MinusTwoDegrees

The Mid-Autumn Festival effect is evident, and the market maker is entering, directly breaking through.

Before 9.17, BTC can be seen at 61600, 62300, 62650 in turn. Revisit 59300-58880 Margin Replenishment.

btc high point to see 2520-2560. pullback to 2399-2380 Margin Replenishment.

SOL swing trading sees a high point at 147.50-148.50. Pullback to 137.50-136.65 for Margin Replenishment.

On the third day of the Mid-Autumn Festival, you can find a high point to run, and then see the general direction after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.

btc: Short directly at 58200-58500, take profit half at around 57350 and attempt to adjust the position.

eth: Attempt to short at 2392, take profit half at 2336-2282 and adjust the position.

sol: Short at 136-137.50 and adjust the position.

The Rebound果然 ended.

If cpi isn't Favourable Information tonight, this wave of pump is over.

Long Wick Candle with a rebound volume at the 12-hour level 58150, the upward momentum is still there, gradually enter the long position at 58500-59300/59750.
Today, for intraday trading, you can add one short position first. If there is a pullback below 56150, there is an opportunity for a long position. Suitable entry points for short-term long positions are: 55950, 54850-54600, 53800. The entry point for short positions is the same as the take-profit point for long positions.
On Monday and Tuesday, there will be a rebound, followed by a small needle. In the second half of the week, there will be a big needle. Although there was a rebound of 5,000 points on Friday, the trend has not reversed yet.
SOL low long point: 131.50-129.85, defend 128.50; short point: 137.25, 141.25.
eth low points: 2332-2312-2292, defense 2280; short points: 2410, 2442/2460.

9.9 Morning Trading:

From Sunday to Monday, the rebound continued for 6 and 8 hours on an hourly basis, and on Monday to Tuesday, it continued on a 12-hour basis. The rebound is approaching its end and will fall again. Currently, there is no reversal, but the short order over the weekend should take profit for half of the floating profit first, and then wait for the rebound to reach a new high point before entering again. For those who are capable, they can also take a Light Position on the pullback and do some short positions. The take profit point for short positions is the entry point for short orders.

BTC: Rebounded to around 55250 near the 0.618 level in the second half of the night (given on Saturday), where it encountered resistance and retraced to 54600-53800, take profit at 75%. In the short term, go short again and move up to 55650 and 56150.

eth: 2310 has been broken twice. It reached MA7: 2334 around 6 a.m. today, and the pressure is here. Pull back to 2288-2260, take profit 75%, short-term resistance at 2360, 2410.

SOL: Enter short position and move up to 133.25-134.50. Pullback to 128.65-127.85 can go 75%. Look for swing trading low point again after Wednesday.

Explanation about next week's bottom-fishing btcSpot (synchronous with other currencies):

The standard for determining the lowest point is a Bearish line with a quick downward pullback and a long lower shadow. If it falls sharply next week, it will basically be the lowest point of the month. However, there are two situations to consider. Previously, it was recommended to enter a 10% position between 50,000-48,800 because it is the lowest point range of August's sharp drop. If next week's pullback is equidistant from August, it may rebound after reaching this point, but it will continue to adjust to a new low after the interest rate cut is implemented in the second half of the month. Therefore, buying near 50,000 directly catches the bottom of the first half of the month. Although the amount bought is small, there will be more opportunities to buy later when a new low is reached. If the lowest point of the month is directly reached on Thursday or Friday, at any point below 48,000, such as around 44,600 on the monthly midline, it can be determined as the lowest point of the month, and can be directly All in(short and medium-term). The 10% position bought at 5-4.8w will also be profitable very soon. Therefore, regardless of the situation, it is necessary to place an order at or below 50,000, because there will be a quick profit when it rebounds later.

Although market data has already indicated that it is a Bear Market since breaking through the bull-bear line from June 18th to June 24th, there are still opportunities for significant profits in swing trading with every new low. The ultimate low point this month may be around 44,000. Some people asked how much they should buy at the bottom to catch the rebound. I think this depends on the duration you want to hold. If you want to hold until next year, you only need to buy 10% of your position as a margin replenishment. If you want to make short-term profits, then you can go all in at this position and exit after a rebound of 10,000 points, and decide the next move later. Since this is considered catching the bottom, taking profits from the rebound is definitely okay. The key is that if you go all in, you must close all positions at the rebound of 8,000-10,000 points to ensure the safety of your capital and profits in the short to medium term. If you continue to be bullish and greedy during the rebound of 10,000 points, you may get trapped. When BTC reaches a new low again, you will have no ammunition left and cannot take any action. We must prevent this situation from happening.

This round of big cycles, whether it's a calf or a big bull, Spot's gameplay, I think it has to be changed, and you can't think about the first three rounds of big cycles, pinching more than ten times, dozens of times, and hundreds of times in one breath before exiting, this kind of gameplay is now too risky, and it's easy to lose the principal if you're not careful.

