Daily News | Market Oscillates Narrowly, Waiting for This Week's Macro News to Stimulate the Market

2024-08-19, 04:09

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## Crypto Daily Digest: Wall Street is betting on interest rate cuts, but the inflow of funds into the crypto market is poor
According to Farside Investor data, the overall inflow of <a href="/th/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs in the United States last week was about $30 million, of which BlackRock IBIT inflow was $70 million, a significant decrease from July; Grayscale GBTC outflow of nearly $200 million.

Last week, the overall outflow of funds from <a href="/th/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> spot ETFs was around $15 million, and the overall trading volume of Ethereum ETFs was relatively small, resulting in a small inflow of funds. ETH ETF underperformed expectations.

**On Thursday, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and the number of jobless claims for the week will be released, and Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook on Friday night**

The main macroeconomic events that may affect the trend of the <a href="/th/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a> this week include:

On Wednesday, August 21 at 1:35 am (Beijing time), 2024 FOMC voting committee member and Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic will deliver a speech.

On Thursday, August 22 at 2:00 am (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

On Thursday, August 22 at 20:30 (Beijing time), the US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 17.

On Friday, August 23 at 22:00 (Beijing time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Conference.

**AVAX worth nearly $200 million will be unlocked on August 20th, accounting for 2.41% of the circulating supply**

According to Token Unlocks data, there will be 9 projects unlocking tokens this week, with a total amount of approximately $219 million. The large-scale unlocking includes:

Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 54.37 million tokens at 18:00 (Beijing time) on August 19, accounting for 7.05% of the current circulation and worth approximately $7.8 million;

<a href="/th/price/avalanche-avax" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Avalanche</a> (AVAX) will unlock approximately 9.54 million tokens at 8:00 am (Beijing time) on August 20, accounting for 2.41% of the current circulation and worth approximately $197 million;

SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 18.49 million tokens at 8:00 am (Beijing time) on August 22, accounting for 4.29% of the current circulation and worth approximately $6.63 million;

Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 14.89 million tokens at 3:00 pm (Beijing time) on August 25, accounting for 0.82% of the current circulation and worth approximately $4.44 million.

**Wall Street is betting on confirming a rate cut, but if it falls short of expectations, it may trigger negative sentiment**

According to market data, Wall Street is betting that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will confirm at the Jackson Hole annual meeting that the Fed is about to cut interest rates. But as the focus shifts from “whether there will be a rate cut” to “how big the rate cut will be”, stock traders may be disappointed.

“If traders hear about an upcoming interest rate cut, the stock market will react positively,” said Eric Beiley, Executive Managing Director of Wealth Management at Steward Partners Global Advisory. “If the desired information is not heard, it will trigger a large-scale sell-off.” The market fully expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates at its September meeting. But Powell was easily tight lipped about the timing of the interest rate cut when he spoke on Friday. Based on his characteristics, he is also likely to adopt a cautious and ambiguous approach to reveal how much interest rates may decrease after the Federal Reserve completes easing. “The market is confident that there will be a rate cut soon," Beiley said. If Powell does not emphasize that this is the future path, it would be a huge surprise.

## Market Trends: BTC experiences narrow fluctuations, while the virtual coin RARE saw a two-week increase of over 500%
### Mainstream Coins
BTC fluctuated narrowly around $60,000 over the weekend, still maintaining a downward trend. Last week, the overall ETF inflow was only $30 million, indicating poor capital inflow;

ETH also fluctuated narrowly between $2,600 and $2,700, with a net outflow of around $15 million from ETH ETF funds last week;

Altcoins have generally fallen sharply, but some virtual coins such as RARE have performed very well.
### Data Indicators
Today, the AHR999 index is at 0.64, getting closer and closer to the bottom buying range;

The Fear & Greed Index is 28, and it is expected that market sentiment will continue to be sluggish.
### Market Hotspots:
RARE: The SuperWare token RARE has risen by over 500% in the past two weeks, with a current circulating market value of $250 million. The situation of RARE is somewhat similar to TRB at the end of 2023, where spot prices have been continuously rising, but at the same time, contract funding rates have been consistently high, resulting in a huge unilateral upward trend. The market is in a boring phase of sideways trading, and the hot topic of fund creation attracts attention.

Ton Ecosystem: TON rose 10% over the weekend, leading the Ton Ecosystem Meme token NOT to rise. From a news perspective, TON's rise is due to the upcoming launch of top trading platforms, as well as the expected issuance of coins from popular games such as Dogs and Hamster Kombat in the Ton ecosystem.

## Macroeconomics: Last week, the three major US stock indexes rose sharply, and investors eased their concerns about market recession
Last Friday, the three major US stock indices collectively closed higher, with the S&P 500 index rising 0.20% to 5,554.25 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24% to 40,659.76 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.21% to close at 17,631.72 points.

Last week, a series of better than expected economic and employment data released by the United States eased investors' concerns about the US economy falling into recession, boosted market risk appetite, and all three major US stock indexes rose cumulatively. Among them, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.94%, the largest weekly increase since the beginning of this year, the S&P 500 index rose 3.93%, and the Nasdaq rose 5.29%, both of which achieved their largest weekly gains since November last year.

This week, as one of the most important central bank meetings in the world, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is scheduled to be held from August 22nd to 24th. At that time, central bank governors and economists from various economies, including the Federal Reserve, will gather to discuss the most important topics of global economy and monetary policy. The speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has received particular attention. Investors expect Powell to release important monetary policy clues in his speech, paving the way for a rate cut in September. It is also worth paying attention to whether Powell's speech will trigger fluctuations in the financial market.
### Conclusion
Last week, the inflow of funds in the crypto market was poor, with BTC and ETH fluctuating within a narrow range. Despite the sluggish performance of the overall market, individual tokens such as RARE and TON ecosystems have performed well. The upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and Powell's speech this week may have a significant impact on market trends. Investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic events and token unlocking situations, and operate cautiously to cope with possible market fluctuations.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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