AI Weekly Hotspot Report (11.22 - 11.29)

You are reading the weekly industry hotspot report generated for you by the gate AI Lab. Take a look at the market trends and important events worth following last week, and we will recommend investment analysis and financial strategies for you.

Word count: 8479 characters | Reading time 11.5 minutes.

1. Market Trends

1.1. Market Sentiment

This week, the total Market Cap of Digital Money reached $3.31T, a decrease of 0.79% compared to the previous period. The exchange volume decreased by 22.76% compared to the previous period, reaching $154.73B. BTC dominance is at 57.05%, a pump of 0.02% from the previous trading day. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with BTC price consolidating around $95,000, and is expected to break through the $100,000 mark in the short term.

Today's fear and greed index is 78, indicating extreme greed in the market. This suggests that investor sentiment is overly optimistic and the market may be overbought, so caution should be exercised regarding the risk of a pullback.

Crypto & Tradition Overview as of 12am UTC+8, Nov 29

1.2. Macroeconomic Impact

Recent data shows that the pace of global economic recovery is slowing down, and inflationary pressures are persisting. The US October PCE Price Index rose by 2.30% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.20%, while the core PCE rose by 2.80% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The Eurozone's November CPI preliminary reading increased by 10.00% year-on-year, higher than the expected 9.60%, reaching a new high. Germany's November CPI preliminary reading was 0.80% month-on-month, higher than the expected 0.70%. These data indicate that inflationary pressures persist, and the Central Bank may continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in November was 47.70, lower than the expected 47.90, and it has been in the contraction zone for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing. The final value of the service industry PMI was 46.10, lower than the expected 47.80, and the lowest level since May 2009, reflecting weak economic activity. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November was 47.30, and the service industry PMI was 48.60, both lower than the expansion zone of 50.

Analysts expect that due to high inflation and tight job market, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points in December, with the Intrerest Rate range reaching 4.25%-4.50%. The European Central Bank may also raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.50% in December. The Central Bank's rate hikes dampen demand and may further drag down economic growth.

Overall, the high inflation and economic slowdown create certain pressure on the Cryptocurrency market. However, as a new type of asset, Cryptocurrency may also benefit from the turmoil in the TradFi market.

1.3 Financial Calendar

Analysis and summary:

This week, the focus will be on following the US November nonfarm payroll data and unemployment rate. Nonfarm payroll data is an important indicator of the employment market, and it is expected that the number of new jobs will rebound significantly to 200,000, and the unemployment rate will also rise slightly to 4.2%. In addition, the US October trade deficit is expected to narrow to $75 billion, indicating an improvement in foreign trade conditions. Manufacturing and service PMI data will reflect economic momentum and are worth following. Overall, the economic data released this week will provide important references for the Fed's interest rate hike decision in December.

2. Analysis of Fund Situation and Price Fluctuation

2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis

BTC weekly Volatility
Based on the daily Closing Price of BTC in the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 2.37%.

Price fluctuations and reasons This week, the price of BTC fluctuated around $95,000. The price pump is mainly driven by the following factors: Marathon Digital, a BTC miner, significantly increased its holdings of BTC; the regulatory environment is improving, and the US government is expected to relax regulation on cryptocurrency; institutional investors have a stronger willingness to get on board.

Volume Changes The average daily volume of BTC rose by 15.8% this week compared to last week, reaching $11.27 billion. The increase in trading activity reflects the strengthening of market confidence, which is conducive to further pump in prices. But at the same time, it also means that Volatility may expand.

Market activity and price direction The current market sentiment is in a state of "extreme greed", with a Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index of 77. This indicates a high level of market activity, with long positions dominating. If the optimistic sentiment continues, the price of BTC is expected to break the $100,000 mark.

2.2. Analysis of Fundamentals

Main Fund Flow: According to the data from Direction Of Funds F, the main funds flowed into cryptocurrencies such as ALGO, VIRTUAL, THE, and RENDER. Among them, ALGO has consistently shown a large net inflow in the past two weeks, indicating strong attractiveness to funds. In contrast, MAJOR showed a net outflow, reflecting some pressure on funds.

Retail Investor Trends: From volume data analysis, popular meme coins such as SHIB and DOGE have been actively traded in the past week, reflecting a strong willingness for retail investors to get on board. At the same time, the volume of BTC and ETH has declined, suggesting that funds may temporarily flow into other currencies.

Institutional Investor Trends: Data shows that institutional investor funds continue to flow into large Cryptocurrencies such as THE and REN, reflecting their preference for large coins. At the same time, emerging currencies such as ALGO have also attracted some institutional fund follow.

Market Activity: Overall, there has been a rise in market activity. The daily average Trading Volume of major cryptocurrencies has increased compared to the previous period, indicating a recovery in trading activity. Meanwhile, the continuous emergence of new currencies has also brought new vitality to the market.

