Daily News | BTC Has A 20% Chance of Exceeding $70K by the End of April; Daily Active Users of the World APP Exceeded 1 Million; Over $400M Worth of AVAX and Other Tokens Will Be Unlocked

2024-02-19, 06:54

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## Crypto Daily Digest: Honduras prohibits crypto trading, AVAX, ID and DYDX tokens will be unlocked in large amounts this week
According to Reuters, the National Bank and Securities Commission of Honduras has announced in a resolution that it has banned the country's financial system from trading cryptocurrencies and similar virtual assets on the grounds of fraud and money laundering risks, with the resolution taking immediate effect. The resolution is scheduled for next Monday but will be announced this Friday. The resolution prohibits institutions under its supervision from "maintaining, investing, mediating, or trading cryptocurrencies, crypto assets, virtual currencies, tokens, or any similar virtual assets not issued or authorized by the central bank."

Currently, there is no regulation of crypto assets under Honduran law although platforms for trading crypto assets do operate in the country. Regulatory authorities point out that due to many of these platforms being registered in multiple jurisdictions, Honduran law cannot control them and they may "participate in fraud, money laundering, and terrorist financing activities." The Central Bank of Honduras has warned that it is not responsible for such transactions and cannot guarantee any such transactions.

Earlier in January, it was reported that the Prospera Special Economic Zone in Honduras recognized <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> as the unit of account. It is currently unclear what impact the new policy will have on this special economic zone.

Pixels announced that it will airdrop a total of 20 million PIXEL tokens to RON stakers, to be distributed in two stages: the first batch of 10 million tokens has begun, and the second batch will be distributed within a month. The snapshot date is set for February 8th at 10:00. According to the number of RONs staked by users, they are divided into four levels, and the total amount of PIXEL rewards obtained for each level is as follows: 1 RON: 183.34 PIXEL obtained; 55 RON: Obtained 675.75 PIXEL; 684.64 RON: Obtained 2315.77 PIXEL; 8317.4 RON: Obtained 3955.11 PIXEL.

The above amount represents the total amount that can be claimed for each level, and users can claim half of it today. To receive the second part of the reward, users need to maintain the corresponding level of eligibility. Please note that the validity period for two claims is 3 months from the date of first eligibility. The PIXEL reward will be sent to the user's game email, and the claim process may take up to 1 hour.

According to DeBank data, the current total asset value of the Layer 2 Network Blast contract address launched by Blur founder Pacman has exceeded $1.8 billion, reaching $1,801,943,043. Approximately $1.64 billion worth of ETH was deposited into the Lido protocol, $158,785,614 worth of assets were deposited into the Maker protocol, and $7,798,249 worth of assets were held in the wallet.

According to Ark Invest Daily data, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest sold 499,149 COIN (Coinbase Global Inc) shares on February 16. Among them, ARKK Fund sold 397,924 shares; ARKW Fund sold 45,433 shares; and ARKF Fund sold 55,792 shares. Calculated at a closing price of approximately $180 per share on that day, the total value is approximately $90 million.

Worldcoin's official post stated that the daily active users of the World App exceeded 1 million this week. At the end of last year, it was reported that the number of WorldAPP users exceeded 5 million, with over 2.7 million people owning World IDs.

According to Coinglass data, the current open position in Bitcoin futures contracts across the network is 458,600 BTCs (approximately $23.72 billion). The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has a record high of 130,710 BTCs (approximately $6.75 billion) in open Bitcoin futures contracts, ranking first; The open position of Binance Bitcoin contract is 112,950 BTCs (approximately $5.84 billion), ranking second.

According to data from Lyra, the DeFi option protocol, crypto traders believe that the probability of Bitcoin breaking through $70,000 by the end of April is 20%. Lyra recently launched options that expire on April 26th, allowing traders to speculate on price trends before and after the halving of Bitcoin rewards. Bitcoin has risen 35% in the past three weeks, reaching $52,000, the highest level since the end of 2021, demonstrating strong upward momentum.

