Good morning, today is Monday, Nov. 08, 2022.

TL;DR

• Bitcoin and Ether dropped over the weekend. BTC Key Level: 20,575 (61.8% Daily Fibonacci Retracement level). ETH Key Level: 1,575 (61.8% Daily Fibonacci Retracement Level)

🔹 Investors’ attentions shift to the US’s midterm election results to gauge a future policy outlook in the country while awaiting Wednesday’s China CPI data.

• This week investors eye US CPI data on Thursday.

• The inverse correlations with volatility and the US dollar are below -0.90 and -0.78 for both BTC & ETH, implying high movements ahead.

• Dow Jones correlations at 0.83, but Nasdaq at -0.21, implying tech sectors are losing steam after the recent earnings rally.

• Last week, US jobs data showed disappointing results with NFP down 50k since August and Unemployment rising slightly, further exacerbating fears over the latest rate hike and its ramifications across markets.

• The topic of the Day: Meta plans to start mass layoffs this week

• Happenings of the Week: Circle to issue Euro Coin on Solana. And Biden said Twitter is "an institution that spreads lies to the world.

💰 . . .

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 20,632 (-1.87%)

Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,573 (-1.01%)

On Tuesday, investors’ attentions shift to the US’s midterm elections results to gauge a future policy outlook in the country. The US inflation rate (CPI) is due for release on Thursday while the UK Q3 GDP is due Friday.

• Correlations with Dow Jones Index remained flat

  • BTC Current: 0.85; 24HR: 0.83; 1W: 0.73
  • ETH Current: 0.90; 24HR: 0.83; 1W: 0.85

• Correlations with S&P 500

  • BTC remained flat at Current: 0.70; 24HR: 0.69; 1W: 0.79
  • ETH rose slightly to Current: 0.75; 24HR: 0.75; 1W: 0.81

• Correlations with Nasdaq dropped to

  • BTC Current: 0.19; 24HR: 0.21; 1W: 0.66
  • ETH Current: 0.24; 24HR: 0.26; 1W: 0.60

• Correlation with US dollar Index remained flat ****at

  • BTC Current: -0.80; 24HR: -0.78; 1W: -0.77
  • ETH Current: -0.79; 24HR: -0.78; 1W: -0.72

• Correlation with Volatility Index slightly rose to ****

  • BTC Current: -0.92; 24HR: -0.91; 1W: -0.88
  • ETH Current: -0.96; 24HR: -0.96; 1W: -0.91

2️⃣ . . .

Wednesday

01:30 UTC

China Inflation Rate

Actual: ____ ; Consensus: 2.4%; Previous: 2.8%

China's annual inflation dropped to 2.8% yoy in October 2022 from 2.8% in the prior month, matching market consensus.

This was the highest rate since April 2020, mainly due to a sharp jump in the cost of food.

Statistic agency's data showed Chinese food inflation climbed to its highest in 25 months (8.8% vs 6.1% in August), with pork prices accelerating further despite efforts from authorities to release national meat reserves into the market.

In the meantime, non-food inflation eased to 1.5% from 1.7%, amid smaller increases in prices of transport & communication (4.5% vs 4.9%), housing (0.3% vs 0.6%), clothing (0.5% vs 0.6%), and education, culture (1.2% vs 1.6%).

China has set a target of CPI at around 3% for 2022, the same as in 2021.

2️⃣ . . .

Tuesday

2022 US Midterm Elections

Election Day is less than 24 hours away in the United States, where millions of voters are expected to cast their ballots on Tuesday in key midterms.

The vote to determine the next makeup of Congress comes as the country faces intense political polarisation and amid widespread concerns over a struggling economy, reproductive rights, and the future of democracy itself.

The results will also set the tone for the last two years of Democratic President Joe Biden’s term, as a strong Republican showing could upend his domestic and foreign policy plans.

For months, people in the US have raised concerns about skyrocketing inflation, spurred in part by global crises such as the war in Ukraine.

A Monmouth University poll from early October found that 82 percent of Americans said inflation was an “extremely or very important” issue for the government to tackle – making it the top issue on their radars ahead of the midterms.

Democrats say the future of US democracy is at risk, as Republicans have nominated dozens of candidates who dispute the country’s 2020 presidential elections that Biden won over former President Donald Trump.

1️⃣ . . .

Monday

COP27

U.N. climate talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, known as COP27, get underway this week, with many of the parties looking for concrete pledges to combat the damaging effects of climate change.

It's a trend that's been seen since the 2015 Paris Agreement to curb warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, where progress is yet to be made despite many workshops, summits and conferences.

"Moving from negotiations and pledges to an era of implementation is a priority," said COP27 President Sameh Shoukry, adding that now was the time to put the money on the table.

Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reached new record highs in 2021, while increasing temperatures, a loss of biodiversity and extreme weather events like floods and hurricanes are said to be growing in intensity.

It doesn't help that the globe is dealing with an energy crisis at the same time that fossil fuel manufacturing usage is being outsourced to developing nations, where deregulation of environmental protections has been used to advance their economies.

This can even be seen among countries that are powering the green revolution, like nickel smelting for EV batteries, with further criticism being leveled at the sustainable commitments of some of the world's most profitable companies.

11:00 UTC

China Balance of Trade: Actual: 85.15; Consensus: 95.95; Previous: 84.74

Strong Yuan, Weak Dollar, Strong Crypto.

But the numbers are starting to narrow as domestic consumption tightens all the while generating income from trade mostly due to an abruption to supply chains and ongoing covid-zero restrictions.

A dollar value with a high inverse correlation to BTC & ETH implies more volatile moves will be reflected in cryptocurrencies.

• China's trade surplus was at USD 85.2 billion in October 202, little changed from a surplus of USD 84.8 billion in the same month the prior year, missing market forecasts of a surplus of USD 95.95 billion.
• Exports fell 0.3% yoy, the first drop since May 2020, amid lackluster overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally; while imports shrank at a faster 0.7%, the first decline since August 2020 as domestic demand weakened amid strict COVID curbs.
• Meantime, China's trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 34.19 billion from USD 36.07 billion in September.

💡 . . .

Today's Markets

BTC -1.56%; Ether -0.88%.

Asia: Japan +1.21%; Hong Kong -0.38**%**; China -0.72%; India +0.39%.

Europe: London +0.18%; Paris 0.00%; Frankfurt +0.55%.

Futures at 02:00, Dow +0.09%. S&P +0.03%; Nasdaq +0.13%.

US Ten-year Treasury Yield remained flat at 4.218%.

UK Ten-year Government Bonds up 10 bps at 3.639%.

US dollar Index +0.08% at 109.87.

Gold -0.16%; Brent Crude -0.66%.

Catalysts between Nov. 08 - Nov. 11:

• Tuesday: 2022 US Midterm Elections
• Wednesday: China Inflation Rate (CPI)
• Thursday: US Inflation Rate (CPI)
• Friday: UK Q3 GDP, November Michigan Consumer Sentiment

💡 . . .

🟠 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 20,350 (38.2% Monthly Fibonacci Retracement Level)
• Closest support zone: 21,000 - 21,690
• Key resistance level: 21,000 - 21,690

Analysis as of Nov. 07 - Nov. 11 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 21,000 - 21,690
2. 22,490 - 23,290

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 20,335 - 19,720
2. 17,700 - 17,088

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 20,575 - 20,465
• Closest resistance zone: 20,575 - 20,915
• Key Level: 61.8% (20,575) Daily Fibonacci Retracement level

Nov. 08 02:35 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $20,638, down -1.67% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 20,575 - 20,915
2. 21,080 - 21,385
3. 21,500 - 21,755

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 20,575 - 20,465
2. 20,340 - 20,120
3. 20,115 - 20,975

🔵 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 1,455 (61.8% Weekly Fibonacci Level from Jul. 06 - Aug. 08)
• Closest support zone: 1,575 - 1,500
• Key resistance zone: 1,705 - 1,735

Analysis as of Nov. 07 - Nov. 11 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,705 - 1,735
2. 1,770 - 1,855
3. 2,010 - 2,090

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,575 - 1,500
2. 1,450 - 1,415
3. 1,390 - 1,345

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,575 - 1,545
• Closest resistance zone: 1,590 - 1,615
• Key Level: 1,575 (61.8% Daily Fibonacci Retracement Level)

Nov. 08 02:47 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,572, or down 1.28% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,590 - 1,615
2. 1,625 - 1,645
3. 1,755 - 1,765

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,575 - 1,545
2. 1,520 - 1,500
3. 1,490 - 1,480

📌 The topic of the Day: Gate.io reserve certificate shows users have over 100% of assets in reserve

On November 7, cryptocurrency exchange Gate.io has demonstrated that it holds 108 percent of its users' total BTC assets in reserve, according to third-party auditing firm Armanino LLP.

In addition, the report found that users' ETH assets in reserve represent 104% of users' ETH, meaning that Gate.io's BTC and ETH reserves exceed the total amount of users' assets.

The audit used a unique proof-of-reserves method, "proof-of-reserves", which allows users to securely and privately verify that they are included in the proof through a cryptographic Merkle tree, one of the core components of Bitcoin.

