Daily News | Crypto Mostly Flat Weekend Despite A Recovering Global Macro Outlook

Good morning, today is Monday, Nov. 14, 2022.

TL;DR

🔹 BTC & Ether’s correlations with US Dollar Index (DXY) are positive and rising, at the same time, inversely correlated with global equities, particularly the DAX and Nasdaq. This means crypto follows the dollar’s movement for now.

🔹 Investors look to Monday’s G20 meeting to gauge the outlook of China and the US while awaiting Tuesday’s reports: Japan’s Q3 GDP, UK Unemployment, US PPI.

🔹 Beijing relaxes Covid-zero for property markets, FTX filed for bankruptcy, Wall Street whales turn bearish, CZ pushes for crypto self-custody.

🔹 The topic of the Day: FTX hacked via backdoor, Gate.io returned in full of Crypto.com’s transfer, CEO Han Lin tweeted to clarify PoR snapshot date.

🔹 Happenings of the Week: Musk fires 80% of Twitter staff, SBF declares bankruptcy, BitCoke suspends withdrawal, CZ tweets he’ll be more transparent.

💰 . . .

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 16,052 (-4.84%)

Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,183 (-6.48%)

On Monday, cryptocurrencies remained under pressure amid concerns about withdrawal from FTX despite a shift in tone on the macro front after last week’s CPI reading showed inflation is slowing in the US economy.

• Asian equities advanced with support from the biggest rally seen in US equities since June. Beijing unveiled an extensive 16-point rescue marketplac2304kage for the struggling real estate market, just days after announcing 20 measures to guide officials as it eases its contentious Covid-Zero policy.

• Institutional investors are souring on cryptocurrencies. The losses are too great and the market structure is too risky, they say. The FTX collapse is “raising questions on the viability of the crypto ecosystem,” said Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Fidelity International, which oversees $646 billion from London.

• Crypto.com said it was supposed to move 320,000 in Ether to a new cold storage address but the funds were sent instead to a whitelisted external exchange address. Gate.io founder and CEO Lin Han tweeted Gate’s proof of reserves audit was based on a snapshot taken two days before Crypto.com’s accidental deposit, clearing the rumors surrounding Crypto.com’s mistaken transfer.

5️⃣ . . .

Tuesday

23:50 UTC

Japan Q3 GDP YoY

Actual: Awaiting data; Consensus: 1.1%; Previous: 3.5%

The Japanese economy grew 3.5 percent on an annualized basis in Q2 of 2022, beating market forecasts of a 2.9 percent increase and picking up sharply from an upwardly revised 0.2 percent rise in Q1.

07:00 UTC

UK Unemployment SEP

Actual: Awaiting data; Consensus: 3.5%; Previous: 3.5%

In August, UK’s economic inactivity rate increased by 0.6 percentage points or by 252K to 21.7%, the most since records began in 1971, either because people were sick or because they were students.

13:30 UTC

US PPI OCT

Actual: Awaiting data; Consensus: 0.5%; Previous: 0.4%

In September, the Producer Price Index for final demand in the US went up 0.4%, the first increase in three months, and twice the market expectation of a 0.2% rise.

• Cost of services rose 0.4%, with prices for traveler accommodation services jumping 6.4%.
• Cost of goods went up 0.4%, with food prices rising 1.2%.
• Conversely, the index for gasoline fell 2%. Year-on-year, producer prices rose 8.5%, the smallest rate since July last year, but slightly above forecasts of 8.4%.

5️⃣ . . .

Friday

UK GDP Growth Rate

Actual: 2.4%; Consensus: 2.1%; Previous: 4.4%

• The British economy expanded 2.4% year-on-year in Q3 2022, the lowest reading since the contraction in Q1 2021, but slightly above market expectations of 2.1%. The pound sterling (GBPUSD) jumped more than 1% following the news, dragging down the dollar but failing to catalyze cryptocurrencies.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Actual: 54.7%; Consensus: 59.5%; Previous: 59.9%

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US fell to 54.7 in Nov. 2022, the lowest since July, from 59.9 in October and below market forecasts of 59.5. Meanwhile, inflation expectations increased for both the year ahead (5.1% vs 5% in October) and the next 5 years (3% vs 2.9%).
• "All components of the index declined from last month…Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.", Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said.

💡 . . .

Today's Markets

BTC -0.38%; Ether -1.30%.

Asia: Japan +0.43%; Hong Kong +7.74**%**; China +1.69%; India +1.78%.

Europe: London +0.15%; Paris +0.58%; Frankfurt +0.56%.

Futures at 01:00, Dow +0.20%; S&P +0.26%; Nasdaq +0.41%.

US Two-year Treasury Yield up 5bps at 4.4%.

US Ten-year Treasury Yield up 3bps at 3.887%.

