Deutsche Bank: Retail Investors Predict Bitcoin to fall under $20 K by end of 2024

2024-02-08, 04:52

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## TL; DR
Pessimistic <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> analysts predict that the <a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin price</a> will drop below $20,000.

Optimistic crypto analysts forecast the price of bitcoin to fluctuate around $100,000 by the end of the year.

The recently launched spot bitcoin ETFs and the 2024 BTC halving should push the bitcoin price up.

## Introduction 
Bitcoin has witnessed varying price volatility over the past five years.  As an instance, in 2021 bitcoin performed remarkably and attained its all-time high of $69,000. In contrast, its price dipped during 2022 as a result of the longest crypto winter ever.

For the greater half of 2023 the bitcoin price remained relatively low. Its value started picking up from July onwards. By the end of the year its price was fluctuating around $40,000.

The bullish momentum continued in January 2024 until BTC reached a yearly high of $49,000 on the 11th as a result [of the launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs](https://www.gate.io/learn/articles/what-is-a-bitcoin-etf-and-why-does-everyone-from-blackrock-to-grayscale-want-one/1702 "of the launch of the spot bitcoin ETFs"). Unfortunately, the bitcoin price dropped again towards the end of the month until it traded at around $39,000.

However, it has recovered slightly as it is trading at about $42,992 at the time of writing. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the potential bitcoin price trajectory for 2024. We will use Deutsche’s survey findings to [predict BTC’s price forecast for the year](https://www.gate.io/price-prediction/bitcoin-btc "predict BTC’s price forecast for the year").

## With Less than a Month after the Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch the Price of BTC May Slid Further

A recent survey Deutsche Bank conducted has concluded that the bitcoin price may drop below $20,000 by the end of 2024. Around 15% of the 2,000 people who participated in the research, carried out between 15 and 19 January, predicted the price of bitcoin to fluctuate between $40,000 and $75,000 by the end of the year.

Noticeably, over one third of the participants, who resided in the U.S., U.K., and the Eurozone at the time of the survey, forecast the BTC price drop to reach $20,000 by January 2025. In a surprising finding, about 42% of research participants believe that bitcoin will one day disappear.

In contrast, 39% of the surveyed population think that bitcoin will continue to exist for many years to come. Apart from these research findings, Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace, Deutsche Bank analysts, said [that the United States SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs will help increase the adoption of BTC by institutions](https://www.gate.io/learn/articles/what-is-a-bitcoin-etf-and-why-does-everyone-from-blackrock-to-grayscale-want-one/1702 "that the United States SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs will help increase the adoption of BTC by institutions"). The following graph shows a summary of the price findings.

![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1707367925Deutse.png)
Deutsche Bank Survey’s Bitcoin Price Prediction - [Deutsche Bank](https://static.news.bitcoin.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/deutsche-bank-survey-bitcoin.jpg "Deutsche Bank")

As you note, the majority of the survey participants have predicted bitcoin to drop below $20,000 by the end of the year.

More significantly, the findings may discourage many investors from buying bitcoin during the course of the year. On the contrary, some individuals may opt to sell bitcoin when its price is still high. However, whether or not [investors buy bitcoin during 2024](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/264/how-to-buy-bitcoin-on-gate.io-buy-btc "investors buy bitcoin during 2024") depends on their investment orientation and the prevailing BTC market price.

In addition to the research findings there are other analysts who think that the bitcoin price will fall to around $20,000 by the end of the year. As an example, Chris Burniske, a former crypto lead at Cathie Wood's Ark Invest, recently said that crypto investors [may buy bitcoin](https://www.gate.io/how-to-buy/bitcoin-btc "may buy bitcoin") at a price of between $30,000 and $36,000, by the end of the year.

However, [he added](https://twitter.com/cburniske/status/1750623508307284171 "he added") that he “wouldn't be surprised if we test the mid-to-high 20s before all is said and done, and we can make an actual move towards previous ATHs. The path to get there will be volatile-- expect fakeouts, and will take months to play out.”

## Poor Sentiment to Crypto Linked to FTX Fall, UST Collapse and U.S Regulatory Pressure

The sentiment reflected in the Deutsche Bank Survey report might have emanated from past crypto events and developments like the collapse of FTX exchange, the [implosion of TerraUSD](https://www.gate.io/es/blog_detail/2026 "implosion of TerraUSD") and the existing crypto regulatory environment in the United States. For example, during the beginning of 2023 several United States regulatory authorities filed lawsuits [against crypto exchanges like Binance and Coinbase](https://www.gate.io/learn/articles/the-wild-west-of-the-crypto-world/670 "against crypto exchanges like Binance and Coinbase").

Also, the deep-seated effects of the crypto winter that started in 2022 and persisted into 2023 has influenced the respondents’ sentiment towards bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In fact, some of the participants still believe that the crypto winter is still on-going and will not end soon.

Read also: [A Comprehensive Analysis of Key Information on BTC Spot ETFs](https://www.gate.io/learn/articles/a-comprehensive-analysis-of-key-information-on-btc-spot-etfs/1576 "A Comprehensive Analysis of Key Information on BTC Spot ETFs")

Nonetheless, the report has highlighted that some survey participants have little understanding of cryptocurrency. In fact, the publication stated that about two thirds of the participants had little knowledge about cryptocurrencies. This could have influenced their perception of crypto assets.

## Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2024

We have already discussed some bitcoin price predictions based on the Deutsche Bank Survey findings and Chris Burniske. Despite the forecast of bitcoin price dropping in 2024 other analysts predict that it will rise sharply due to the on-coming 2024 bitcoin halving event and the likely increase in institutional adoption following the [spot BTC ETF approvals in the United States](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/3434/bitcoin-etf-approval-potential-catalyst-for-historic-crypto-bull-run "spot BTC ETF approvals in the United States").

Several analysts, including Global bank Standard Chartered say that the price of bitcoin may reach $100,000 by the end of the year. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of FX research has given two key reasons for the prediction.

First, Kendrick cited the SEC’s approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as the major driver of the bitcoin price rise this year. This is because  some large financial institutions can put their funds in bitcoin investments which increases the demand for BTC.

As per [the CoinDesk publication, Kendrick said](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/28/bitcoin-remains-on-track-for-100k-by-year-end-2024-standard-chartered/ "the CoinDesk publication, Kendrick said"), “Things are going as expected, according to Standard Chartered Bank, reiterating its April forecast that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.”

Again, Kendrick said that the on-coming bitcoin halving will push the price of BTC towards $100,000. As the norm, before and after bitcoin halving many people invest in bitcoin which increases its demand and ultimately its value.

The Daily Mail quoted [Kendrick as saying](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-12823947/bitcoin-crash-rally-analysts-experts-100k-20k.html "Kendrick as saying"), “We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs. This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before end-2024.”

Related news: [What does Bitcoin ETF introduction mean for Investors](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/3728/what-does-bitcoin-etf-introduction-mean-for-investors "What does Bitcoin ETF introduction mean for Investors")

## Conclusion

A report by Deutsche Bank has concluded that the price of bitcoin may fall to below $20,000 by January 2025. Nonetheless, some optimistic analysts like Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of FX research, forecast that the BTC price may reach $100,000 by the end of the year. Both the SEC’s recent approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and the on-coming halving may drive the value of bitcoin up.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:** Mashell C.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
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