This Week Review

From December 23rd to December 30th this week, the highest price of Bingtang oranges was near $99963, and the lowest was close to $92520, with a fluctuation range of about 8%. Observe the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip trading near 95000, there will be a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 60000-68000 about 1.76 million coins;
2. 90000-100000 about 1.97 million coins; • There is an 80% probability that it will not fall below 87,000-91,000 in the short term; • The probability of rising to 100000~105000 in the short term is 70%.

Important News Side

Economic News

1. According to Vanda Research data, Nvidia has attracted $29.8 billion in net inflows this year, surpassing Tesla to become the largest net inflow in the retail sector this year.

2. Economist Gregory Daco expressed that when the Federal Reserve reexamines its interest rate forecast in the spring of next year, it may present a more dovish view.

3. The initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending December 21st increased to 219,000, with the continued claims rising to 1.91 million. The number of repeated claims is gradually increasing, indicating a cooling job market, but it has not yet reached a level of concern for the Federal Reserve.

4. OpenAI CEO Altman wants to transform this non-profit organization-managed artificial intelligence development company into a for-profit company, and the biggest obstacle he faces is Microsoft, which has a significant influence in this process as it has committed to invest more than $13 billion in OpenAI.

5. If OpenAI fails to complete the transformation in the next two years, the recent investors can withdraw their funds, along with 9% interest, totaling about 72 billion dollars.

Cryptocurrency Ecosystem News

1. Strive Asset Management Company has applied to US regulatory agencies for approval to list an ETF that invests in convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other companies. The ETF aims to provide access to 'BTC Bonds', which are described as 'convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy or other companies'.

2. Santiment indicates that after a general decline in the Christmas market, whales have transferred stablecoins to the platform. Although this does not guarantee that whales will immediately use these stablecoins, it can be seen as a signal for the end of 2024.

3. Santiment indicates that historically, BTC usually reaches $110,000 when the public no longer expects it.

4. Morehead expressed that the price trend of BTC has always followed a four-year halving cycle, which leads to a decrease in supply. BTC usually experiences significant increases. According to historical trends, it is predicted that BTC will reach the peak of this cycle in August 2025, and the prospects are still promising.

5. Citigroup analysts predict that cryptocurrencies will see growth in 2025, driven by factors including Trump's policies, increased ETF inflows, and stablecoin innovations. The SEC members nominated by Trump and their supportive stance are shaping a more crypto-friendly market, and ETFs are opening doors for more institutional investors in the United States.

6. From 31 December 2024, Swiss banks and investment companies will start offering these new Bitcoin funds to their clients.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze the current stage we are in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face. Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of a certain direction and the occurrence of a certain event under certain conditions

Long-term Insights

• Chips are created and destroyed on-chain
• On-chain large amount transfer net head • Total spot selling pressure • Panic of Losses

During this period, the internal ecosystem has been relatively weak, with not many new chips added. The new capital here may be relatively weak.

The large amount transfer transaction display is gradually shifting from inflow to outflow.

After a period of adjustment and adaptation, the market finally has some willingness to buy among the major players.

Spot total selling pressure shows that the current on-chain selling pressure has dropped by half.

Although it is far from the previous low point, overall the pressure has started to decrease, and there has been no sustained pressure afterwards.

The panic of loss has occurred twice at this high level, and it is expected to happen one or two more times before the market can stabilize initially, or stabilize, .

It may take time to kill or be emotionally squeezed.

Mid-term Probe

• Long-term and short-term participants' position changes • ETH Exchange Circulation Ratio • Incremental model • Whale comprehensive scoring model
• Liquidity Supply

From this comprehensive data, it can be seen that long-term participants are slowly reducing their positions. There are signs of a slow increase in the positions of short-term participants, but the current pace has slowed down. The conclusion that can be drawn at the moment is that short-term participants still have room to take on positions, but their pace of increasing positions may slow down or decrease.

The proportion of ETH circulation in the exchange is still increasing, but the upward growth rate has slowed down. There may be a slow shift to risk aversion in the market, or a trend of narrowing risk exposure.

