below $25,000.

Nevertheless, the in/Out of the Money, a metric that indicates entry price distribution of bitcoin holders, has been assuring the market that better days are ahead. It indicates that there is a major cluster of bitcoin holders who purchased it when its price was around $26,000 as the next image shows.

![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1698337595ATH 2.png)
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: IntoTheBlock

As the picture shows there were over 1.95 million wallet addresses that acquired more than 811,310 BTC at a maximum price of $26,695. If these wallets hold their bitcoin its price is unlikely to fall below $26,000. This would avert further losses. Nonetheless, if the bears break the $26,695 support level we may see the bitcoin price falling below $25,000.

However, not all hope is lost as better days may come sooner than later. For instance, if the bitcoin bulls regain control of the market its price may rise towards $30,000. This is because we have 2.5 million wallet addresses that purchased 1.06 million BTC at an average price of $28,300.

If the market breaks the $28,300 resistance level the BTC price may head towards $30,000 and the current bitcoin crisis may come to an end. That is a reason why some analysts expect smart traders to buy BTC at the current price.

## Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction

According to the popular social media commentator, BitQuant, bitcoin is likely to reach a new all-time-high of around $250,000 in 2024. However, before that price target bitcoin may attain a new ATH before April 2024.

In an X post, BitQuant predicts that bitcoin has a target price of $69,000 before the next halving. He/she said, “No, Bitcoin is not going to stop before the halving,” he/she wrote in part of the commentary. Yes, it’s going to reach a new all-time high before halving.”

However, BitQuant admits that the bitcoin price may reach $250 K after the halving event. He wrote, “This means it will peak after the halving, in 2024. And yes, the target price is around $250K.”

Considering that currently, Bitcoin is trading between $25,000 and $30,000, it makes sense for savvy investors to [buy bitcoin now](https://www.gate.io/buy_crypto "buy bitcoin now") and hold it until 2025, a year after the halving event.

Read also: [Bitcoin Halving Preview In 2024](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/2330/bitcoin-halving-preview-in-2024 "Bitcoin Halving Preview In 2024")

## Conclusion

There is no doubt that bitcoin has a very promising future despite current challenges inhibiting its potential growth. Analysts [predict that the Bitcoin price may rise by more than 700% between now and 2026](https://www.gate.io/price-prediction/bitcoin-btc "predict that the Bitcoin price may rise by more than 700% between now and 2026"). The 2024 halving event is the greatest catalyst for bitcoin in the next two years. Of course, the market also awaits the approval of several bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) in 2024 as well.

## FAQs about Bitcoin

### How much will bitcoin be worth in 2024?

Realistically, the bitcoin price is likely to fluctuate between $54,625.24 and $60,315.37. However, some analysts believe that BTC will trade around $250,000 by the end of 2024. The [bitcoin halving event](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/1800/bitcoin-halving-in-2024-will-btc-have-another-bullrun "bitcoin halving event") is likely to push the price of bitcoin to new levels.

### What will BTC peak at in 2025?

Bitcoin may attain a maximum value of $83,075.89 in 2025. It is likely to have a minimum value of around $72,833.66 and an average price of about $78,068.58. The bitcoin halving, expected to occur in April 2024, is one of the catalysts which can influence its upward price movement.

### How high will bitcoin go in 2040?

The value of bitcoin is likely to range between 542,838.40 and $569,240.60 in 2040. Its average price will be around $557,632.74. However, the price performance of bitcoin will depend on its rate of adoption between now and 2040.

### How much will bitcoin be in 2026?

In 2026 the bitcoin price is likely to fluctuate between $94,456.15 and $104,698.39, with an average value of approximately $100,601.49. Its exact price range will depend on various factors including rate of inflation and interest rate.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:** Mashell C.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

TL；DR

Introduction

The Bitcoin Price under Strain despite the Approaching 2024 Halving Event

Bitcoin Short-term Bearish Outlook

Bears Control the Bitcoin Market

BTC Faces Potential for Deeper Loses if Price Falls Below $25,000

Bitcoin Halving 2024 Prediction

Conclusion

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2024 Bitcoin (BTC) ATH Forecast: Could Middle East Crisis Challenge Predictions?

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