Armanino LLP is said to be one of the 25 largest independent accounting firms in the United States, a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and the Center for Audit Quality, and is licensed by the California State Board of Accountancy.

🗒 Happenings of The Week (Nov. 06 - Nov. 07):

📣 Notables

🔹 Russia's central bank released a report aimed at integrating crypto assets into the financial system. The report's main areas of focus include proper taxation and regulation of the issuance of digital assets. Subsequently, the Bank of Russia expressed interest in "opening the domestic market to foreign issuers from friendly countries" in a Telegram post. The report also noted that the Bank of Russia is writing an independent report on the digital ruble and that a digital ruble pilot will take place in 2023.

🔹 South Korea's political committee will discuss the amendment to the Basic Act on Digital Assets on November 15. The bill prioritizes the protection of user assets and defines unfair trading practices, such as the use of undisclosed information, market price manipulation or self-issued digital asset transactions, and can result in the confiscation of property or additional levies on property.

🔹 On November 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the European Commission will "soon" present legislative proposals on the digital euro. Lagarde said, "The timely adoption of a legal framework for the digital euro will provide the necessary legal certainty for all stakeholders, prepare for a possible introduction and send a strong signal of political support."

🔹 RBI deputy governor: Stablecoin can be completely replaced by central bank digital currency. Private digital currencies do not provide the use cases that legal digital currencies do not.

🔹Recently, the Finance Bureau, Taxation Bureau and Economic Development Bureau of China's Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone jointly issued a notice on ten taxation measures to support the development of metaverse industry.

📣 Nov. 08

🔹 Watchmaker Rolex has recently filed trademark applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) covering NFT, NFT-enabled media, NFT marketplaces, crypto keys and transactions, virtual goods auctions, virtual currency and cryptocurrency transactions and transfers, tweeted Mike Kondoudis, Trademark Attorney at the USPTO.

🔹Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Cryptocurrencies are no longer the top 10 most frequently cited potential risks. On November 8, a survey revealed that 10 risk factors surpassed cryptocurrencies as the most pressing financial risk to the U.S. economy, including geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, inflationary crises, risky asset corrections, U.S. foreign corporate divestment, U.S.-China relations, corporate credit stress, cyber attacks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and more.

📣 Nov. 07

🔹Theirsverse Series NFT Rises to #1 on OpenSea Trend. The collection has increased by more than 129% in 24 hours, with a floor price of up to 0.73 ETH, and now stands at 0.67 ETH. Theirsverse aims to give a voice to transgender mobile people of different races.

🔹Musk releases 'Twitter Rules' with emphasis on privacy, authenticity and 5 other key points. The rules are set out in a total of 5 key areas of focus, including security, privacy, authenticity, enforcement and appeals, and third-party advertising in video content, respectively.

🔹Twitter co-founder and former CEO Jack Dorsey has unfollowed FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) on Twitter.

🔹Appliance maker LG Electronics is hiring chief technology officers (CTOs) for two divisions, business development and service design, to lead the company's growing Web3 business. The former will develop new business in the blockchain and Web3 space, and build partnerships in the global Web3 space. The latter is expected to design and develop DApps and conduct research on blockchain and Web3 services.

🔹Circle to issue Euro Coin, a euro-stabilized coin, on Solana in early 2023. Circle launched Euro Coin in June this year and it is currently running on Ethereum. Euro Coin uses the same USD stablecoin USDC reserve model, 100% backed by euro-denominated reserves that can be converted into euros at a 1:1 ratio.

📣 Nov. 06

🔹Biden: Twitter is "an institution that spreads lies to the world." Musk has previously fired most of Twitter's executives and board of directors, and he will reportedly fire about half of the company's employees.

📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 UAE-based digital payment services platform Pyypl closed a $20 million Series B funding round with undisclosed investor information. Pyypl will use the proceeds to expand its financial inclusion programs in the Middle East and Africa, and will also use the proceeds for product development to enhance the user experience and support growth in current and new markets.

🔹 Blockchain startup Assert AI closes $2 million funding round with participation from Quona Capital and others. The company plans to use the new funding to introduce a public agriculture blockchain ledger and support its vision of artificial intelligence and deep technology for storage, financing and commercial products, while expanding its solutions into agri-tech, food storage, and deeper penetration into warehousing, logistics, supply chain management, manufacturing and retail.

📣 This week’s onchain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Monday, U.S. attorneys announced that James Zhong pleaded guilty to wire fraud charges for illegally obtaining bitcoins from the Silk Road darknet in 2012. In November 2021, law enforcement officials seized over 50,676 bitcoins, then valued at more than $3.36 billion, from Zhong's home. The case is set for sentencing on February 22, 2023, and the DOJ says it carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison, with the exact length of the sentence set by Congress.