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Market Fluctuation. There are always people questioning whether the Bull Market has ended or reached its peak. Today, I will share my views from several perspectives:
[Technical Form] Based on the judgment of the overall trend, the weekly chart structure has not yet shown a top pattern of the Bull Market. Since the rise from 25,000 in September 23rd, the cryptocurrency has followed a five-wave upward structure and is currently in a fourth-wave correction. After completing this consolidation phase, there will be a final fifth wave upwards.
【Historical Trend】Although history does not repeat itself, it often shows astonishing similarities. In the year following the previous three halvings, the cryptocurrency has experienced a significant increase in value.
【Macro view】The important narrative of this Bull Market is the U.S. presidential election. Trump's election will undoubtedly play a role in promoting this Bull Market, regardless of his purpose, whether he uses Bitcoin and U.S. debt, or attracts sponsorship from the crypto capital, or uses the crypto market to lay out a big chess game to enjoy the feast alone, it will not end this Bull Market soon after he takes office. I believe that the combination of Trump, Wans, and Musk will push the crypto market to a high level in the next 8-10 years.
[Funding] The 100,000 mark has become a consensus pressure point in the market. Although some long-term holders have taken profits and some miners have sold, they cannot stop the continuous buying action of the main funds. At first, they built up large positions in BTC at 30,000, continued to buy at 60,000, and are still increasing their holdings at 90,000 and 100,000. The move of the BTC ETF surpassing the gold ETF undoubtedly reflects the expectation of the main capital for the future market. Remember, they are the top global capital and will not be foolish enough to chase high and buy on dips.
【Summary】In summary, judging from multiple dimensions, the Bull Market has not ended. Since returning to gate in February this year, there have been numerous public announcements of the target prices for Bitcoin this year, starting at 82500/100500. Initially, many people doubted and felt it was a joke. However, the facts speak for themselves. This round of Bull Market is completely different from the past, with global capital intervention and political intervention, which will surely help the Bull Market move forward. It is too early to talk about a bear market now. What needs to be done next is to take advantage of the weekly four-wave adjustment period, and to lay out low-priced chips at low points. The season of spring blossoms next year will be the time of harvest.