QCP: It is expected that the Fed meeting tonight will be slightly hawkish, and the market will welcome a large-scale liquidity adjustment.

On December 18, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that the last FOMC meeting of 2024 will be held tonight. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this meeting and announce this year's final dot plot. We expect tonight's statement and dot plot to have a slightly hawkish tone, reflecting that U.S. inflation is stable above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market is strong. The statement is expected to maintain an ambiguous attitude towards the rate cut path in 2025, emphasizing the difficulty of accelerating rate cuts. At the same time, the dot plot is expected to imply three rate cuts in 2025. Although we do not expect the FOMC meeting to have a major impact, liquidity in all markets has been slowly declining. This may lead to fluctuations, potentially triggering large-scale liquidation. The technical outlook for BTC also appears cautious and shows bearish divergence. If there is a decline, do not shake your position. 2025 may be a potential bull year for crypto assets, especially in the scenario of Trump taking office, persisting may prove beneficial.