Daily News | BoJ in Limbo, China's Numbers Dip, Crypto Market Bull Run or Bull Trap?

2023-01-16, 01:57

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## TL; DR

🥂 Good morning, today is **Monday, Jan. 16, 2023.** Hope you guys had a good weekend! ****It’s going to be yet another great day. Let’s get after it relentlessly.

**Macro:** This week, the BoJ may take more action despite 43 economists predicting no change in policy. Meanwhile, China to release retail sales, investment, and industrial output numbers for December, but downbeat figures expected due to Covid-19. In the US, consumer demand will be the main focus as inflation took a breather, but retail sales may slump due to decrease in vehicle sales and gasoline receipts. In Europe, UK data will be taking center stage as the BoE monitors jobs and wage numbers to gauge impact of price gains on labor market.

**Crypto:** Saturday was the best-performing day for cryptocurrencies in 2023, buyers entered the market early Saturday morning, purchasing ~$4 billion worth of [Bitcoin futures](https://www.gate.io/futures_trade/USDT/BTC_USDT). Notably, crypto market cap rose to $965B over the weekend, possibly breaking $1T benchmark; the price surge follows a cooldown in inflation indicated by US Department of Labor. Meanwhile, the top 3 performers among top 20 coins are TRX and SHIB, while most other coins scaled back gains on Sunday.

****Topic of the Day:**** Mailchimp suffers another crypto security breach: Solana Foundation affected

**Notable Headlines:** Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, is considering purchasing up to $1 billion of assets from Digital Currency Group; MetaMask now supports liquid staking through Lido and Rocket Pool, allowing users to stake their ETH and receive liquid staking tokens; [Bitcoin](https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT)'s mining difficulty has increased by 10.26% due to the return of hashrate online and the deployment of newer, more efficient mining machines…

## Macro at a Glance: Global Monetary Tug-of-War, Central Banks Navigating Uncertainty

**Asia**

With the Japanese yen rising 3.5% in two consecutive sessions, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is back in the spotlight this week after it shocked global financial markets in December with a change to its stimulus program. Despite 43 economists predicting that the central bank will leave policy unchanged, many experts say that more action cannot be ruled out. The BOJ's messaging has become less clear following its move to double the cap on 10-year bond yields. As Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April, speculation is building that the central bank will move towards normalizing policy.

Furthermore, China is set to release retail sales, investment and industrial output numbers for December on Tuesday, with downbeat figures expected due to the spread of Covid-19. Meanwhile, Down Under, jobs figures will indicate how the economy is faring as the Reserve Bank of Australia considers whether to continue or pause its tightening cycle.

**America**

As we gear up for the new week, all eyes will be on consumer demand as the latest data shows inflation taking a bit of a breather in the US. But don't get too comfortable just yet, as reports indicate that retail sales may be headed for a bit of a slump with a second consecutive month of decline, likely due to a slowdown in vehicle sales and a drop in gasoline receipts. Meanwhile, economists are predicting a continued decrease in prices paid to producers in December.

Up north, the Bank of Canada is keeping a close watch on inflation and wage expectations as they weigh their next move on January 25th. And with Consumer Price Index data set to be released on Tuesday, we may just get a glimpse into whether or not another rate hike is on the horizon.

**Europe**

All eyes will be on the UK as data takes center stage in European markets this week. The Bank of England will be closely monitoring jobs and wage numbers to gauge the impact of price gains on the labor market, while inflation data on Wednesday may indicate that the worst has passed as it slows closer to 10%. Additionally, the BOE will release its survey of credit conditions on Thursday and the week will end with retail sales figures for December, which are expected to show a rebound from the previous month at a time when spending is typically at its highest. This may support recent data suggesting that the UK may have avoided falling into a recession.

In the Eurozone, investors are anticipating the European Central Bank's minutes from the December rate decision on Thursday and speeches from policymakers including President Christine Lagarde. Also, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, more than 2,700 members of the global elite are gathering for discussions and speeches from leaders, including Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan.

In Turkey, policymakers will probably hold rates steady for a second month, but with general elections approaching, more cuts could be on the cards despite inflation remaining above 60%. Angola's central bank may add to the one rate cut it delivered last year after inflation slowed in almost every month of 2022.

