"'United Healthcare Gunshot Murder Case' Becomes a Betting Market! Kalshi and Polymarket Prediction Contracts Spark Controversy, CFTC Regulatory Challenges Continue"

Gambling is part of human nature, everything can be gambled on, even murder cases. Kalshi, a predictive market platform, launched a controversial gambling contract on the United States' joint health insurance murder case, which immediately caught the attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and triggered an investigation. The contract was forced to be halted just two days after its launch.

"Murder betting" was forced to stop just two days after it started.

The largest health insurance company in the United States, UnitedHealthcare, was executed in a shooting execution on 12/5 on the streets of New York. The US police immediately launched a large-scale search and arrested the 26-year-old suspect, Luigi Mangione. The prosecution accused Mangione of committing the crime out of disgust for the US healthcare insurance industry. Currently, Mangione is charged with murder by the prosecution.

According to Bloomberg, a week after the murder, the prediction market platform Kalshi launched prediction contracts related to the case, allowing users to bet on whether the suspect Mangione will be extradited, act alone, plead guilty or be convicted.

Kalshi's 'murder market' launched just two days ago has been scrutinized by regulatory authorities and forced to halt. At present, neither Kalshi nor the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has responded to the matter. However, according to CFTC regulations, any contract trading related to crime and not in the public interest is prohibited from listing.

Kalshi has launched a joint health insurance suspect gambling contract. The trading market 'only left gambling', which may affect the Mangione verdict.

Although special "prediction contracts" like this have attracted a lot of attention, they have also sparked market criticism and moral controversy. Some netizens have said that this is beyond the scope of hedging risks and is purely gambling. There are also experts who say: "Now someone is cold-blooded enough to bet on whether a suspect in a life-or-death case will plead guilty or not? This is really exaggerated, and it is clear that the market is indifferent to human nature and morality."

Although Kalshi is currently shut down, another prediction market platform, Polymarket, is still trading related contracts. What is more worrying is that Mangione's lawyer is concerned that these public contracts will further impact the judgment result.

There are still prediction contracts for Mangione on Polymarket. The rapid listing and lack of review time pose continuous regulatory challenges for the CFTC

Currently, the CFTC is in an awkward situation. Now, exchanges can quickly list new products as long as they self-certify, and the CFTC only has one day to review, which allows many controversial contracts to be listed first. Although the CFTC has the power to halt trading, these contracts are actually in a temporary legal gray area during the review period.

The key to such issues is actually the US court's ruling in October that Kalshi can continue to provide election-related contract trading, opening the door to the prediction contract market. Balancing market freedom and ethical standards is a difficult problem that the CFTC must face.

(Will it affect Polymarket? CFTC appeals Kalshi's decision on prediction market, pursuing concerns of election market manipulation)

Market and legal new battleground, where will the future of predictive contracts go?

As early as 30 years ago, the UK had a precedent for betting on the O.J. Simpson case, but many operators chose not to follow suit due to ethical considerations. However, the 'prediction contract' market continues to expand with the emergence of new exchanges, with platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers also launching election-related trading contracts.

The outside world believes that if the CFTC fails to establish clear regulations in a timely manner, there may be an increasing number of similar 'murder markets' predictive contracts in the future, possibly even becoming a norm in the market. Brian Quintenz, the crypto policy lead at a16z and a board member of Kalshi, has accepted an interview for the CFTC chair by the CFTC of the incoming President Trump team. Whether Quintenz will take office or not still attracts attention from the outside world, which may affect the future regulatory direction of the CFTC.

(a16z Cryptocurrency Policy Director Quintenz was invited to interview with Trump CFTC Chairman, his background as a former Republican CFTC Commissioner was favored)

This article 'UnitedHealth Insurance Shooting Case' becomes a gambling pool! Kalshi, Polymarket prediction contracts provoke controversy, CFTC regulation challenges continue, first appeared in Chain News ABMedia.