Daily News | The US Presidential Election is About to Start, and BTC and Crypto Markets May Face Severe Fluctuations

2024-11-04, 04:27

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## Crypto Daily Digest: With the upcoming US election, BTC volatility may significantly intensify
According to Farside Investor data, US <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $54.9 million last Friday, with $25.6 million from Fidelity FBTC and $24.1 million from Ark ARKB.

Last Friday, the US <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> spot ETFs had an outflow of $10.9 million, of which $11.4 million was from Grayscale ETFs, and there was almost no inflow or outflow from other ETH ETFs.

**The total market cap of stablecoins increased by 0.38% in the past week, approaching the highest level since May 2022**

According to DefiLlama data, the total market cap of stablecoins increased by 0.38% in the past week, and is now reported at $173.117 billion, close to the highest level since May 2022. The total market cap of USDT increased by 0.3%, now reporting $120.441 billion, with a market share of 69.62%.

**A trader bought Pnut for $17 three days ago and currently earns over 12,000 times**

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a trader spent 0.0983 SOLs (approximately $17) three days ago to buy about 2.46 million Pnut.

The trader started selling Pnut a day ago and has sold 2.23 million Pnuts in exchange for 1,162 SOLs (approximately $196,000). He still holds 226,000 Pnuts (worth $18,000) and has set them for automatic sale, with a total profit of over 12,000 times.

**Viewpoint: BTC volatility is expected to be positive or negative 9 percentage points on election night, but the market still tends to be bullish**

According to an analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the forward volatility of BTC and ETH surged overnight. <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a>'s volatility is currently at 80.30%, up from 72.20% previously, and <a  rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer"  href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a>'s volatility is currently at 82.92%, up from 75.40% previously.

Nick Forster said that this upgrade reflects trader’s preparation for the election results, which could greatly affect market prices. There is a two-thirds chance that election night will lead to significant price fluctuations, with BTC fluctuating between -8.97% and+9.85% and ETH fluctuating slightly between -9.25% and+10.19%.

Nick Forster added that the total number of open contracts for BTC's call options is 1179, while the total number of open contracts for put options is 885, which clearly indicates that despite potential volatility, the market still tends to be bullish.

## Market Trends: GOAT oversold and rebounded, GRASS rose nearly 200% in a week
### Market Hotspots
The Trump concept memes MAGA, STRUMP, and other tokens have surged, and the US presidential election is about to be announced. Market hot money has hyped up related concept tokens in advance. The market cap of these memes is generally small. If Trump is elected, they may experience a significant increase, otherwise they may return to zero;

AI meme leader GOAT oversold and rebounded, failing to break through the $1 billion mark and falling back to a market cap of around $500 million. Although the concept is relatively novel, GOAT still needs more mainstream trading platforms to go online for prices to have breakthroughs;

The Depin concept token GRASS surged, with a nearly 200% increase since its launch one week ago. Currently, its circulating market cap is $420 million, and its total circulating market cap is $1.7 billion. The Depin concept has been hotly debated in the past six months, but the actual performance of related popular tokens such as IO has not been satisfactory, and the market is not buying into this concept. The rise of GRASS may only be a means to increase liquidity in the early stages of token opening.

### Mainstream Coins
BTC fell below $68,000 at one point, and after approaching a historical high last week, it continued to decline for five consecutive days. Market funds remained cautious before the announcement of the US presidential election;

ETH has also declined for five consecutive days, returning to below $2,500 and consolidating again. We are still waiting for the positive inflow of ETH ETF funds before ETH can have a good performance;

Altcoins are generally declining, and the community believes it is better to buy them when BTC breaks through its historical high and sideways trend.

## Macro news: US stock market retraces after reaching new highs, market volatility may be more intense this week
Last week, the Dow Jones Index fell 0.15% in a week, the Nasdaq Index fell 1.50% in a week, and the S&P 500 Index fell 1.37% in a week. Last Friday, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 4.37%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, was 4.21%.

The overall job market in the United States is still cooling down, and a 25 basis point interest rate cut at this week's meeting is still highly probable. In terms of the US election, the gap in polls between the two sides has narrowed, but the final result still has significant uncertainty. On another trading day, American voters will elect their next president, which may determine the direction of the US economy for the next four years.

Most traders believe there will be volatility this week, which may be significant, as controversial results could delay the voting results for weeks or even months. This explains why the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has climbed above 20 in the past four trading days, a level that typically indicates an increase in stock market pressure. That's also why investors are not so eager to pick winners and losers based on who they believe will become the next president of the United States.

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<div>Author:**Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
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