💡 **Today's Markets at Jan. 13 22:00 UTC**

**BTC** -0.27% at $20,896; **Ether** +0.37% at $1,555

**Asia: Australia** +0.67%**; Japan** -1.25%; **Hong Kong** +1.04%; **China** +1.01%; **India** +0.55%.

**Europe:** **London** +0.67%; **Paris** +0.69%; **Frankfurt** +0.19%.

**US Spot Indices:** **Dow** +0.33%; **S&P** +0.40%; **Nasdaq** +0.71%.

**US Index Futures: Dow** +0.28%; **S&P** +0.37%; **Nasdaq** +0.64%.

**US Two-year Treasury** up 9bps at 4.238%.

**US Ten-year Treasury** up 6bps at 3.507%.

**UK Ten-year Gilt Bond** up 3bp at 3.373%.

**[US Dollar](https://www.gate.io/trade/USD_USDT) Index** -0.07% at 101.80.

**FX in 24hrs:** GBP: +0.17%; EUR: -0.19%; JPY: +1.09%; CNY: +0.53%.

**Gold** +1.14% at 1,920; **Light** **Crude** +1.88% at 79.86.

🧠 **Catalysts this week**

**Monday:** Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence

**Tuesday:** China GDP, China Industrial Production, UK Unemployment, Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment, Canada Inflation Rate

**Wednesday:** Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision, UK Inflation Rate, US PPI, US Retail Sales, Japan Balance of Trade

**Thursday:** US Building Permits, Japan Inflation Rate

**Friday:** UK Gfk Consumer Confidence, UK Retail Sales

## Crypto Daily Digest: Crypto Market Cap Shatters Records, Breaching $1 Trillion Benchmark

Over the weekend, the total crypto market cap rose to a height of $965B, per tradingview data, though other data sources suggested the market has already broken the $1T benchmark. Saturday, in particular, was the best-performing day cryptocurrencies have seen so far in 2023.

As noted by Crypto Quant’s Ki Young Jun, buyers entered the market early Saturday morning, purchasing ~$4 billion worth of [Bitcoin futures](https://www.gate.io/futures_trade/USDT/BTC_USDT). Cryptocurrencies have been trading higher since new data released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor indicated a cooldown in inflation.

On early Monday, among the top 20 coins, [Bitcoin](https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT) (BTC) saw a small decline of 0.32% to reach $20,855 though it has risen 10.6% since Friday's opening. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) saw a small increase of 0.37% to $1,555, but like BTC, ETH also rose 9.4% since Friday’s opening. The total crypto market cap is $938.49B, representing an 8.72% increase since Friday, per tradingview data.

In related news, Ethereum has launched a new developer network ahead of the Shanghai upgrade, and developers are preparing for a shadow fork on the mainnet.

Since Sunday had been quite sluggish, perhaps due in part to buyer exhaustion and some traders sitting on the sideline to observe the sustainability of the abrupt buying interests in the crypto market, the top three winners among the top 20 coins, as of Monday morning, were Tron (TRX), which maintained an 1.18% increase since rising over 8.1% since Friday, and Shiba Inu (SHIB), which saw another stellar increase of 4.06% to 0.00001081 after rising over 9.8% since Friday.

Most other coins among the top 20 have scaled back some of those gains, the top three being Ripple (XRP) which fell by 2.47% to 0.386 after seeing 5.5% gains since Friday, Dogecoin (DOGE) which fell by 2.12% to 0.0855 after rising over 8.8% during the same period, and Solana (SOL) which fell by 4.25% to 23.21 but has accumulated gains of up to 151% since Dec. 29th when it was trading at around 9.64.

In related news, the Solana Foundation, the non-profit organization behind the Solana Network, announced on Jan. 14 a security incident involving their email service provider Mailchimp to which an unauthorized actor accessed and exported certain user data, including names and Telegram usernames.

On Friday, the Nasdaq index once again led the gains among the top three indices in the US with a 0.71% rise. Per Into The Block data, the current correlation coefficient between BTC and Nasdaq stands at 0.79, which had been steadily rising from 0 since Dec. 16. The current correlation with Ether, which serves as the foundation to many blockchains, also stands at 0.77.

Among crypto-related stocks, Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) rose 5.11% on Friday alone and has risen over 42% within a week. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) shares also rose 3.24% and achieved similar gains of 42% after rising for 6 consecutive sessions.

Grayscale's GBTC fund also continued its positive start to the year. Shares in the fund are now over $11 — up over 35% since Dec. 29 — as the discount to net asset value (NAV) continues to narrow.

Meanwhile, the most notable gains among mining stocks include BIT Mining (NASDAQ:BTCM) which saw a 42% gain on a single day, totaling over 94% since the start of the year, Argo Blockchain (LSE:ARB) which saw a 19% gain and has risen over 96% during the same period, and Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT) which saw a 10.5% gain and has accumulated over 85% gains since Jan. 03.

🌐 **Top 20 Coins Performance**

**BTC** -0.32% at 20,885; **ETH** +0.37% at 1,555.

**BNB** -1.14% at 301; **XRP** -2.47% at 0.386; **DOGE** -2.12% at 0.0855.

**ADA** +0.67% at 0.350; **MATIC** -1.25% at 0.986; **DOT** -1.77% at 5.92.

**TRX** +1.18% at 0.0625; **SHIB** +4.06% at 0.00001081 **LTC** +0.05% at 87.85.

**SOL** -4.25% at 23.21; **UNI** -0.45% at 6.59; **AVAX** -0.48% at 16.86.

**ATOM** -0.86% at 12.78; **GT** -2.69% at 3.78.

## Topic of the Day: Mailchimp suffers another crypto security breach: Solana Foundation affected

The Solana Foundation, the non-profit organization behind the highly-acclaimed Solana Network, recently suffered a security breach that has left many of its users feeling vulnerable. According to an email sent to users, the foundation was informed by its email service provider, Mailchimp, that an unauthorized actor had accessed and exported certain user data. This data included names and Telegram usernames, leaving some users feeling exposed.