Price Movement: There is a certain correlation between fund flow and PA. The prices of currencies with net inflows of funds such as ALGO and VIRTUAL perform relatively well, while the prices of currencies with net outflows of funds such as MAJOR are under pressure. Looking ahead, fund flow may continue to dominate PA.

2.3. Smart Money Analysis

The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. By analyzing the changes in large orders and trading volume, we can gain insight into the movement of institutional funds.

BTC BTC's recent large single transaction volume has shown a net inflow trend, indicating that institutional funds are continuously buying BTC. This trend implies that long positions are dominant, and BTC may continue to pump in the future.

ETH Similar to BTC, ETH's large orders and Trading Volume also show a net inflow. This means that institutional investors are increasing their positions in ETH to support the pump in ETH price. Therefore, the long positions pattern of ETH is expected to continue.

Other currencies
In addition to BTC and ETH, large orders trading volume of other mainstream cryptocurrencies also shows a net inflow trend. This indicates that smart money is flowing into the cryptocurrency market, suggesting that the overall market may continue to pump.

Overall, the current flow of smart money supports the continuation of the long positions market. However, investors still need to closely follow the subsequent changes in large single transaction volumes to capture market reversal signals in a timely manner.

3. Hot Topics

DOGEMarket Cap surpasses Porsche, triggering a memecoin frenzy

Dogecoin Market Cap breaks 547 billion US dollars, surpassing automotive giant Porsche

The market capitalization of Dogecoin (DOGE) recently surpassed $54.7 billion, exceeding the $53.6 billion valuation of luxury car manufacturer Porsche. This milestone marks a significant turning point for Dogecoin, transitioning from a joke currency to a mainstream cryptocurrency asset.

According to on-chain data, there has been a large influx of Whale investors buying Dogecoin recently. The volume and social media discussions have also seen a significant rise. Analyst Carl The Moon predicts that if Dogecoin can break through the resistance level of $0.075, its price may soar to $0.00003630, a rise of up to 42%.

The power of the Dogecoin community and its applications drive the price to pump

The rise of Dogecoin is mainly due to its active community support and expanding use cases. As a "meme coin", the influence of the Dogecoin community has always been a key factor in pumping its price.

Trader Tardigrade analyst said:"The relative strength index (RSI) of Dogecoin rebounded from the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart. The recent rebound of the relative strength index from the same zone led to a big pump of 40% and 200% in Dogecoin."

In addition, more and more payment platforms and merchants are beginning to accept Dogecoin as a payment method, which further enhances its position as an alternative currency.

memecoin Sparks Debate on the Influence of Cryptocurrency

The surge of Dogecoin has sparked heated discussions about the status of memecoins in the cryptocurrency market. Some believe that memecoins provide a simple way for newbies to enter the cryptocurrency world. However, others are concerned about the high volatility and speculative nature of these inexpensive digital assets.

Crypto analyst Philip said, "Any chart predicting Dogecoin to exceed $5 is unrealistic." But he also admitted that Dogecoin can reach at least a "conservative target" of $5 in the current cycle.

Overall, this milestone of Dogecoin demonstrates the increasing influence of cryptocurrency in breaking industry standards and values. It serves as a warning that in this ever-changing market, there are still many unknown stories waiting to unfold.

