The situation changed dramatically after Trump's victory

A tsunami of global production relations is about to come. In the trend of increasing entropy, the new era of establishment is gradually breaking through the critical point in chaos.

Original Title: "Yang Ge Gary: Dramatic Changes in the Pattern After Trump's Victory"

Author: Gary Yang, Founder of Xinghan Capital

Written in Bangkok - Singapore - Hong Kong - Dubai in November 2024

After Trump's election, there was a drastic and reflexive Fluctuation in global social relations and financial assets, with the butterfly effect affecting many aspects. On the surface, Bitcoin and emerging assets surged, gold plummeted, the dollar regained some control over assets, the US established a new leadership team and even set up the D.O.G.E. department, global Degen and innovators regained confidence, Devcon mapped an indescribable frenzy in the chaotic city of Cyberpunk, and conflicts in various civilizations seemed to breathe a sigh of relief and take a temporary break. Essentially, the global landscape is undergoing rapid and dramatic changes, with mixed expectations of development and completely different concepts. A tsunami of dramatic changes in global production relations is about to come, and in the trend of increasing entropy, the establishment of a new era is gradually breaking through the critical point in the chaos.

In the days following Trump's victory, many frens asked a question: why did the US stock market and Crypto Market surge at the same time, does Trump represent more centralization or Decentralization? I posted a response online like this:

After the election victories of Trump and Musk, the interests of the left-wing representing the Nolan curve were restrained, and the extreme personal freedom and blue shift that had been radicalized in recent years lost legitimacy, replaced by the right-wing forces of economic freedom, and the feedback in recent days has also confirmed that the red shift proposition has indeed brought hope of breaking the temporary dilemma.

There are many frens asking, why is Bitcoin, which represents the opposite concepts of centralization and decentralization in the increasingly intensified United States, rising at the same time these days? The reason is very clear, this is a temporary economic freedom breakthrough before the war, breaking the constraints of left-wing doctrinal freedom.

This involves several issues, and also gives rise to more fundamental questions:

The contradictory nature of the US two-party alternating position pattern has undergone a fundamental change

The belief shift of the anchoring object in the three-generation financial system

The historical significance and accompanying issues of Bitcoin and Crypto

Do Trump and Musk represent the positions and interests of the crypto financial system?

The inevitable nature, problems, and twists and turns in the rise of the younger generation and the establishment of the new production relationship system

The wisdom of social groups is helping to establish a new production relationship system in a very special way of Decentralization.

The current major and minor contradictions in the global world, as well as the chaotic cycles brought about by uncertainty

The contradictory nature of the change in the alternating pattern of the two-party positions in the United States

The positions of the two parties in the United States represent the different freedoms on both sides of the Nolan curve. The left wing of the Democratic Party and the blue side represent individual freedom, advocating for conditional and equal freedom; the right wing of the Republican Party and the red side represent economic freedom, advocating for unconditional and competitive freedom, closer to the idea of Social Darwinism. Due to the extreme and easily attacked contradictions of Social Darwinism in the management of Eastern and Western civilizations in peacetime, it is not advocated by many countries, including the United States. On the contrary, the individual freedom advocated by the Democratic Party satisfies the needs of individual survival and the stable development needs of the managers in a peaceful historical stage, thus becoming relatively dominant in American culture over the past 20 years.

However, in the evolution and development process of the world in recent years, as the previous industry - mainly the computer and Internet industry - gradually matures, the liberal environment gradually transitions to pragmatic utilitarianism, and then continues to evolve into collective hegemonism (Note 1), which is reflected in the global corporate monopoly, fierce competition, soaring prices, employment pressure, and complex and costly access threshold system. The individual freedom system gradually ossifies and develops towards extreme personal freedom under the demands of finance and politics. Many people believe that the over-popularity of hundreds of gender identifications, excessive use of marijuana, and the inflation and pressure of capital competition are all extreme products of right-wing development. Representatives of left-wing innovation entrepreneurs, such as Musk, after being excluded from the new energy vehicle whitelist by the Democratic Party because of opposition to setting up a union, and upgrading to the rival of SpaceX, and finally, their eldest son undergoing gender reassignment surgery, which was the last straw that broke the camel's back, causing the value confrontation between the left and right wings represented by the two parties to finally erupt completely. The fundamental contradiction of the alternating pattern of the positions of the two parties in the United States actually represents the left-wing individual liberalism management method that is overly ossified and conforms to the interests of the FED in the previous historical stage represented by the Democratic Party, and the right-wing economic liberalism management method represented by the emerging Republican new aristocracy group. The contradiction between these two. The results of the November 2024 election showed that the latter's call ultimately dominated the main momentum, breaking the roof and breaking the power of the conservative left, temporarily making history evolve towards the right-wing blue movement.

This kind of evolution is usually only revolutionary in a short period of time. When such a Node appears in history, it usually does not transition smoothly to the next major development stage. There are generally two results: one is to be strongly countered by the other party and fall into a more chaotic situation, and the other is for the breakthrough force to consolidate this change and new trend, it must form a more centralized power or implement more extreme strategies, leading to an opposite extreme. Whether the combination of Trump and Musk is more similar to Caesar and Octavian heading towards the latter, or pretending to be a Lincoln in the digital information age along with the demands of the times, it is still difficult to draw a conclusion in the current 2024, or it is a superposition state in itself.

