Daily News | Bitcoin Spot ETFs May Be Approved in January Next Year; India is in a Leading Position in Crypto; CYBER, APE and ROSE Will Unlock Large Amounts This Week

2023-11-13, 04:30

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## Crypto Daily Digest: Matrixport's Six Predictions on the Crypto Market, Four Tokens to be Unlocked in Large Amount This Week

Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen has released six forecasts for the crypto market in the first half of 2024, namely the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January, the possibility of Circle listing in April, FTX 2.0 starting operations in May or June and restoring its position as the top three exchanges within 12 months, the <a href="/th/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> EIP-4844 upgrade plan to be carried out in the first quarter of 2024, and the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June.

Andrei Grachev, co-founder of DWF-Labs, stated in a post that the CMC index went from Fear to almost Extreme Greed within 30 days. The market feels many good expectations and almost no threat. But be careful when using multiple leverage, the market is still unstable, but if you are building and financing, this is the best time.

Grachev also added that trading volume has doubled, trading activity is recovering, and liquidity is increasing. Importantly, this is driven by retail investors, not algorithmic traders, as we can see that several Altcoins have surged this week. These are all signs of recovery. Although it's not yet the Altcoin season, people are already speculating.

According to Bitcoin News, Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, recently gave a comprehensive outlook on the future development trajectory of BTC at the 2023 Australian Cryptocurrency Conference. He talked about the BTC halving in 2024 and predicted that next year will be crucial for BTC, as it will become a "mainstream asset during adolescence" by the end of next year.

Looking ahead to 2024-2028, Saylor predicts that BTC will enter a high growth stage, and it is expected that large technology industries and banks around the world will widely adopt BTC and integrate it into their respective products and services.

In addition, he pointed out that major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank may be involved in activities such as issuing loans, providing collateralization, customizing, and buying and selling Bitcoin.

From a long-term perspective of approximately 25 years, Saylor predicts that BTC will dominate all high-quality assets and emphasizes its potential to exceed the growth of the S&P 500 index and diversified investment portfolios.

According to News.<a href="/th/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a>, US Senator Cynthia Lummis defended cryptocurrency and opposed the claim that the asset class was heavily used for illegal finance. The senator emphasized that "cryptocurrencies are not a problem, there are bad actors in every industry," Cynthia Lummis pointed out that cryptocurrencies account for less than 1% of all illegal financial activities. In addition, she also urged Congress to establish a regulatory framework that allows cryptocurrency companies to operate in the United States, rather than pushing them into “unregulated foreign markets.”

According to the 2023 Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index report released by blockchain analysis platform Chainalysis, India ranks first in cryptocurrency adoption. This index appears in Chainalysis's annual "Cryptocurrency Geography" report, specifically evaluating the adoption of cryptocurrencies by the general population, rather than focusing solely on transaction volume. India ranks higher in the index than other countries with higher levels of cryptocurrency trading and mining activity.

In addition, based on the original estimated cryptocurrency value received between July 2022 and June 2023, India ranked second among the top ranked countries. According to the Chainalysis report, in the past year, India received approximately $250 billion in cryptocurrency value, second only to the United States, with the United States receiving approximately $1 trillion in cryptocurrency value during the same period.

India ranks first in comprehensive index rankings, centralized service value rankings, retail centralized service value rankings, and DeFi value rankings, but fifth in P2P exchange trading volume rankings. Following India closely are Nigeria, Vietnam, the United States, Ukraine, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

This week, CYBER, APE, and ROSE will receive a one-time large unlock of tokens, with a total release value of over $48 million. Among them:

At 2:14 am (UTC) on November 15th, CyberConnect will unlock 1.26 million CYBERs (approximately $8.34 million), accounting for 11.43% of the circulation supply;

At 8:00 (UTC) on November 16th, <a href="/th/price/flow-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Flow</a> will unlock 2.6 million FLOWs (approximately $1.81 million), accounting for 0.25% of the circulating supply;

At 8:00 (UTC) on November 17th, <a href="/th/price/apecoin-ape" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">ApeCoin</a> will unlock 15.6 million APEs (approximately $23.25 million), accounting for 4.23% of the circulating supply;

At 12:00 (UTC) on November 19th, <a href="/th/price/oasis-network-rose" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Oasis Network</a> will unlock 196 million ROSEs (approximately $14.5 million), accounting for 3.9% of the circulating supply.