4. Main Events

Top 15 Major Impact Events in Recent Period

2024-11-29 Dogecoin's Market Cap surpasses Porsche The market capitalization of Dogecoin has reached $54.7 billion, surpassing the $53.6 billion valuation of luxury car manufacturer Porsche. This milestone demonstrates the increasing influence of cryptocurrency in breaking industry standards and value awareness. The rise of Dogecoin highlights the power and potential of meme currency, but also warns of many unknown stories in the ever-changing market.
2024-11-29 21Shares launches 4 new ETPs 21Shares has launched four new ETPs for the blockchain and encryption technology rise industries, focusing on Oracle Machine, tokenization, distributed computing, and artificial intelligence. These new products reflect 21Shares' commitment to catering to the evolving interests of investors and highlighting the diverse practicality of blockchain technology.
2024-11-29 Murad: GIGAMarket Cap may pump to several billion dollars Memes KOL Murad stated that GIGAMarket Cap will soon pump to tens of billions of dollars, making it one of the strongest 'CULTs' of this cycle. This statement has sparked investors' follow and pursuit of GIGA.
2024-11-29 Ethereum developers conference resolution to increase Blob target/max Developers of the Ethereum protocol have stated that the core developers of Ethereum have initially reached consensus at their meeting to raise the Blob target/maximum from 3/6 to 6/9. This resolution aims to optimize the performance and scalability of Ethereum.
2024-11-29 Certik: Funds related to $55 million Phishing incident transferred According to Certik monitoring, funds related to the $55 million Phishing incident on August 21 have been transferred to Tornado.Cash. This discovery has raised concerns about the integrity of encryption currency.
2024-11-28 Solana Co-founder: encryption startups leaving the Bay Area due to overregulation Solana co-founder Toly said that the encryption startup, with a valuation of about $250 billion, left the Bay Area due to excessive regulation. This statement reflects the impact of regulatory policies on the encryption industry.
November 28, 2024, CryptoQuant Founder: It is difficult for BTC's dominance status to decline in the short term CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said that considering the growth rate, it is unlikely for the dominant position of BTC to decline quickly. This view reflects BTC's dominant position in the crypto market.
On November 28, 2024, Router Protocol supports Su Network Cross-Chain Interaction. Cross-Chain Interaction protocol Router Protocol announced that its Nitro Cross-Chain Interaction bridge officially supports Sui network, realizing Cross-Chain Interaction asset exchange between Sui and more than 30 EVM chains. This update extends the Cross-Chain Interaction capability of Router Protocol.
2024-11-28 Immunefi: Hacker stole $71 million encryption assets in November According to the Immunefi report, Hacker stole more than $71 million worth of digital asset in November. This data has sparked follow of encryption integrity.
2024-11-28 Placeholder partner: SOL pumps over 30 times from the bottom Placeholder partner Chris Burniske said that we have entered the encryption Bull Market for two years, and SOL has pumped more than 30 times from the bottom. This view reflects the Bull Market trend in the encryption market.
2024-11-28 Pump Science: This year will focus on URO and RIF Pump Science stated that it will focus on URO and RIF for the rest of this year, and will launch a new Token next year after the audit is completed. This plan reflects Pump Science's development direction.
2024-11-28 Northern Data received an acquisition offer for the encryption Mining department Northern Data plans to sell its CryptoAssets Mining business and is currently close to completing the transaction. This move reflects the transformation of mining companies after the BTC software update.
2024-11-28 Celsius starts second distribution of 127 million US dollars Celsius Network made a second payment to qualified creditors, distributing 1.27 billion USD of liquid encryption assets. This distribution reflects the progress of the Celsius bankruptcy case.
Former CFTC Chairman Expected to Become "Cryptocurrency Tsar" before 2024-11-28 The Trump administration is considering creating a 'encryption czar' position, with former CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo emerging as a strong contender for the role. This plan reflects the Trump administration's emphasis on Crypto Assets.
Avant completes a $6.5 million seed round financing on 2024-11-28 Developer Avant, the encryption protocol, has completed a $6.5 million seed round of financing and plans to fully release the stablecoin avUSD in December. This financing reflects Avant's development trends.

5. Global Policies

The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies or regulations related to the Cryptocurrency industry, as well as analysis and summary of the industry and market impact, based on the news from November 22 to 29, 2024.

**1. The Trump administration is considering appointing the "Cryptocurrency Tsar"

News: The Trump administration is considering creating a 'crypto czar' position to oversee the $30 trillion Block链 industry, with former CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo emerging as a strong contender for the role.

Analysis: If the Trump administration really appoints the "encryption czar", it will be beneficial to clarify the regulation and policy-making of the Crypto Assets industry. Chris Giancarlo, who is considered pro-encryption, has stated that Cryptocurrency will be an "important priority" for the Trump administration. The establishment of this position is expected to bring a more friendly policy environment to the industry and reduce uncertainty.

2. Japanese New Prime Minister Reshuffles We Policy Department

News: Japan's new Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has reorganized the ruling party's We and Cryptocurrency policy development departments, establishing a dedicated institution for the digital society promotion department within the party, led by former We project team secretary-general Shiozaki Akihisa.

Analysis: The reorganization of the We policy department by the Japanese government indicates its plan to continue promoting the development of We-related businesses. The newly appointed Minister of Digital is expected to have previously advocated for reforming Japan's Cryptocurrency tax laws, and this personnel appointment may bring Favourable Information to the Japanese Cryptocurrency industry.

3. Hong Kong plans to implement tax exemption for Crypto Asset gains

News: Hong Kong plans to exempt the Cryptocurrency gains of private sale equity funds, Hedging funds, and high-net-worth investment vehicles from taxation.

Analysis: This move will further enhance Hong Kong's attractiveness as a hub for Crypto Assets. The tax exemption policy is expected to attract more institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals to enter the Crypto Assets market, injecting new vitality into Hong Kong's Crypto Assets ecosystem.

4. South Korea Central Bank unexpectedly cuts interest rates

News: The Central Bank of South Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3%, indicating that it is following the rise of the economy rather than market stability.

Analysis: The interest rate cut by the Central Bank of South Korea reflects its emphasis on the rise of the economy. This policy may bring certain Favourable Information for the investment in risk assets such as Crypto Assets, but it may also intensify inflationary pressure and have a certain impact on the Crypto Assets market.

