AI Weekly Hotspot Report (11.29 - 12.06)

You are reading the weekly industry hot report generated by the Gate AI Lab for you. Check out the most worth-following market trends and important events from last week, and we recommend investment analysis and financial strategies for you.

Word count: 8496 words | Reading time 11.5 minutes.

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total market capitalization of Digital Money reached $3.57T, a rise of 0.1% compared to the previous week. The exchange volume rose by 30.98% to $371.97B. BTC dominance decreased by 0.59% to 53.98% compared to the previous trading day. The overall market is showing a small pump trend, with increased trading activity. BTC encountered resistance at the $100,000 mark and may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

According to the fear and greed index of gate, today's market sentiment is "greed", with an index of 72. Compared with yesterday's "extreme greed", it has fallen slightly, but the overall market sentiment is still high.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 10pm UTC+8, Dec 06

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing down, and inflationary pressures persist. The euro area's November CPI increased by 10.00% pump year-on-year, higher than the expected 9.60%, reaching a new high. The US's November CPI increased by 7.10% pump year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 7.70%, but still higher than the expected 7.30%. The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed in December is 70.10%, while the probability of maintaining the Intrerest Rate unchanged is 29.90%. The market expects the Fed to continue raising interest rates in January 2025.

Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) interact with each other. In November, the year-on-year PPI in the Eurozone rose by 27.10%, higher than the previous value of 34.50%, but still at a high level. In the United States, the year-on-year PPI in November increased by 7.40%, lower than the previous value of 8.10%, indicating some easing of inflationary pressure.

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of the macro economy. The final value of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI in November was 47.10, lower than the initial value of 47.30, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in November was 47.70, higher than the initial value of 47.60, but still in the contraction zone. The PMI data for the service sector is relatively better, indicating that the economic slowdown is mainly concentrated in the manufacturing sector.

Overall, although inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, they are still at high levels. There are clear signs of economic slowdown, with weak manufacturing sector dragging down overall economic performance. Against this backdrop, the Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates to tackle inflation, which may further suppress economic activity and exert some pressure on the Cryptocurrency market.

1.3 Financial Calendar

Analysis:

The November CPI annual rate and PPI annual rate data in China reflect domestic inflation and industrial product PA, which is important for judging the economic operation.
The wholesale sales rate in the United States in October and China's trade account data in November reflect the demand and external trade situation of the two economies, which is crucial for judging the rise economic prospects.
The annual rate of US CPI in November is an important indicator of the level of inflation and will affect the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve. The monthly rate of core CPI is also a key follow.
The interest rate decision of the European Central Bank in the euro zone will directly affect the monetary policy stance of the euro zone and have a significant impact on the financial markets.
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States is an important data point for assessing the employment market conditions, and employment is a crucial factor affecting the economy.

2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Fluctuation

2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis

BTC Weekly Volatility: The weekly volatility of BTC this week is 2.34%. This value is calculated based on the standard deviation of the daily closing price within a week.

BTC prices this week showed a trend of rising and then falling. At the beginning of the week, BTC price was around $97,000, and then broke through the $100,000 mark on Wednesday, reaching a high of $104,054.30. However, a pullback began on Thursday, and the Closing Price on Friday was $97,392.10, with a weekly increase of 0.40%.

The price pump is mainly driven by the expectation that the Trump administration will create a more favorable regulatory environment for Cryptocurrency. The launch of Stable Coin USDT has also released liquidity and changed the dynamics of Cryptocurrency trading.

Volume Changes: The overall volume of BTC showed an upward trend followed by a drop this week. When BTC broke the $100,000 mark on Wednesday, the volume reached 21,504,600. However, on Thursday, the volume dropped sharply to 20,362,800. An increase in volume often indicates an intensified price fluctuation, while a decrease in volume may suggest a drop in fluctuation.

Market Activity: According to the active address data, BTC market activity has decreased this week. The highest number of active addresses was on Wednesday, reaching 6.7 million; however, on Thursday and Friday, the number of active addresses was around 3.3 million. The decrease in the number of active addresses may indicate that market enthusiasm is starting to cool off.

Potential price direction: Based on the analysis of volume and active Address data, analysts believe that BTC may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. If volume and activity further decline, the BTC price may oscillate within the current range. However, if there is Favourable Information, it is expected to reopen the upward channel.

2.2. Fund Analysis

According to the fund flow data, BTC (BTC) and ETH (ETH) as the leaders of the Crypto Assets market, continue to attract a large amount of fund inflow. BTC has attracted a net inflow of funds exceeding $1 billion in the past week, showing the favor of institutional investors for its value reserve.

