Fundamental & Technical Outlook:

TL;DR

🔹 Bitcoin and Ether entered into an accumulation phase with low volatility as they had been trading in a range since last Friday. Thursday, both coins were mostly flat during the Asian trading session.

🔹 Outperforming US retail sales and in-line Canada CPI data bolstered the dollar slightly but crypto markets still showed mixed strength on Wednesday.

🔹 BTC’s correlation to the dollar rose from -0.93 to 0.72 within ten days. Notably, volatility also rose from -0.93 to 0.19 during the same period. Correlation to gold continues to decrease, currently at -0.82, down from 0.16 ten days ago.

🔹 Thursday, investors will look to Japan’s latest inflation data to gauge the nation’s economic health and status of supply chains in the region following a worsening trade deficit report which revealed imports grew by a significant 53.5%.

🔹 The topic of the Day: SBF Denies Su Zhu’s Whistleblow, Celebrities promoting FTX are hit with a class action lawsuit

🔹 Happenings of the Week: U.S. House Financial Services Committee to hold hearings on the FTX collapse in December; Genesis suspended customer redemptions and new loan originations and CZ wants to buy old loans from Genesis; The SEC delays ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF approval date until early next year…

💰 . . .

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 16,717 (-0.46%)

Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,225 (-0.43%)

On Thursday, the two largest coins by market cap are showing weak buying power after breaking upward momentum on Wednesday.

Since the plunge occurred, it has been eleven days. (Nov. 6). During this period, BTC has been down by 24% and has recovered around 5%. Meanwhile, Ether recovered about 11% after falling 32%.

On Wednesday, Digital Currency Group’s Genesis ($2.8 billion in total active loans as of Q3) suspends lending withdrawals amid FTX’s collapse; DCG also controls digital-asset manager Grayscale Investments, which offers the world’s largest crypto fund, and DCG was quick to say on Wednesday that its products are functioning as normal.

On the macro front, US retail sales October data pointed to resilient consumer spending, outpacing estimates and indicating Fed tightening has further to run to stymie inflation.

In a separate report by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. increased its forecast for peak US interest rates to 5.25% at the top of the range, up from the previous call 5%.

Meanwhile, Canada’s inflation remained unchanged with food prices falling but gas prices soared and Japan’s trade deficit deepens for the 15th straight month, adding to concerns over the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

On Thursday, investors will look to Japan’s latest inflation data to gauge the nation’s economic health and status of supply chains in the region following a worsening trade deficit report which revealed imports grew by a significant 53.5%.

4️⃣ . . .

Thursday

23:30 UTC

Japan Inflation Rate YoY

Actual: Awaiting data; Consensus: 10.7%; Previous: 10.1%

• In September, Japan’s annual inflation rate was at 3.0% in September 2022, unchanged from August's near 8-year high figure, amid high prices of food and raw materials as well as yen weakness.
• Core consumer prices increased by 3.0% YooY, the most since September 2014, in line with forecasts but above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a sixth straight month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.3% in September, the same pace as in August.

3️⃣ . . .

Wednesday

07:00 UTC

UK Inflation Rate YoY

Actual: 11.1%; Consensus: 10.7%; Previous: 10.1%

• Annual inflation rate in the UK jumped to 11.1% in October of 2022, much higher than market forecasts of 10.7%. It is the highest inflation rate since October 1981, with main upward pressure coming from housing and household services (26.6% vs 20.2%), namely gas (128.9%) and electricity (65.7%).
• The rise was constrained by the Energy Price Guarantee, with the average unit cost of gas at 10.3 p/kWh, and electricity at 34 p/kWh. Without the EPG, the average unit prices for gas and electricity were expected to rise to 14.8 p/kWh and 51.9 p/kWh, respectively. Inflation would have risen to around 13.8% had the government not intervened to limit the price of household energy bills.
• Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (16.2% vs 14.5%) also marched higher.

13:30 UTC

Canada Inflation Rate YoY

Actual: 6.9%; Consensus: 6.9%; Previous: 6.9%

• Canada's annual inflation rate was at 6.9% in October, remaining unchanged from the prior month and in line with market expectations, as accelerated price growth for motor fuel and mortgages offset the slower inflation for food.
• Consumer costs rose at a faster pace for transportation (9.5% vs 8.7% in September), amid soaring gasoline prices (17.8% vs 13.2%), as output cut announcements by OPEC supported higher prices for crude oil.
• On the other hand, price growth eased for food (10.1% vs 10.3%), due to slowed grocery costs. The core inflation rate slowed to 5.8% from 6% in the previous period. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.7%, picking up from 0.1% in September.