Summary

The above policies and regulations reflect a clear and friendly regulatory attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry worldwide. The Trump administration is expected to appoint an "encryption czar", and the new Japanese government is also restructuring its policy department. The relevant policies in Hong Kong and South Korea will also bring some favourable information to the cryptocurrency market. Overall, these developments are expected to create a more favorable policy environment for the cryptocurrency industry.

6. Investment Analysis

6.1. Investment Recommendation

Disclaimer: The above recommendations are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, and market entry should be cautious.

6.2 Investment Strategy

This week's popular Token Technical Analysis

After hitting a new high of $99,655.50 earlier this week, BTC is currently consolidating around $95,000. Despite the pullback, BTC's valuation model and on-chain indicators still support higher price targets. Ethereum rose nearly 8% in the past week, breaking through the $3,600 level, and analysts expect it to return to its historical high of $4,868. Shib Inu rose 146% this week, currently trading at $0.40, and analysts are optimistic that it will break through $1.00 and reach $3.00.

Trading robot strategy analysis

The contract grid strategy has performed well this week, especially in TIA_USDT, MOG_USDT, and ENS_USDT, with returns exceeding 70,000%. These strategies profit efficiently by setting grid buy and sell ranges in currency price fluctuations.

The Spot Martin Gale strategy has also performed well, such as JASMY_USDT and CRV_USDT, with a return rate of over 30,000%. This strategy gradually builds a position through dynamic increase the position method when the coin price falls, waiting for a Rebound to make a profit.

Intelligent Position adjustment strategy flexibly adjusts the Position weights of different currencies, such as BTC_USDT, ETH_USDT, and NKN_USDT, with a yield of about 80% and manageable risk.

This week's recommended robot strategy

Summary

This week, the overall performance of quantitative trading strategies was strong, with the highest yields from contract grid and Spot Martingale strategies, but also higher risks. The intelligent rebalancing strategy offers relatively stable returns with controllable risks. Investors can choose a suitable quantitative strategy robot based on their risk preferences.

6.3. Financial Investment Products

Simple Earn

Simple Earn helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After purchasing Simple Earn, the system will determine whether the borrowing is successful and the Intrerest Rate for each hour based on the user's set borrowing Intrerest Rate and actual borrowing needs at every o'clock. Successful borrowing can earn Interest for that hour.

The total amount of USDT in Yue Bi Bao is 350,193,997.59, with an estimated Annual Percentage Rate of 16.65% + 8.87%.

Financial Management Treasure

Licaibao is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center, including current, fixed-term, and other financial plans, providing users with hundreds of types of Digital Money financial products.

Structured Financial Management

Gate.io structural wealth management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as Options. Generally, the performance of the underlying assets during the investment period is compared with the stipulated trigger price to determine the level of Settlement yield.

4.市场Intrerest Rate

Annotation:

TradFi is the abbreviation of TradFi, including Intrerest Rate of Overnight, USD-1m, and USD-6m.
CeFi is the abbreviation of centralized encryption finance, including the funds Intrerest Rate of platforms such as Crypto Assets exchange.
DeFi is the abbreviation of Decentralized Finance, which includes the range of Decentralized lending protocols and interest rates.

Disclaimer: The above data is for reference only and the actual Interest Rate may vary. Investors should conduct their own research and evaluation before making investment decisions.

6.4. Technical Analysis

ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy

Bollinger Bands is a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions based on the standard deviation of prices. The trading rules for ETH historical data backtesting based on Bollinger Bands trading strategy are as follows:

When the ETH price approaches or breaks through the upper band, take selling action, Position is 20%
When the ETH price approaches or breaks below the lower rail, make a purchase, Position is 20%
The initial principal is 100,000.00 USDT

Backtest Results

Based on the above trading strategy, backtesting was conducted on the daily ETH data in November 2024, and the backtesting results are as follows:

Final Yield: 12.35%
Maximum Drawdown: 8.72%
Annualized Volatility: 36.21%

Data analysis shows that the trading strategy performed well overall in November, achieving a positive return of 12.35%. However, there is also a certain level of risk, with a maximum drawdown of 8.72% and a high annualized Volatility of 36.21%.

Pros and Cons Analysis

Advantages:

As a technical indicator, Bollinger Bands can accurately identify the Overbought and Oversold areas of prices.
The trading strategy is simple and easy to execute.
By setting a fixed Position ratio, the risk exposure is effectively controlled.

Disadvantages:

The parameter settings of the Bollinger Bands have a significant impact on the trading results and need further optimization.
Single indicator signals may have lagging effects and need to be combined with other indicators.
In the intense Fluctuation market, frequent stop loss may increase Transaction Cost.

Overall, the ETH Bollinger Band trading strategy is worth further research and optimization to achieve higher returns under the premise of risk control.