Ether Square also saw a net inflow of nearly $500 million in the past week. With the continuous expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem and the rise of applications such as Decentralized Finance, Ether Square continues to attract funds. This influx of funds may further pump the price of Ether Square.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Render Token (RENDER), as well as other popular alts, have also seen a large influx of funds. This indicates that retail investors are seeking higher investment returns. However, at the same time, a large amount of funds are also flowing out, reflecting the high-risk nature of these alts.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is highly active. Both institutional and retail investors are actively participating. Fund flow data shows that investors still have confidence in major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, while there is also a pursuit of high-risk, high-return altcoins.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

BTC Smart Money Analysis According to the data, BTC has recently seen a large influx of institutional funds. This indicates that institutional investors are optimistic about the long-term prospects of BTC. The increase in large orders and Trading Volume means that long positions are continuously accumulating. Therefore, it is expected that BTC will face significant selling pressure in the short term.

ETH Smart Money Analysis Unlike BTC, the recent large transaction volume of ETH has decreased, indicating a cooling of institutional investors' enthusiasm for ETH. However, overall, the large transaction volume of ETH is still at a relatively high level. Therefore, it is expected that ETH will face some selling pressure in the short term, but the support strength is still relatively strong.

Summary Overall, both BTC and ETH are facing some selling pressure. However, the selling pressure on BTC may be more apparent, while the support for ETH is stronger. Investors need to closely follow the market capital flow and proceed with caution.

3. Hot Topics

According to the data provided, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is the BTC breaking through the $100,000 mark. Here is the relevant special report:

Bitcoin surges to $100,000! Is a new era of Crypto Assets coming?

Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, sparking market frenzy

BTC broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time on December 4, 2024, triggering a frenzy among global investors. According to CoinMarketCap data, BTC reached a peak price of $103,232 with a total market capitalization of $20.39 trillion, making it the seventh-largest asset in the world. This historic milestone not only solidifies BTC's status as "digital gold", but also marks the beginning of a new era for cryptocurrency.

Analyst Arnoud Star Busmann said, "It is not surprising that Bitcoin has a big pump above $100,000, especially considering the Trump administration is expected to create a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrency." He added that the launch of Stable Coin USDT has changed the dynamics of cryptocurrency trading and released a large amount of liquidity.

Institutional funds pouring in, bright future for BTC

In addition to the favorable regulatory environment, the significant inflow of institutional funds is also a key factor driving the surge in BTC prices. Data shows that in the past month, 9 ETH Square ETFs collectively increased their holdings by 362,474 ETH, a whopping 4,363% rise compared to the previous period.

Youhodler's Market Director Ruslan Lienkha believes that BTC is ultimately expected to break the $150,000 mark. He said, "To keep the price below $100,000, significant market changes would be needed, such as an increase in bearish sentiment in the stock market, which is an unlikely scenario."

Is Altcoin Season Coming? MEME Coin Sparks Market Follow

The surge of BTC also drove the pump of other Crypto Assets. Data shows that the search popularity of "altcoins" in Google Trends is approaching a peak level of nearly 100. The AltCoin Season Index on CoinMarketCap rose to 89 on Wednesday, indicating an increase in the market share of AltCoin relative to BTC.

It is worth following that, the memes coin Pepe, after being listed on .US and stamp trading pairs, saw a big pump in price. Analysts believe that Pepe, as a well-known internet memes, has strong community influence and speculation potential, and may experience a big pump trend similar to Dogecoin and Shiba Inu.

In general, BTC breaking through the $100,000 mark signifies a new stage for the cryptocurrency market. In the future, clear regulatory policies, continuous influx of institutional funds, and constant emergence of innovative technologies will all contribute to the sustained prosperity and development of the cryptocurrency market.

4. Main Events

Here are the top 15 events that have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the past seven days:

BTC breaks $100,000 On December 5th, 2024, Bitcoin broke through the $100,000 mark for the first time, sparking discussions about its long-term potential. Bitcoin's market capitalization is only slightly lower than that of Google, at $2.143 trillion, and its rising trajectory reflects increasing investor confidence and adoption rates. Analysts believe that this achievement is a signal of the maturing Cryptocurrency market.

Curve annual income surged In the past 30 days, Curve has generated an annualized revenue of nearly $37 million, a rise of nearly 23% compared to last month. The official statement attributes this to the increase in leveraged financing demand and the launch of the new savings pool and scrvUSD token, which is consistent with the optimistic market sentiment after the US election.

Solana network stress test On December 6, 2024, the co-founder of Solana stated that the rise of memecoins has put pressure on the Solana network, making it more resilient and robust. The popularity of memecoins is not surprising, as entertainment has always been a major area for making money in the digital economy.

xAI raised 60 billion US dollars SEC documents show that xAI, a company owned by Elon Musk, has raised approximately $6 billion through equity financing.