Every time it doubles, it rises by 25%. When the BTC market drops by more than 10,000 points in one fell swoop, go all in and continue to rise by 25% every time. From the second time onwards, sell 25% and no longer enter the market, holding onto the cash tightly. Keep selling 25% until it is completely sold. This is the safest way to play Spot. It's difficult to expect tens or hundreds of times gains now. After the epidemic, the global environment has changed. The middle class has been squeezed, the lower class is returning to poverty, and there is a general lack of money. Unlike before 2020, although the world economy was slowing down, it was still rising. No matter how the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it can no longer change the overall downward trend of the economy in the post-epidemic era. Money is always concentrated in the hands of the wealthy and financial institutions. When they push it up, retail investors who can't keep up become suckers under their scythe. Running in batches is the only way to effectively preserve strength. It's easy to lose everything by trying to get rich quickly. No matter how you play, at least don't let unrealized gains turn into losses.

Taking history as a mirror, we can see the rise and fall. Reviewing the last Halving cycle, what can you glimpse from this Halving cycle?

The last bull run: from December 2018 to January 2020, BTC surged from around 3650 to a high of 10540 in February 2020;

The first time the Federal Reserve cut interest rates was in July 2019, and it cut rates three times by 25 basis points in the second half of the year. BTC dropped from 10500 to 6400.

Last big bull: Around May 10, 2020, the bull market officially started, opening a one-sided pump trend with 9 consecutive monthly gains, and reaching a high point of 64,000 in April of the following year. In November of the second half of the year, it reached the second peak of the double-top bull structure at 69,000.

Summary: February-March 2020: a rapid drop from 10540 down to 3620, almost giving back all the profits from the past year's bull market. The starting point of the small bull market and the big bull market is basically the same.

After 'catch the bottom' next week, the peak of this Rebound is locked in at 58500-58800, which is a pump space of ten thousand points. It will be very difficult to continue to go up.

Then pull back again, challenging the new low of 44600-42600, this 7-wave decline will be completed.

When it pierced 49000 on 8.5, I locked in the peak range of 62300-65000 on 8.6, and it has been validated on 8.26.

In this bull run, I bought BTC from 17000 to 72000, and SOL from 13 to 206, content. Next week, I will long the contract at the bottom, wait for a rebound of BTC by several thousand points, and then close all positions of the remaining altcoins in the spot market. Before the next bull run, I will still wait to buy BTC below 30,000 and 20,000. I firmly believe that there will be such opportunities again!

I have to pour some cold water, in the medium term, actually this year's Bull Market has completely ended. The current pullback may have only covered one-third of the entire downtrend space. The monthly MACD of BTC may form a death cross before the next month, and it is important to understand what this means. ETH had already formed a death cross on the monthly chart before 8.5, so it is likely to fall to 1600 or below in the coming months.

Next week, prepare to catch the bottom. This 'bottom' is short-term, targeting a brief pause in the short-term since 8.26, possibly rebounding by 8-10k points at most, then continuing to pull back to a new low. Even if there is a 50 basis point rate cut on 9.18, any short-term price increase is just temporary and cannot reverse the overall trend. Many people are still focusing on the rate cut, but the rate cut is just point shaving, implying that a major market trend is coming? It's not that simple. It is suggested to lower expectations for the second half of the year, make some steady gains in the short to medium term, and be cautious about long-term uncertainty. In the market, everyone is shouting about 100,000 or 150,000, if it happens, great. If not, what will you do? Actually, there is no need to worry about missing out on the spot market. It's just a matter of more or less profit. It's better to engage in swing trading and be satisfied with a profit of 10,000 points each time. Deliberately pursuing a rise to 100,000 or 150,000 and closing all positions at once, the longer the cycle, the greater the risk. If it doesn't happen, you might lose your principal. In the last bull market, it took 9 months after the first rate cut for the bull market to come. Before that, it pulled back from 12,000 to 3800, almost completely erasing the rise of the previous small bull market. It's the same now. Trends never deceive, only candlesticks do. Candlesticks are dynamic indicators that run 24 hours a day, every minute and every second, fluctuating up and down to deceive. However, the bottom pattern at medium and large time frames objectively exists and cannot deceive people.

In the second half of the year, Spot will not make much money. If you only do short-term medium-term swing trading, you may make some profit. If it's long-term, there may be a significant floating loss. Whether you make money or not depends on next year. Before the next Bull Market comes, there will definitely be an extreme low point.

btc: Yesterday morning, it was mentioned that 56000 was a brief pause, belonging to a downward Relay. When it strongly falls through here, the space below 6000 points will accelerate. Continue to hold short orders downwards. Gradually place low long positions, act quickly, and settle quickly, until near the bottom before attempting a new strategy.

Many people are still focusing on interest rate cuts, and point shaving may bring a big market. I want to pour cold water here. The fourth quarter of this year may not be like the one-sided pump in the fourth quarter of last year. At most, it will be an oscillating upward trend. Because on the monthly chart, there is a continuous downward trend, and a death cross above zero may form within two months (ETH has already formed in August in advance). Therefore, the general direction is to go to 45,000, 43,000, or even around 40,000. Because there is currently no strong support on the daily candlestick and weekly chart, we can only rely on the support of the 15-daily candlestick and the middle rail of the monthly chart.