II. Successive Changes in the Belief of Anchors in the Three Generations of Financial Systems

In the days following Trump's victory, the three pillars of the financial system - gold, the US dollar, and Bitcoin - experienced rapid and dramatic reversals. It can be said that the Market Swarm AI's rapid response speed still exceeds the imagination of each individual.

This point is very simple and clear. Gold represents the historical financial credit system based on the gold standard, the US dollar represents the US dollar-based Financial Institution credit system since the Bretton Woods system, and Bitcoin represents the new digital financial credit system built on the Decentralization blockchain, which is driven by the interests of a decentralized community outside the existing centralized Financial Institutions, and represents the future digitalized society. These three systems, before Trump's election, formed a temporary equilibrium by continuously strengthening gold, followed by the US dollar, and Bitcoin remaining weak. From the data, from 2023 to November 2024, gold soared from less than 2000 to 2800, while the global asset influence of the US dollar declined by 3% year-on-year, and Bitcoin's momentum remained weak after the Halving, and the introduction of ETFs brought about increased concentration in the Crypto industry, reduced innovation, and a decrease in total Market Cap.

Just a week after Trump's victory, the value and control of the three anchor assets quickly reversed sharply, not only in terms of their own prices, but also in terms of their correlations and forward-looking additions and decreases among themselves, as well as in their respective and other cross-class assets (Note 2). The three anchor assets represent the positions of the three generations of the "old, middle and young" financial system, that is, they represent different consensus in different historical time periods. The golden time is from BC600 to AD1944, and the time of the US dollar is from AD1944 to the present, and the continuous breakthrough of Bitcoin after this election indicates that the world is constantly exploring the new financial value system of Decentralization in the middle of the digital information age. As of mid-November 2024, the Crypto market-wide Market Cap is close to 3.2T, with Bitcoin itself approaching 1.9T, less than double Nvidia's 3.5T.

III. The Historical Significance and Associated Issues of Bitcoin and Crypto

The historical significance of Bitcoin and Crypto as the Smart Contract-based Decentralization management system representing the future society is constantly improving, especially after Trump's election victory, there is a trend of qualitative change from quantitative change.

In his speech in Nashville in July 2024, Trump mentioned the relevant actions he would take if elected.

Dismiss Gary Gensler and appoint a new SEC chairman;

Establish a strategic national BTC reserve for the US government;

The US government will keep 100% of the BTC it owns;

Ensure that the United States will not have CBDC during the term;

End the Biden and Harris government's anti-Cryptocurrency movement and enhance the Cryptocurrency innovation environment;

Let BTC and Cryptocurrency soar in ways never before seen;

Supporting the freedom and sovereignty independence represented by Bitcoin, ensuring it is not subject to forced and controlled by the US government.

From the short-term actual situation after Trump's victory in November 2024, apart from the continuous surge in the prices of Bitcoin and Crypto Assets in the checklist, there are indeed signs of the other points being implemented one by one. This accelerated process undoubtedly will bring about a significant change in the pattern of benefits, credit foundation, market transactions, and the essence of social production relations, it can be said that Trump and Musk are continuously pushing history, leading to pivotal changes in the United States and even the world.

Although the theoretical proximity of the singularity leads to the logic of exponential curve development being easy to understand, the rapid nodal changes, especially those involving changes in important interests and management of production relations, are bound to encounter various levels of contradictions and backlash. The temporary stable eye of the typhoon at the end of 2024 will be short-lived, and at this stage, many power entities and interest organizations will be more unprepared for adjustment and face greater uncertainty and chaos. Despite the clear and strong orthodoxy of the future financial and social systems depicted by Bitcoin and Crypto, the accompanying problems and contradictions are too numerous to be instantly resolved at this historical stage. Just as Su Shi in the late Northern Song Dynasty said to Wang Anshi, the joint reform advocated by Wang Anshi and Emperor Huizong is not more advanced simply because others do not understand it, but rather because it affects too many interest structures to gain support. Obviously, the joint actions of Trump and Musk this time are much more radical than the joint actions of Emperor Huizong and Wang Anshi, and the accompanying problems and consequences that await will also be more intense, as the world faces greater uncertainty and chaos.

Bitcoin and Crypto have experienced a strong rise in the wake of Trump's victory, and there are many accompanying issues. Here, I will simply list a few aspects:

It will fundamentally affect and change the definition and operation methods of payment settlement, transaction scenarios, asset management, credit supervision, and even the economy and value system of the United States and global finance.

There is a fundamental conflict between the current and planned economic and fiscal policies of various countries around the world, as well as the strategies for managing social production resulting from them;

The above two points have resulted in different decisions and solutions when countries face problems, which in turn leads to the escalation of conflicts (Note 4) and further polarization and division of global democracy and collective ideology.

IV. Does Trump or Musk represent the position and interests of the crypto financial system?

The current positions of Trump and Musk are complex superposition states, and their true positions cannot be directly determined from the surface.