US Retail Sales YoY

Actual: 1.3%; Consensus: 1%; Previous: 0.0%

• Retail sales in the US surged 1.3% month-over-month in October of 2022, the strongest increase in eight months, after a flat reading in September and beating market forecasts of a 1% gain.
• Sales at motor vehicle dealers were up 1.3% as supply chain constraints have been easing while rising gasoline costs pushed sales at gasoline stations 4.1% higher. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales were up 0.9%.
• Other increases were also seen for sales at food services and drinking places (1.6%), food and beverages stores (1.4%), nonstore retailers (1.2%), furniture (1.1%), building materials (1.1%), and health and personal care (0.5%).
• October data pointed to resilient consumer spending, despite high inflation and rising borrowing costs.

23:50 UTC

Japan’s Balance of Trade

Actual: ¥-2162.3B; Consensus: ¥-1610B; Previous: ¥-2094.3B

• Japan's trade deficit surged sharply to JPY 2,162.3 billion in October from JPY 90.7 billion YoY and compared with market consensus of a gap of JPY 1,610.0 billion.
• This was the 15th straight month of the deficit which was the longest stretch since 2015, adding to concerns over the strength of the country’s economic recovery.
• Imports climbed 53.5% yoy to a fresh peak of JPY 11,164.8 billion, while exports grew by 25.3% to JPY 9,001.5 billion.
• Considering the first ten months of the year, Japan logged a trade gap of JPY 16,389.6 billion, compared with a surplus of JPY 1,389.4 billion in the corresponding period in 2021. Meantime, the country’s trade deficit for the first half of FY 2022/2023 stood at JPY 11 trillion, the largest on record.

💡 . . .

Today's Markets

BTC -1.35%; **Ether -**3.58%.

Asia: Japan -0.36%; Hong Kong -2.52**%**; China -0.63%; India +0.03%.

Europe: London -0.13%; Paris -0.52%; Frankfurt -1.00%.

Futures at 02:00: Dow +0.06%; S&P +0.06%; Nasdaq +0.11%.

US Two-year Treasury Yield up 5bps at 4.382%.

US Ten-year Treasury Yield down 6bps at 3.729%.

UK Ten-year Government down 13bps at 3.152%.

US Dollar Index +0.31% at 106.15.

FX at 02:00: GBP: -0.34%; EUR: -0.26%; JPY: +0.10%; CNY: +0.64%.

**Gold -**0.32%; Brent Crude -1.07%.

Catalysts this week

• Thursday: Japan’s Balance of Trade
• Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales

🏦 . . .

🟠 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
• Closest support zone: 15,530 - 15,275
• Key resistance level: 16,690 - 16,880

Analysis as of Nov. 17 - 20 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 16,690 - 16,880
2. 17,085 - 17,450
3. 18,090 - 18,750

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 15,530 - 15,275
2. 14,650 - 14,030
3. 13,965 - 13,455

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 16,745 - 16,630
• Closest resistance zone: 17,085 - 17,205
• Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)

Nov. 17 02:21 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $16,638, or -1.38% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 17,085 - 17,205
2. 17,575 - 18,025
3. 18,215 - 18,430

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 16,745 - 16,630
2. 16,280 - 16,010
3. 15,535 - 15,200

🌐 . . .

🔵 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
• Closest support zone: 1,190 - 1,075
• Key resistance zone: 1,270 - 1,410

Analysis as of Nov. 17 - Nov. 20 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,270 - 1,410
2. 1,500 - 1,575
3. 1,710 - 1,855

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,190 - 1,075
2. 1,045 - 975
3. 910 - 875

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,240 - 1,215
• Closest resistance zone: 1,255 - 1,265
• Key Level: 1,346 (Weekly High of Jan. 04 - 10, 2021)

Nov. 17 02:24 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,214, or -3.73% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,255 - 1,265
2. 1,300 - 1,325
3. 1,345 - 1,390

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,240 - 1,215
2. 1,175 - 1,140
3. 1,120 - 1,060

📌 . . .

📌 Today's topic: SBF Denies Su Zhu’s Whistleblow, Celebrities promoting FTX are hit with a class action lawsuit

Three Arrows co-founder Zhu Su recently disclosed on Twitter that Ryan Salame, co-CEO of FTX's Bahamian subsidiary FTX Digital Markets, had personally cashed in about $1 billion through insider trading in FTX.

Subsequently, Kyle Davies, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, told the media that FTX and Alameda "colluded" with each other to bring down Three Arrows. FTX and Alameda colluded to carry out Stop Hunting, and as their largest client 3AC was "hunted" and their positions were liquidated.

A statement from FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried responded, "I am shocked. 100% disagree with ...... their (3AC's) allegations are untrue."

Previously, on November 13, Kyle Davies, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, posted on his personal social media platform that he was extremely shocked by the series of events that followed the LUNA crash back in May of this year. He now understands that FTX/Alameda preyed on Three Arrows Capital's positions in the event, ultimately causing it to lose all of its own money and that of its LPs/creditors.