## Today’s Main Token Trends
### BTC
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/169985642314501699856352_.pic.jpg)
Last week, BTC closed at the $37,000 USD mark. This week, it opened with a high and flat performance, showing no significant trend. It is expected to continue steadily declining to the $36,000 USD support and face resistance at $37,755 USD. The weekly trend might drop to a minimum of $32,850 USD.

### ETH
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/169985644714511699856374_.pic_hd.jpg)
The daily chart attempts to break the $2,135 USD resistance, reaching a relatively high point in a year and a half. Short-term advice is to hold steady at $2,037 USD. If successful, the challenge is expected to break $2,135 USD and reach $2,381 USD. Also, there's a suggestion of chasing the trend with a hold at $2,045 USD.

### FTT
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/169985647214521699856394_.pic.jpg)
The overall trend from $1.3965 USD to $1.56 USD has risen to a high of $5 USD. Short-term support is at $3.21 USD, and resistance needs to consistently break $4.92 USD to target $6.49 USD and $11.04 USD.

## Macro: Moody's Ratings the United States as Negative, Focus on CPI Data This Week

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech forcefully overturned the previous "dovish pricing" in the market and plunged the market into "hawkish chaos" again. The strong US dollar recorded its best weekly performance since August, gold returned to near the $1,930 level, and the 30-year US bond auction sounded a liquidity alarm.

Moody's, the only of the three major rating companies in the world to maintain the highest US sovereign rating, also announced after the US stock market closed last Friday that it would maintain its highest investment grade Aaa rating but adjust its rating outlook from stable to negative. Moody's main consideration for making this decision is the continued high interest rates in the United States combined with a huge fiscal deficit, coupled with the current state of mutual bargaining in Congress.

In the new week, CPI data and "panic data" will come hand in hand, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to disrupt traders' nerves. The US government's "shutdown" is also approaching.

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at a 22-year high after its November meeting.

Due to the disappointing employment report in the United States, the US dollar has suffered a strong blow. Last week, several Federal Reserve officials pointed out that the outstanding performance of the US economy has opened the door to further interest rate hikes, and there has been a weak recovery in the US dollar. Just last Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that officials "do not believe" that interest rates are high enough to indicate the end of the fight against inflation.

Powell stated in a speech at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday that in order to reduce inflation to 2%, more tightening measures may ultimately be needed. The market interprets Powell's remarks as hawkish, changing the dovish tone he expressed at last week's policy meeting.

Nevertheless, investors still largely do not believe that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again. According to federal fund futures, they believe that there is only a 20% chance of a final 25 basis point rate hike by January next year, and they expect a rate cut of around 80 basis points by the end of next year.

Perhaps it is because there are still a lot of "dovish-stance members" within the Federal Reserve, or perhaps market participants expect inflation to fall again, especially after the fall in oil prices in October, when the economy will continue to weaken.

In fact, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates that the annualized growth rate of the United States in the fourth quarter was 2.1%, which seems normal in an environment of high interest rates and an acceleration of the US economy to 4.9% in the third quarter.

Given all of this, the focus of this week may shift to the US October CPI data released on Tuesday, which may be a key report determining whether the Federal Reserve will take action in December.

It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of the overall CPI will fall from 3.7% to 3.3%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI will fall from 4.1% to 4.0%. In addition, considering that the PMI in October showed a decrease in price pressure, inflation risk may tend to decline, and as the year-on-year change in oil prices becomes negative again, overall inflation may continue to weaken before the end of the year.

Although the core CPI is still slowing at a stable rate, overall inflation in the United States has been rising slightly in the past three months. In September, the core CPI in the United States slowed down from 4.3% to 4.1%, mainly due to the slight increase in rent and fuel prices. This has indeed raised concerns that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates again between now and the end of the year.

For the Federal Reserve officials who appeared this week, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby goes without saying that he is a staunch “dove,” while New York Fed Chairman Williams is Powell's "staunch ally" and is expected to reiterate some of Powell's views expressed on Thursday. Boston Fed Chairman Collins and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley are expected to continue to reiterate the Fed's "higher and longer" expectations.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Byron B.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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