When it reaches a low point, it is gradually moving away from 100,000, and many people are no longer sure whether they can reach 100,000. When you no longer hear many people shouting for 100,000 or 150,000, the market will start to quietly move towards 100,000. So, this low point is near the 45,000-40,000 vicinity of the monthly line's mid-track position.

Short orders were placed on ETH above 2400, and can be closed around 2112. Open a short position directly at 2406-2412, and hang 2442 and 2472 for filling the short position before going to bed. There is no significant support between 2300-2100, and the trend is constantly downward. Any rebound is just an opportunity to open a short position. As long as the bottom is not reached, the trend of shorts cannot be reversed.

Yesterday morning, eth plummeted to around 2306, which is a false break. The actual support is at 2360-2380. This is a weak support. Short positions can be entered between 2442-2512, take profit at 2380-2360-2336, and leave some remaining positions to buy at lower prices. If it falls below 2360, it may test 2300 again, and the new low may be around 2280 or 2222. If shorts increase, it may drop directly to 2112, 2082, or 2022. These levels should be considered in advance. ETH has previously dropped from 2450 to 2000 directly.

A long position can be taken at the innovative low below 2300. The overall trend is downward, and in principle, a long position should be taken for each rebound at a low point until the bottom is confirmed.

ETH dropped to 2306 yesterday, the support here is broken, it will be 2180, 2112. In the past, there have been cases of direct drop from 2450 to 2000 when shorts were strong. It basically has no bottom now. Where we judge the possible retracement and bottoming out now, all depends on historical references, including drawing lines and analyzing on the PC based on 0.618, 0.50, 0.382, which are all similar, all based on historical references.

It has to be said that the performance of ETH this year is very poor. It has had four consecutive declines on the monthly chart, and even a death cross, which has not happened even in the big Bear Market cycle of 2022, happened this year. Moreover, it's hard to find a high-quality coin that has such a poor performance of four consecutive declines on the monthly chart in a Bear Market. This is what is called 'ETH' in the market. I've been saying it's useless since June 18th, but you still don't believe it.

follow me, shout with me: eth is rubbish, sol is ETH!

Market Makers are all smart money, for example, you might have a long wick candle tonight, it will enter the market a day earlier last night, and then it will wait for an opportunity when the data is released. "Long Wick Candle", why there is a long wick candle from time to time, this phenomenon is the phenomenon of Market Maker's rapid entry and exit. If the market maker is normal to buy and sell, the frequency of peace, there is no long wick candle phenomenon, you see the Bull Market unilateral pump trend, the daily long wick candle is very rare, right? Generally, it accumulates once or twice a month. After all, Market Maker also wants to make money, and it is easy to Miss Out in the Bull Market if it enters and exits frequently every day. The Rebound on Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning was triggered by the Market Maker entering the market on Monday evening, and the long wick candle yesterday morning was triggered by the Market Maker's departure. On this day, Rebound reminded that it would be withdrawn at any time, so yesterday morning's long wick candle was not a surprise at all, and in the morning, "the long wick candle is getting closer and closer", it was pierced in less than half an hour.

Pay attention to these when trading on short-term.

After yesterday's long wick candle, the highest point of BTC rebound reached a high of 58200. After rushing to catch the high-speed rail after 4 o'clock in the afternoon, there was no more activity. Market makers entered the market in the second half of the night and pulled it to the upper rail of the 15-minute Bollinger Bands at 58500. By entering the market early, it may exit tonight to create a 'long wick candle'.

Today's intraday support is at 57300, and short orders with little average advantage can take profit and exit near 57300. There will be multiple data releases from the United States tonight, which may cause another plunge, but be prepared for both hands, fill the short position at a high point, and then set it at 58750-60000. The space below 56000 will still be visited.

In terms of the larger picture, the current trend is a monthly chart adjustment, and the short positions need a continuous rebound on the daily candlestick chart to trigger a reversal. However, at present, it is only a rebound on the hourly and minute chart when encountering support levels during the downward process. The eggs are unable to shake the stone, and the overall trend is still bearish. A rebound on a smaller scale cannot reverse the trend. And each time it approaches a support level below, it will buffer the rebound. The safest point to enter short positions after each rebound high is usually the middle track of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands within 12 hours after the small needle is pierced. Later, at 54600, 52600, etc., these levels will also buffer and rebound, and they are all good opportunities for long positions at low prices. Short positions can be taken in batches with a range of 1200-1800 points. I don't mention it doesn't mean it can't be done, otherwise it would be meaningless to mention it in advance. Taking long positions at low prices and catching the bottom is the strategy at the moment. Therefore, the current approach is mainly to go short and supplement with long positions at low prices.

Finally, it fell below 57000 and came to 55500 strongly, congratulations to those who held short orders and made big profits. Next, it will continue to fall unilaterally. The brief pause at 5.5-5.6k is only temporary. Some take-profit should continue to hold towards the direction of 50000-48800. Setting a stop loss near the cost price for the remaining positions can be worry-free. This big needle has been preparing since the 18th of last month.