Tom Brady, Gisele Bundchen, Steph Curry and Larry David are among the stars named in the lawsuit, which is being brought by Florida attorneys David Boies and Adam Moskowitz, according to The Block. filed the lawsuit. Former CEO SBF, who resigned from the company last week, is also named in the lawsuit. The lawsuit alleges that Brady, Bundchen and others "actively participated" in the "issuance and sale of unregistered securities in the form of revenue accounts.

Boies and Moskowitz are also reportedly filing a similar class action lawsuit against the Dallas Mavericks and their owner, Mark Cuban, for allegedly promoting the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency lending company Voyager.

As industry insiders analyze the growing fallout from the collapse of FTX, prominent figures have quietly erased evidence of their once-close ties to SBF.

For example, American football star Tom Brady, who bought a stake in FTX with his then-wife Gisele Bundchen in 2021, took to Twitter to remove all evidence of his ties to FTX and SBF, and CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham removed a photo of herself with SBF posted shortly after she was sworn in in April, and after FTX filed for bankruptcy last week. Pham continued to call for stricter global regulation in an interview with Bloomberg last week after FTX filed for bankruptcy. Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman deleted his supportive reply to SBF's apology tweet.

👁️ . . .

Happenings of The Week (Nov. 12 - Nov. 17):

📣 Notables

🔹 The U.S. House Financial Services Committee will hold hearings on the FTX collapse in December.

🔹 French central banker calls for global cooperative regulation, not allowing the next 'crypto winter' to remain financially unstable.

🔹 U.S. and Indian finance ministers emphasize in meeting: Crypto regulation requires international cooperation.

🔹 U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: FTX crash exposes weaknesses in the Crypto industry, the government will regulate the industry under the presidential executive order.

🔹 Hong Kong Financial Secretary: We must prudently promote the development of the virtual asset industry in Hong Kong.

🔹 Russia and Turkey will cooperate to combat crime-related crypto transactions.

🔹 Bahamas Financial Crimes Investigation Bureau has officially intervened in the investigation of the FTX incident.

🔹 Financial Crimes Investigation Bureau in Turkey, Bahamas officially involved in the investigation of the FTX incident.

📣 Nov. 16

🔹 Genesis suspended customer redemptions and new loan originations.

🔹 CZ is considering acquiring loans from Genesis.

🔹 Musk will find someone else to manage Twitter. The New York Times reported that he fired several employees who criticized him while warning the remaining employees in an email that they would have to "work long hours" if they wanted to keep their jobs.

🔹 New FTX CEO: SBF currently has no role at FTX Group and does not speak for the company.

🔹 US investors formally launched a class action lawsuit against SBF. The grounds are that the company's revenue crypto accounts violate Florida law and are an unregistered security that is illegal to sell in the United States. The lawsuit alleges that FTX's liquidity problems resulted in $11 billion in losses to U.S. investors.

🔹 Shorting agency Citron continues to short ETH, believing it to be as common sense flawed as FTX.

🔹 Bank for International Settlements: The vast majority of Bitcoin retail investors incurred losses. According to Bloomberg, a new working paper released by the Bank for International Settlements shows that by analyzing data from 95 countries from 2015 to 2022, the majority of retail investors entered at $20,000 in Bitcoin, with the vast majority of those users downloading a cryptocurrency trading app at that price point, and assuming $100 in Bitcoin was purchased that month, 81% have since then every month incur a floating loss.

🔹 Zhu Su: Co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets had cashed in about $1 billion through FTX insider trading.

🔹 US SEC delays ARK 21Shares Spot Bitcoin ETF approval date until early next year.

🔹 Prominent Lawyer Considers Class Action Lawsuit Against Celebrities Who Promoted FTX.

🔹 Crypto lending platform Salt has stopped accessing funds due to the FTX collapse.

🔹 CZ proposes six requirements for centralized exchanges to follow.

🔹 Hardware wallet makers Ledger and Trezor sales up sharply. Last Sunday was Ledger's biggest sales day ever.

📣 Nov. 15

🔹 Yuga Labs Launches NFT Museum Donation Program, Begins with CryptoPunk #305 to the Institute of Contemporary Art Miami

🔹 Fed's Harker: I think the pace of rate hikes will slow in the coming months.

🔹 Circle now allows partner businesses to accept Apple Pay as a payment method.

🔹 Cryptocurrency balances on centralized trading platforms have fallen to their lowest levels since November 2018.

🔹 The EU may ban privacy tokens like Zcash, Monero and Dash, the draft was circulated to the other 26 EU member states for comment.

🔹 Singer JJ Lin has set his Twitter self-promotion to jjlin.eth

🔹 25% to 40% of crypto hedge funds have direct exposure to FTX or FTT.

🔹 Alameda has used FTX on insider information to hoard tokens on several occasions.