UK Ten-year Government Bonds up 6bps at 3.354%.

US Dollar Index +0.22% at 106.21.

FX at 02:00: GBP: -0.26%; EUR: -0.16%; JPY: +0.23%; CNY: -1.08%.

**Gold -**0.42%; Brent Crude +2.48%.

Catalyst this week

• Monday: G20 Meeting
• Tuesday: Japan Q3 GDP, UK Unemployment, US PPI (Producer Price Index)
• Wednesday: UK CPI, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales
• Thursday: Japan’s Balance of Trade
• Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales

🏦 . . .

🟠 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
• Closest support zone: 15,530 - 15,275
• Key resistance level: 16,690 - 16,880

Analysis as of Nov. 14 - 18 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 16,690 - 16,880
2. 17,085 - 17,450
3. 18,090 - 18,750

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 15,530 - 15,275
2. 14,650 - 14,030
3. 13,965 - 13,455

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 16,005 - 15,920
• Closest resistance zone: 16,280 - 16,745
• Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)

Nov. 14 01:46 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $16,080, or -4.82% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 16,280 - 16,745
2. 17,085 - 17,715

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 16,005 - 15,920
2. 15,535 - 15,270

🌐 . . .

🔵 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
• Closest support zone: 1,190 - 1,075
• Key resistance zone: 1,270 - 1,410

Analysis as of Nov. 14 - Nov. 18 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,270 - 1,410
2. 1,500 - 1,575
3. 1,710 - 1,855

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,190 - 1,075
2. 1,045 - 975
3. 910 - 875

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,190 - 1,175
• Closest resistance zone: 1,220 - 1,245
• Key Level: 1,346 (Weekly High of Jan. 04 - 10, 2021)

Nov. 14 01:18 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,196, or -5.00% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,220 - 1,245
2. 1,260 - 1,300

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,190 - 1,175
2. 1,145 - 1,120

💡 . . .

📌 Today's topic: FTX hacked via backdoor, Gate.io returned Crypto.com’s transfer

The shockwaves set off by the FTX incident are rippling throughout the market and have left people feeling unsettled this weekend.

On November 12, crypto security expert (@officer_cia) tweeted that multiple pkeys on the FTX side have been leaked and are suspected to have been hacked, and multiple project communities have warned users that the FTX App may currently have the potential to leak private keys and other important information.

Lookonchain data shows that the address marked as the "FTX attack hacker" is exchanging its assets for unfrozen DAI and ETH. The address has now received $189 million worth of ETH and DAI. blacklisted by Tether.

According to another Reuters report, at least $1 billion in customer funds have disappeared from FTX. Sources close to the matter said SBF had secretly transferred $10 billion of client funds from FTX to Alameda Research. One source said he estimated the unaccounted-for amount to be around $1.7 billion, while another said it was between $1 billion and $2 billion. An investigation by FTX's legal and financial teams found that SBF implemented a so-called "backdoor" into FTX's accounting system, which was built using custom software.

The hack of FTX is still fermenting, as another Twitter user (@jconorgrogan) posted that the crypto platform Crypto.com related address had transferred about 285,000 ETH to the trading platform Gate address in October, and then Crypto.com CEO Kris said it was a mistake, and after negotiations between the two sides, Gate.io said the full amount was returned on October 28th.

As early as October 19, Gate.io and the US auditing firm Armanino completed the 100% margin certification, so the previous rumors were not true.

Gate.io, as the first trading platform in the world to commit to providing 100% margin, works closely with Armanino LLP, a well-known U.S. auditing firm, to provide professional and credible asset verification services with open source, openness, transparency, blockchain signature and Merkle tree. Gate.io has now completed its second 100% margin audit, and users can view the results of this Gate.io asset audit in Armanino's official website.

👁️ . . .

Happenings of The Week (Nov. 11 - Nov. 14):

📣 Notables

🔹 Hong Kong Financial Secretary: We must prudently promote the development of the virtual asset industry in Hong Kong.

🔹 Russia and Turkey will cooperate to combat crime-related crypto transactions.

🔹 Bahamas Financial Crimes Investigation Bureau has officially intervened in the investigation of the FTX incident.

📣 Nov. 14

🔹 Chinese National Television (CCTV2 CCTV) financial channel reported "FTX declared bankruptcy.

🔹 Visa terminates its partnership with FTX.

🔹 Bloomberg: Most of FTX's assets have been devalued, and customers may have difficulty recovering most of their deposits. According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, the balance sheet provided by FTX is incomplete and not refined, and after reviewing a "limited version of the information," FTX's customers have little chance of recovering most of their deposits.