According to Token Unlocks data, tokens such as AVAX, ID, and DYDX will experience a one-time large unlock this week, with a total release value of over $400 million. Among them:

At 0:00 (UTC) on February 22, AVAX (<a href="/price/avalanche-avax" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Avalanche</a>) will unlock 9.54 million tokens worth approximately $383 million, accounting for 2.6% of the circulating supply;

At 0:00 (UTC) on February 22, SPACE ID will unlock 18.49 million GAL tokens worth approximately $10.73 million, accounting for 4.29% of the circulating supply;

At 15:00 (UTC) on February 20, DYDX (<a href="/price/dydx-dydx" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">dYdX</a>) will unlock 575,000 tokens worth approximately $1.78 million, accounting for 0.19% of the circulating supply; A total of 2.16 million tokens were unlocked this week, valued at $682, accounting for 0.72% of the circulating supply.

In addition, ACA (Acala) and <a href="/price/1inch-1inch" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">1inch</a> (1INCH) will also receive token unlocking worth hundreds of thousands of dollars this week. STRK (Starknet) will receive token release/distribution at 8:00 am on February 20.

## Macro: PPI exceeds expectations, with a 90% probability of not lowering interest rates in March
The market theme over the past week has remained the weakening of expectations for interest rate cuts. After data showed that US inflation did not cool as quickly as investors had hoped, traders were forced to continue cutting their bets on the Federal Reserve's quick rate cut, with the first-rate cut expected to be postponed until June. The interest rate swap shows that the current market pricing for the Federal Reserve's 2024 rate cut is less than 90 basis points, close to the median of 75 basis points predicted by policymakers, compared to the expectation of 150 basis points in early February.

Investors will further understand the views of policy investors on the path of interest rate cuts from the minutes of this Thursday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. On the same day, the European Central Bank will also release the minutes of its interest rate meeting. In addition, this week, there will be a dense release of PMI data from various countries.

Last Friday, all PPI indicators exceeded expectations, with the US PPI rising 0.9% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in January, both exceeding expectations. The possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in May and June has decreased in the pricing of swap contracts. This means that the PCE data in two weeks is also likely to rebound, thereby enhancing the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates soon, as policymakers have been concerned that premature rate cuts may trigger a rebound in inflation.

Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets pointed out that PPI is an "unsettling data" that reinforces the tone set by core CPI. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers stated that the apparent sustained inflationary pressure in the latest data suggests that the Federal Reserve's next policy move is more likely to be a rate hike rather than a rate cut.

Since the last meeting, most Federal Reserve officials have expressed patience with interest rate changes and warned against premature rate cuts given the strong momentum of the US economy. If the meeting minutes echo a similar tone with more policymakers, the US dollar may gain more upward momentum. As expectations of interest rate cuts fade, the US dollar index has risen by 3% so far this year.

Due to the weakening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut prospects due to PPI inflation data, the US dollar index hit an intraday high during trading, but quickly recouped all gains before finally closing close at 104.275. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield briefly reached the 4.3% mark and then fell, ultimately closing at 4.281%; The yield of the interest rate sensitive 2-year US Treasury bond briefly rose by over 10 basis points, reaching a high point for the year. The gains in the end of the day were slightly higher, ultimately closing at 4.644%.

Spot gold plummeted nearly $10 in the short term after the release of January PPI data in the United States, then rebounded and ultimately closed up 0.44% at $2013.23 per ounce, but still recorded two consecutive negative weekly readings; Spot silver rose strongly after stabilizing at the 23 mark, ultimately closing up 2.14% at $23.42 per ounce.

In addition, the escalating tensions in the Middle East have masked the weakening hope for interest rate cuts and the bleak demand outlook for this year, with international crude oil rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching a new high in nearly three weeks. WTI crude oil rose 0.81% to $78.16 per barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.58% to $83.22 per barrel. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37%, the Nasdaq fell 0.82%, and the S&P 500 index fell 0.49%.

Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have expressed their views, among which Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic stated that he is inclined to start cutting interest rates in the summer and still expects two rate cuts in 2024; Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin believes that the CPI data confirms the reason why the Federal Reserve needs more confidence in interest rate cuts.

In addition, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley stated that three rate cuts are a reasonable benchmark for this year, and former “hawkish supporter” Brad from the Fed also believes that March rate cuts are wise.

According to CME's Federal Reserve Watch, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the 5.25% - 5.50% range in March is 90%, and the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is 10%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by May is 61.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 35.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 3.2%.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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