This isn't the first time that crypto companies have experienced security issues with Mailchimp. In August 2022, the platform temporarily suspended its services to crypto content creators and platforms associated with crypto news or related services due to a recent attack targeting its crypto-related users. It seems that malicious actors are becoming increasingly sophisticated in their tactics, deploying phishing and social engineering schemes to target data and information from crypto-related companies.

It's a reminder for all crypto enthusiasts to be extra vigilant when it comes to the security of their personal information. In an age where data is currency, it's crucial for crypto companies to take proactive measures to protect their users' data. The Solana Foundation's incident serves as a cautionary tale for all of us to be vigilant in protecting our personal information in the crypto space.

### 🌐 Solana **(SOL) $**22.721 **(-0.86%) - Bullish Outlook 🐂**

**SOL Overview:**

- ***Closest daily support zone: 20.83 - 20.01***
- ***Closest daily resistance zone: 22.74 - 25.03***
- ***Key Level: 20.90 (Monthly High of Mar. 2021)***
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1673834205Untitled0116.png)

Since having reached its Dec. 29 closing price of 9.63 (the lowest since Feb. 2021), SOL has since regained a whopping 137% of losses, although it is still trading at a 38% discount since being tied to the FTX fiasco back in early November. On Saturday, the 32% surge was enough to push the price of SOL above an extended trendline measured between the close of Apr. 03, and Nov. 05, although SOL bulls took some profits on Sunday which hindered the outlook of short-term price action. The ideal scenario is for SOL to see a slight pullback to 20.83 before making another breakout attempt to close above the trendline, or around 24.5.: [Chart Link](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSDT/gyZMP9Sk-SOL-Daily-Outlook/)

**SOL Daily Resistance zones**

1. 22.74 - 25.03
2. 25.83 - 28.78
3. 29.33 - 30.63

**SOL Daily Support zones**

1. 20.83 - 20.01
2. 19.41 - 18.18
3. 15.52 - 14.47

## Further Reading

**[Market Trend](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/2038/)**｜NFT Sales Spike By 8% After Months Of Declines, Polygon Moves Towards A Hard Fork This Month

**[Stable Trading Wins in the Long Run! Strive to Become A Stable Lead Trader; Fight Against the Bear!](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/2042/)** | Gate.io Copy Trading encourages everyone not to pursue a high return in a single trade, but to pursue a steady stream of small returns in each trade, and try to reduce risks.

**[Gate Charity Hosted Its First Charity Event In Japan, Giving English Lessons For Children](https://www.gate.io/blog_detail/2041/)** | Gate Charity’s goal is to provide children with the opportunity to learn a new language, which will help them to develop better communication skills and increase their chances of success in the future.

## Notable headlines

**🔹 Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, is considering purchasing up to $1 billion worth of assets from Digital Currency Group**, which owns the lender Genesis. Sun did not specify which assets he plans to buy.

**🔹 Crypto wallet provider MetaMask will now allow users to participate in liquid staking through Lido and Rocket Pool**, according to an announcement from ConsenSys. This new service allows users to stake their ETH and receive liquid staking tokens directly from the staking provider within the web3 app. Users can also swap their liquid-staked ETH back to ETH within the staking interface, but there may be fees associated with this.

**🔹 Ethereum has launched a new developer network in advance of the upcoming Shanghai upgrade**. Developers are also preparing to conduct a shadow fork of Shanghai on the mainnet in the coming weeks.

**🔹 Nexo has seen withdrawals of over $158 million in the 24 hours following an investigation into alleged illegal activities by Bulgarian prosecutors**. A spokesperson for Bulgaria’s chief prosecutors denied that the probe has any political motivations.

**🔹 According to data from BTC.com, [Bitcoin](https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT)'s mining difficulty has increased by 10.26%.** The increase is likely due to the return of hashrate online following a recent storm in the US and the deployment of newer, more efficient mining machines.

**🔹 Azuki has launched a virtual city called Hilumia to expand its universe.** The project was launched on Jan. 12 to mark Azuki's anniversary. Azuki says that Hilumia will connect the digital and physical worlds through its Physical Backed Token (PBT).

**🔹 The Bank of Thailand plans to allow virtual banks to operate in the country by 2025**, according to a Bloomberg report. Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission recently announced plans to strengthen rules for crypto to expand investor protection. The authority is also developing a strict set of guidelines for crypto ads.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:** Peter L.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.