🔹 Musk abruptly lays off 80% of Twitter's contract workers, 4,400 in total. According to technology news site Platformer reporter Casey Newton, internal sources from Twitter say that the company has terminated the contracts of 4,400 contract workers, accounting for 80 percent of the total 5,500 contract workers. The layoffs are expected to have a significant immarketplac2304t on content review and the core infrastructure services that keep the site up and running. Full-time Twitter employees said they did not receive any internal notice before the contract workers they worked with were let go.

📣 Nov. 13

🔹 CZ: In the future, I will be more outspoken about the problems I see in the industry.

🔹 BitCoke says it is suspending coin withdrawals due to an investigation into the head of finance.

🔹 SBF and others have been placed under surveillance by relevant Bahamian agencies and have tried to flee to Dubai. On November 13, sources said that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), FTX co-founder Gary Wang, and engineering director Nishad Singh are currently under surveillance by Bahamas-related agencies, "which means it's difficult for them to leave [the region]. They have allegedly looked for ways to escape to Dubai, or because there is no extradition treaty between Dubai and the United States.

🔹Fidelity Analyst: FTX Crash May Trigger Institutional Investors to Abandon Cryptocurrency Market Investments. On January 13, Indiatimes reported that more and more institutional investors are becoming disenchanted with the FTX crash, with Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Fidelity International, saying that the FTX crash has raised questions about the viability of the crypto ecosystem for large institutional investors, who used to invest in cryptocurrencies on It has been difficult to invest in cryptocurrencies in the past, but now the pressure will be even greater.

🔹Forbes: FTX Crash May Spark Wave of Solana Eco-NFT Selling. According to publicly available data, NFT trading volume on Solana's on-chain NFT marketplace Magic Eden, OpenSea and Solanart has more than tripled from more than 80,000 per day a week ago to more than 250,000 at one point, indicating that holders are selling off NFT at a rapid marketplac2304e. In addition, the floor price of Solana's on-chain NFT projects has also suffered a significant setback, with DeGods, the floor price has dropped 66% to $2,700, the Solana Monkey Business floor price is down 68% to $2,000, and the y00ts floor price is down 70% to $840.

📣 Nov. 12

🔹Musk had rejected SBF's $5 billion participation in the Twitter acquisition and questioned its liquidity. Michael Grimes, head of Morgan Stanley's global technology investment bank, had mentioned to Musk that SBF was interested in contributing to the Twitter acquisition, according to deposition documents in the case of Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Michael Grimes said that SBF was willing to contribute $5 billion to the acquisition of Twitter and to provide technical support for Twitter's integrated blockchain. But Elon Musk was skeptical and questioned "Does Sam really have $3 billion in liquidity?” and now Musk tweeted a response that has confirmed the accuracy of the information.

🔹 Twitter will launch a crypto wallet in the near future. In the "EMERGENCY SPACE”, Elon Musk said he could see BTC, ETH, DOGE but not the others on Twitter.

🔹 Vitalik: FTX's fraud is worse than Mt. Gox. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin said "Mt. Gox just looks suspicious and has never overly whitewashed itself, nor has Luna. FTX, on the contrary, tries hard to look fully compliant when it really isn't. The second type of fraud is more serious than the first."

🔹 SoBTC on Solana is down over 77% and can no longer be redeemed.

📣 Nov. 11

🔹 SBF has resigned as CEO of FTX and FTX has filed for bankruptcy in the US.

🔹 FTX does business with over 53 auditors, payments and insurance companies, including Deloitte, Stripe and others.

🔹 Bitcoin's third largest giant whale added 2,677 BTC to its holdings yesterday.

🔹 Japan's Financial Services Agency has ordered the suspension of FTX Japan's operations and has a "written business improvement plan" in place.

🔹 Aptos enters into a partnership with Google Cloud.

🔹 BlockFi: Due to the FTX incident, the company is unable to conduct business as usual and will suspend withdrawal services.

🔹Musk: The possibility of Twitter going bankrupt exists.

📣 This week’s fund raising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Ping, a digital payment solution, closed a $15 million seed round with participation from Y Combinator and others. built on Latamex, a Latin American provider of cryptocurrency and fiat money access, Ping enables any individual, organization or company to create a free international account in US dollars and receive bank transfers, allowing users to trade cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

📣 This week’s onchain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Crypto security expert (@officer_cia) tweeted that the FTX app should be uninstalled immediately, as the FTX app may now have the potential to leak important information such as private keys. The address tagged as the "FTX attack hacker" is exchanging its assets for unfrozen DAI and ETH, according to Lookonchain data, which shows that the address has now acquired $189 million worth of ETH and DAI. 22 million USD), 73,350 BNB (approx. 20 million USD), 52.9 million SRM (approx. 18.6 million USD) and 2.6 million LINK (approx. 16.5 million USD), among others.