From presidential elections to aliens: Polymarket's top 10 hot topics for 2024 prediction platform

Although the Polymarket prediction platform was launched four years ago, it is not until 2024 that it truly captures the market's attention. The decentralized prediction market has accumulated a transaction volume of over 8 billion US dollars this year, becoming a hot topic of discussion. The most eye-catching prediction events include the US presidential election and many other novel topics. Here are The Block's top ten representative hot predictions for Polymarket in 2024.

Politics: 2024 presidential election prediction trading exceeds 3 billion US dollars

The 2024 US presidential election became the largest trading market on Polymarket. The main characters in the election are the Democratic Party's Hillary and the Republican Party's Trump, and the prediction market alone attracted over $3 billion in trading volume. This fully demonstrates the appeal of political topics in prediction platforms.

Bizarre Event: Will Trump Smoke Marijuana on His Podcast?

Polymarket users also predict some seemingly absurd events, such as whether Trump will smoke marijuana on Joe Rogan's podcast. After Trump appeared on the show on October 26, the result showed that he did not do so, and the trading volume of this prediction market was close to $200,000.

Music and Memes: Will He Jinyi Mention Brat?

Another prediction that attracted over $67,000 in trading volume is whether He Jinli will say the word 'Brat' before August. The word originates from the album of the British musician Charli XCX and has caused a sensation on social media. Although Charli mentioned 'Kamala IS brat' on Twitter, He Jinli herself has never mentioned it.

The truth about Satoshi Nakamoto: Will Musk be referred to as the creator of Bitcoin?

HBO's documentary "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" premiered in October, promising to reveal the identity of the creator of Bitcoin. Polymarket subsequently launched related prediction markets, attracting over 44 million dollars in trading volume. Although the documentary ultimately focused on early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd, it failed to provide concrete evidence, leading the outcome to be classified as "other/multiple candidates".

Person of the Year: Can AI be Time Magazine's Person of the Year?

In 2024, Polymarket users bet on whether artificial intelligence could be selected as the Time Magazine Person of the Year. The total trading volume exceeded $570,000. However, AI did not win this honor. The Person of the Year for 2023 was Taylor Swift, and it was once again awarded to Trump in 2024.

Crime prediction: Will the suspect's 'declaration' mention cryptocurrency?

In Maryland, USA, a murder suspect Luigi Mangione was arrested, and the 'manifesto' he carried became the focus of media attention. Polymarket users bet on whether the manifesto would mention 'cryptocurrency' or 'Bitcoin', with a total trading volume of $270,000, but so far, these terms have not appeared in the manifesto.

Will Trump mention 'tampons'?

Trump's remarks during the campaign have also become one of the topics for user predictions. Regarding whether Trump will mention 'tampons' in his speeches or interviews, multiple prediction markets have attracted bets totaling $138,000. In his campaign event in Pennsylvania, Trump did mention this word.

Number of Musk's tweets

Users are equally interested in Musk's tweets. For example, a market predicts whether he will publish more than 450 tweets within a week, attracting bets of over $1.1 million.

Is the earth flat?

Although most people know the earth is not flat, there are still related prediction markets on Polymarket, attracting a trading volume of over 1200 US dollars. The final result shows 'no,' but the existence of such topics is amusing.

Will Trump collaborate with internet celebrity Hawk tuah girl for podcast?

Hawk tuah girl, because of her humorous responses, became popular on the internet, and her podcast also invited many celebrities. However, Trump has not participated in her program, which has attracted over 43,000 dollars in transactions.

Do aliens exist?

Whether the prediction market about whether the United States will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life in 2024 will become a hot topic, with a total trading volume of up to $1.6 million. Although there is still no consensus at present, this topic continues to attract attention.

Polymarket bets on everything, nothing is surprising.

From politics to entertainment, Polymarket's prediction platform covers a wide range of topics. This not only reflects users' curiosity about future events but also demonstrates the influence of decentralized prediction markets in the internet age.

This article from presidential elections to aliens: Polymarket's top ten hot topics for 2024 first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.