Will There Be a Correction in Bitcoin in the Short Term? Analyst Reminded of 30% Drops - Coin Bulletin

Famous cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen warns investors that Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a significant price correction in January 2025.

Cowen, noting that Bitcoin has experienced its first year after the halving of the block reward, which occurs every four years, pointed out that there could be a double-digit correction in January based on historical data.

Cowen reminded that Bitcoin experienced significant corrections in January in the years following its previous halving. In 2021, Bitcoin experienced a 30% drop in January, and a similar situation occurred in 2017:

"In the last two halving years, there was a correction in January. There was a decline of about 30 percent in 2021 and again 30 percent in 2017. Such corrections have become a historical trend for Bitcoin in January."

Did the December Decline Bring Forward the January Correction?

Cowen noted that this year may have a different dynamic. Cowen, who said that Bitcoin had already experienced a correction of around 15 percent in December 2024, expressed that this decline could be a precursor to the expected correction in January.

"This year was a little different because Bitcoin already experienced a decline in December. In 2016 and 2020, while Bitcoin rose in December, there was a correction in January. However, this time, in December, Bitcoin lost value. Optimists may say that the correction expected in January was priced in front and therefore may have occurred in December."

Cowen stated that Bitcoin lost approximately 15% of its value in December 2024 and if this decline had reached 30%, the price could have dropped to the 20-week moving average of $77,712.

Historical Correlation with 10-Year Bond Yields

Cowen also associated the recent price movements of Bitcoin with the increase in the US 10-year bond yields. Cowen, who historically stated that Bitcoin has an inverse correlation with bond yields, emphasized that the 10-year bond interest rates are higher than ever at current levels: Please provide the text to be translated.

"The significant increase in 10-year bond yields in recent weeks may be a factor preventing Bitcoin from rising. We have never seen bond yields at these levels in the history of Bitcoin. This could be a reason explaining why Bitcoin cannot reach higher levels."