🔹 Digital asset manager Valkyrie lays off 30% of its workforce.

🔹 CFTC Chairman: FTX derivatives business still operating healthy should be credited to government regulation.

🔹 Manchester United debuts official digital collection and launches Web3 community and plans to distribute NFT digital collections to its supporters through a Tezos-based platform.

🔹 Venture capitalist Kevin O'Leary considered bailing out FTX, but was blocked by SEC chairman.

🔹 FTX hackers lost a lot of tokens in a hasty move, but still hold $339 million in digital assets.

📣 Nov. 14

🔹 Musk: Bitcoin will succeed, but may experience a long winter.

🔹 CZ: In the long run, the FTX bankruptcy will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency industry.

🔹 Vitalik Buterin recently sold 3,000 Ether via Uniswap.

🔹 Chinese National Television (CCTV2 CCTV) financial channel reported "FTX declared bankruptcy.

🔹 Visa terminates its partnership with FTX.

🔹 Bloomberg: Most of FTX's assets have been devalued, and customers may have difficulty recovering most of their deposits.

🔹 Musk abruptly lays off 80% of Twitter's contract workers, 4,400 in total.

📣 Nov. 13

🔹 CZ: In the future, I will be more outspoken about the problems I see in the industry.

🔹 BitCoke says it is suspending coin withdrawals due to an investigation into the head of finance.

🔹 SBF and others have been placed under surveillance by relevant Bahamian agencies and have tried to flee to Dubai.

🔹Fidelity Analyst: FTX Crash May Trigger Institutional Investors to Abandon Cryptocurrency Market Investments.

🔹Forbes: FTX Crash May Spark Wave of Solana Eco-NFT Selling.

📣 Nov. 12

🔹Musk had rejected SBF's $5 billion participation in the Twitter acquisition and questioned its liquidity.

🔹 Twitter will launch a crypto wallet in the near future.

🔹 Vitalik: FTX's fraud is worse than Mt. Gox.

🔹 SoBTC on Solana is down over 77% and can no longer be redeemed.

📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 DEX platform Jumbo closes $3.5 million funding round with participation from Pantera Capital and others. Jumbo is an AMM DEX based on NEAR developed to provide cheap, easy and unrestricted access to trading.

🔹 Indian embedded AI financial services company Lentra closed a $60 million Series B round led by SIG and Bessemer Venture Partners. The Mumbai-based startup works with commercial banks to power their digital lending services, with HDFC Bank, Federal Bank, Standard Chartered Bank and IDFC First Bank as key customers. lentra Lending Cloud provides ready-to-use third-party API connectors for various data sources, as well as a loan management system (LMS) and a codeless business rules engine (BREx).

🔹 YAHAHA, Metaverse UGC (User-generated content) platform, has closed a $40 million Series A+ funding round, co-led by Temasek and Alibaba, followed by Sanji Mutual Entertainment, with T&H Capital acting as exclusive financial advisor. YAHAHA will continue to support its community of over 100,000 creators through studio partnerships, gas pedals, global events, Game Jams, and other diversified approaches.

🔹 Web3 game monetization platform PlayEmber closes $2.3 million seed round led by Shima Capital. PlayEmber aims to make it easier to transition game ad revenue from the web2 marketplace to web3 by implementing a Unity-based software development kit for custom monetization solutions. The startup is also backed by the NEAR Foundation and PlayEmber's beta product is now live.

🔹 Web3 native brand engagement platform Kalder closes $3 million pre-seed round with participation from Indigo Fund and others. The Kalder platform, which allows companies and creators to work together to launch campaigns, use the blockchain to track online brand engagement data and provide incentives to on-chain users, will reportedly use the new funding to enhance Web3 brand experience features and scale its team.

🔹 NFT Marketplace Joepegs Closes $5 Million Seed Round Led by FTX Ventures and Avalanche Foundation. The Joepegs team says the FTX Ventures funding arrived in June of this year, before FTX's bankruptcy restructuring. Launched in May, the Joepegs NFT marketplace is said to have quickly grown to become the largest NFT marketplace in the Avalanche ecosystem, with more than $3.4 million in secondary NFT sales and over 12,000 users. Joepegs features license-free, off-chain price storage, filtering, rarity display, and more.

🔹 Ping, a digital payment solution, closed a $15 million seed round with participation from Y Combinator and others. Built on Latamex, a Latin American provider of cryptocurrency and fiat money access, Ping enables any individual, organization or company to create a free international account in US dollars and receive bank transfers, allowing users to trade cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

📣 This week’s onchain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 DeFiAI project got rug pulled, contract deployer profited about $40 million, according to blockchain security audit company Beosin's Beosin EagleEye.

🔹 Crypto security expert (@officer_cia) tweeted that the FTX app should be uninstalled immediately, as the FTX app may now have the potential to leak important information such as private keys.