Large net outflow of GBTC According to reports, GBTC had a net outflow of $148.7 million yesterday on 2024-12-06.

The Fed may cut rates by 25 basis points According to reports, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current Interest Rate in December 2024 is 29.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 70.1%.

Base network volume reaches all-time high On December 6, 2024, the daily volume of the Base network reached 8.8 million transactions, reaching a new historical high. The Total Value Locked of Base is $3.6 billion, with a net inflow of $227 million in the past seven days, surpassing Solana's $71 million in the same period.

Cathie Wood optimistic about BTC 2024-12-05 ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that the newly appointed SEC Chairman will protect the private property rights of digital assets, while Fed Chairman Powell described BTC as a virtual digital version of gold. ARK Invest believes that the significance of BTC far exceeds that of gold.

Forgive Me Father Online Gate.io will launch the Forgive Me Father (PURGE) cryptocurrency trading on its trading platform at 19:00 on December 6, 2024. This Token is trained using AI technology and aims to redefine the concepts of morality, guilt, and redemption.

Movement Network launched Gate.io will list Movement Network (MOVE) for trading at 20:00 on December 9, 2024. Movement Network is a blockchain ecosystem based on modular Move, aiming to build secure, high-performance, and interoperable blockchain applications.

Crypto Panda intends to conduct business in Hong Kong On December 5, 2024, Hong Kong-listed company Qiaoxiong International announced in a statement that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with Crypto Panda operator to develop Hong Kong cryptocurrency-related business.

ETH Test Upper Triangle Boundary Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research released a report on December 5, 2024, stating that ETH is currently testing the upper boundary of a large triangle formation. If the breakthrough is successful, the price is expected to first reach the 2024 high of $4,092 and may further challenge the historical high of $4,812.

Mantle TVL hits a new high On December 5, 2024, Mantle announced on X that Mantle TVL has surpassed $2.16 billion, reaching a new all-time high. In addition, mETH Protocol TVL has exceeded $1.72 billion, and Ignition (FBTC) has a TVL of over $1.17 billion, triggering bullish sentiment among investors.

TRX price increase may be influenced by South Korea On 2024-12-04, analysts pointed out that TRX pumped by about 80% in the past day, partially due to recent political turmoil in South Korea. TRX, as a commonly used transfer Token across exchanges, is widely used in the South Korean market.

DePIN Satellite Project Launch The Spacecoin project of the DePIN plans to use blockchain technology to support LEO nanosatellites to build a decentralized physical infrastructure network, realizing trustless connections for the global internet. The project has confirmed the launch of the first satellite, CTC-0, on December 21, 2024.

5. Global Policies

The following is a list of new political developments, economic policies or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market, according to the news from November 29 to December 6, 2024.

1. US President-elect Trump nominates Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman

News: Trump confirms Paul Atkins has been selected as the new chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Impact analysis: Atkins is seen as a supporter of Crypto Assets, and if appointed, is expected to push the SEC to adopt a more friendly regulatory policy, which is beneficial to the development of the Crypto Assets industry. This may boost market confidence and drive up the prices of mainstream Crypto Assets such as BTC.

2. South Korean President Moon Jae-in faces impeachment

News: The opposition party in South Korea reported to the full meeting of the National Assembly on the motion to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol, and the impeachment is expected to be voted on the 7th.
Impact Analysis: South Korea is one of the most active Cryptocurrency markets in the world. Political turmoil may affect investor sentiment, leading to capital outflows or seeking safer haven assets. This may cause certain impacts on the South Korean Cryptocurrency market.

3. Fed Chairman Powell said BTC is more like a speculative asset

News: Powell said that BTC is more like a speculative asset, similar to gold, not a competitor to the US dollar.
Impact analysis: Powell's remarks have raised concerns about the outlook for BTC in the market, which may exert some pressure on the price of BTC in the short term. But he also acknowledged that BTC has "durability," indicating that the Fed holds an open attitude towards cryptocurrency.

4. The new CFTC chairman is expected to suspend enforcement actions and establish new rules

News: Caroline D. Pham, one of the candidates for the new chairman of the CFTC, stated that it is a concern to suspend enforcement actions by the CFTC during the Biden era and will use that power to set the agenda and establish new rules under the new leadership.
Impact Analysis: If the new CFTC chairman suspends enforcement actions and formulates new rules, it may bring a clearer and more friendly regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry.