From the current situation, the market has returned to the previous state of being biased towards inventory. It is possible that, over time, inventory will be the current environmental tone until the increment stops rising.

The rating of Whale has been slowly declining recently, but it is still rated as 'medium' or above. Compared to the previous 'very high' rating, it has decreased.

Liquidity is slowly decreasing, and the market may currently be facing a state of liquidity contraction. This may limit the magnitude of fluctuations in the market and result in a more oscillating structure.

Short-term Observation

• Derivative Wind Risk Factor • Options Intentional Transaction Ratio
• Derivatives trading volume • Implied volatility of options • Profit and loss transfer volume • New address and active address • Gate.io Net Head • Gate.io net head • High selling pressure with high weight. • Global purchasing power status Stablecoin Exchange Net Head • Off-chain exchange data

Derivative Rating: The risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, and the derivative risk is moderate.

The wind risk coefficient is still in the neutral zone, and it came close to touching the green zone last week in the short term. Being in the neutral zone means that there is plenty of room left regardless of which direction the market moves towards.

The put option ratio is at a medium to high level, and the trading volume is at a moderate level.

Waiting for the next wave of volatility in the derivatives market.

There is no significant change in the implied volatility of options.

Emotional State Rating: Neutral

There was no panic selling last week, and this week we will still focus on whether there will be panic selling behavior (orange line).

New and active addresses are in the middle.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC is in a state of large outflow accumulation, while ETH is in a state of small outflow accumulation overall.

BTC exchange continues to experience sustained large outflows of net positions.

ETH small outflow overall.

There is a small amount of high-weight selling pressure on BTC.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of outflow, and stablecoin purchasing power is consistent with last week.

Global purchasing power is in a state of erosion.

Stablecoin purchases remained flat compared to last week

Off-chain transaction data rating: there is a buying interest at 90000; there is a selling interest at 100000.

There is a willingness to buy at the price range of 85,000 to 90,000.

There is a willingness to sell around the 100,000 price level.

Willing to buy at the price range of 85000~95000; There is a willingness to sell around the 100000 price.

There is a willingness to buy in the price range of 85000~90000;

There is a willingness to sell around the price of 100,000.

Weekly Summary:

Summary of the message interface:

During the holiday period, the liquidity is reduced and the market changes slightly, which is relatively light. In the first quarter of 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024, the market has experienced a strong rebound and is now approaching the first quarter of 2025. Remain relatively optimistic about the future.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

1. Insufficient new capital, or relatively less;
2. Whales and Gate.io have slowly transitioned from selling to initial buying interest;
3. The selling pressure of spot goods did not continue to rise, but decreased significantly compared to before;
4. The market may need time to wear out or be squeezed by emotions several times.

• Market Tone: Adjustments and fixes.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration:

1. Long-term participants slowly reduce their positions, while short-term participants' buying speed has slowed down;
2. The circulation ratio of ETH in the exchange has a slow tendency towards safe-haven; (which may increase the difficulty of narrating small currencies)
3. If the incremental speed continues to slow down, the market may return to a stock pace;
4. The whale rating has been slightly lowered, but still has a rating of "average" or above;
5. When liquidity tightens, the on-site fluctuations may be limited and more biased towards oscillation rather than trend.

• Market Tone: Stock, slowdown From the current situation, the on-site liquidity has tightened and may return to stock in a slower pace.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The wind risk coefficient is in the neutral area, and the wind risk is moderate.
2. The newly added active address is relatively in the median position.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of BTC on the exchange is in a state of large outflow, while ETH is in a state of small outflow.
5. The global purchasing power is in a state of erosion, and the purchasing power of stablecoins is stable compared to last week.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at 90000; and a willingness to sell at 100000.
7. The probability of not falling below 87000〜91000 in the short term is 80%; the probability of not rising above 100000~105000 in the short term is 70%.

• Market Tone: Looking at the chip chart, there are quite a lot of "diamond hands" in the market.

The short-term market conditions and expectations are consistent with last week. If there is no panic selling, the current price will fluctuate, and if there is panic selling, pay attention to the short-term holders' cost line near 86K. If the position is relatively low, this period is a relatively good opportunity to get on board.

Risk Warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional views on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.