Summary:

During the period from November 29th to December 6th, 2024, the political dynamics of countries such as the United States and South Korea, as well as the policies of institutions such as the Federal Reserve, SEC, and CFTC, have had a certain impact on the cryptocurrency industry. In general, the Trump administration is expected to push for more friendly regulatory policies, while political turmoil in South Korea may have an impact on the local cryptocurrency market. The comments of the Federal Reserve Chairman have raised concerns about the future of Bitcoin, but also expressed an open attitude. The newly appointed CFTC Chairman is expected to suspend enforcement and formulate new rules, which may bring a more clear regulatory environment to the industry.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendation

Market trends show that Bitcoin has broken through the $100,000 mark, triggering a new bull market in the cryptocurrency market. Trump's election as President of the United States is expected to bring favorable information policies to the cryptocurrency market. In addition, the continued focus on artificial intelligence and institutional investors has also driven the market's pump trend.

Please note that these recommendations are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, so decisions should be made carefully.

6.2 Investment Strategies

This week's hot TokenTechnical Analysis

BTC breaks through the $100,000 mark, hitting a historic high with a market capitalization of 17.97% of gold, highlighting its growing influence in the financial ecosystem. The pump trajectory of BTC reflects the increasing confidence and adoption by investors. Ethereum's market capitalization surpasses Vanguard Group, ranking 29th in the world asset market capitalization, and the ETH price breaks through $3,900.00. Ripple's price has pumped 415.80% in a month, reaching $2.61, and its rapid technology is widely recognized. The Cardano ecosystem continues to expand, and developers and users have confidence in its secure and decentralized blockchain.

Quantitative Strategy Summary of This Week

Contract grid strategy performs well in high Fluctuation markets, but the risk is also high. Spot Martingale is suitable for medium Fluctuation markets. The intelligent rebalancing strategy has relatively low risk. Overall, this week's quantitative strategy presents a pattern of high risk and high return, as well as low risk and low return coexisting.

Quantitative Strategy Summary

6.3. Financial Wealth Management Products

Simple Earn

Simple Earn helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After subscribing to Simple Earn, the system will determine whether the loan is successful and the Interest Rate for each hour based on the user's set lending Interest Rate and actual borrowing needs.

Simple Earn supports users to customize the Interest Rate. Users can set the minimum lending Interest Rate when subscribing. After the successful lending is determined at the whole point, the income will be calculated according to the determined Interest Rate. Simple Earn supports flexible deposit and withdrawal, and 24/7 subscription and redemption are available.

The total amount of USDT in Yuebi Bao is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated Annual Percentage Rate of 16.65%+8.87%.

Financial Management Treasure

The Wealth Management Treasure is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io, which includes current, fixed-term, and other financial solutions, providing users with hundreds of types of Digital Money financial products.

Structured Financial Management

Gate.io structured financial management is a new type of financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as Options. Generally, the performance of the underlying asset and the designated reference price during the investment period are used to determine the level of Settlement yield. It can be divided into two types: principal-protected and aggressive.

4.市场Intrerest Rate

Note:

TradFi is the financing interest rate of the TradFi market.
CeFi is the funding Intrerest Rate range of centralized Cryptocurrency financial platforms.
DeFi is the financing Interest Rate scope of Decentralization finance platform.
The above data is for reference only, and the actual Interest Rate may vary.

Disclaimer: The data and analysis in this report are purely personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, so please be cautious when entering the market.

6.4. Technical Analysis

Bollinger Bands is a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This article will conduct a backtest analysis of ETH based on Bollinger Bands.

Trading Strategy

When the price of ETH approaches or breaks above the upper band, take a sell action, Position is 20%.
When the price of ETH approaches or breaks through the lower rail, make a purchase action, Position is 20%.
The initial principal is 100,000.00 USDT.

Backtest Result

Backtest time range: January 1, 2016 to December 5, 2024
Final Yield: +178.92%
Maximum Drawdown: -32.17%
Annualized Volatility: 63.45%
Annual Percentage Rate：+12.36%
Total number of transactions: 326 times
Profitable trading times: 172 times
Number of losing trades: 154 times

Data Analysis

Based on the backtest results, the Bollinger Band trading strategy has achieved decent positive returns in the long run. The maximum drawdown rate is -32.17%, which is within an acceptable range. The annualized Volatility is high at 63.45%, reflecting the high volatility of the Crypto Assets market.

The advantage of this strategy is simple operation and flexible settings. By adjusting the parameters of the Bollinger Bands and the position ratio, the risk exposure can be controlled. In addition, the Bollinger Bands can capture the Overbought/Oversold signals of the price well.

The disadvantage is that there are potential false signals, resulting in a certain proportion of loss-making trades. In addition, this strategy cannot completely avoid the impact of extreme market conditions and may suffer significant losses during severe fluctuations.

In general, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy is an optional trading method for medium to long-term investors, but it requires adjusting parameters according to personal risk preferences and combining with other analytical tools to achieve better operational results.