For Trump and Musk themselves, although both have the characteristics of adhering to right-wing positions and achieving self-realization under the advocacy of economic freedom, Trump tends to be more realistic, with a tendency to take advantage of tools and trends in the development process.

So in the face of the position and interests of the future world finance and Crypto, Trump is more bottom-up in thinking, that is, the logic of "if this can achieve me, then choose it", this thinking has been very clear in his past speeches:

"I'm too old to worry about who likes me and who dislikes me. I have more important things to do. If you love me, I love you. If you support me, I support you. If you hate me, I don’t care. Life goes on with or without you."

That is to say, from the perspective of the future at this stage, it cannot be said that Trump always represents the position and interests of the crypto financial system. It can only be said that Trump has used this trend to achieve his own stage goals and has also promoted the rapid development of this trend.

Musk's situation is slightly different. Compared to Trump, he is more idealistic, with a logic of 'this is how the future of the world should be, and I stand with the future', with more top-down thinking. However, he is still a realist. This is why he chose to commemorate Nikola TSL as the company name and surpass TSL, embodying the essence of combining ideals and reality.

On the basis of this foundation, Musk has a more idealistic future vision in mind. Based on the point that future production relations are more efficient, the Smart Contract governance of Crypto, Decentralization finance issuance, and Decentralization collective decision-making all have obvious legitimacy. This is also the reason why Trump immediately launched the D.O.G.E. department and appointed Musk as the head after winning the election, as well as Musk's proposal to cancel the use of automated declaration by the national tax authority. Therefore, in comparison, Musk's self-realization is more representative of the position and interests of the Crypto financial system than Trump, due to the idealism he brings. With this small difference, he can represent a bit more.

Of course, this representation and promotion are also based on his planned real interests, and like any other organization or individual, Musk also finds it difficult to work and develop from the perspective of going to Mars, at least not at this stage. Under the overlap of Wuda Wei and Lincoln, if Musk can successfully escape the current counter-pressure and enter the next stage, and then continue to promote the development of decentralized new financial and social systems beyond history, giving up the personal worship of honor himself, then he can become a historical Node, which can be said to represent the position and interests of the new system. It's difficult, but not impossible.

The inevitable necessity, problems, and twists and turns of the rise of the younger generation and the establishment of the new production relationship system

Whether Musk can successfully complete the historical Node mission with a good attitude or not, he has successfully represented the transitional change between the two generations before and after the connection singularity. More and more young people of the new generation are emerging along this transitional change with Degen thinking.

After Trump's election victory, from the points discussed above: the change in the pattern caused by the alternating positions of the two major political parties in the United States, the replacement of faith in the anchor of the three-generation financial system, the further growth of Bitcoin and Crypto representing the future society's Smart Contract-based Decentralization management system, and the analysis of the psychology and issues under different positions using Trump and Musk as examples; from these, it is already apparent that there is a clear trend in the process of establishing a new system, and the problems and contradictory positions are also very distinct.

The D.O.G.E. department emerged from a very humorous perspective, and although incredible, it pointed out the biggest problem in the world today: the irreconcilable issue of low production efficiency in the current global mainstream economic and social environment. The essence behind this is the irreconcilable problem of global economic and trade exchanges, which leads to irreconcilable conflicts among various social civilizations, irreversible increase in production, employment, and financial governance entropies of various countries. The peaceful environment brought by the Keynesian economic theory is about to come to an end.

Interestingly, when faced with such inherent contradictions, almost all countries and entities choose the Rollback management method, advocating a traditional management method with their own cultural characteristics rather than taking the risk of accepting a new and more efficient management method. This point is predicted and reasonably explained in Huntington's Clash of Civilizations, and it is also understandable because taking a relatively more familiar path has lower risks and is conducive to maintaining stability for managers. It is precisely for this reason that it will create significant resistance in the process of building a new system, leading to twists and turns in the development of the era.

In the current global context, this traditional management approach is more likely to occur in the zone of major civilizations in the northern hemisphere. On the contrary, some sub-civilizations and regions in the southern hemisphere, where the intensity of the original civilization is not very concentrated (Note 5), are becoming the soil for the establishment of new civilizations and emerging production relations systems.

VI. The collective wisdom of society empowers the establishment of a very special Decentralization method in the emerging production relationship system.

The first major Crypto industry event after the election, Devcon, was held in Bangkok, Thailand. The city, known as the most cyberpunk charm city, was crowded from morning till night. The neon lights and the chaos of congestion formed a breeding ground for rapid interaction and collaboration in the Decentralization civilization, which is jokingly referred to as the city of sin. Degen and Digital Nomads are building the Infra for Decentralized Finance here, discussing the techniques of rapid launching and gold mining memes. The emotion of fear of missing out is rapidly integrating into the thoughts of Blockchain and Protocol, accompanied by the budding of AI in an unregulated environment, forming a new Smart Contract system that breaks the Keynesian ideological system and constitutes a Decentralization social and economic management system. It's like millions of people are writing a new Hammurabi Code together. To some extent, compared to Singapore at Token2049 and the glamorous Dubai, Bangkok, Thailand has more characteristics of a emerging production relationship system (Native Feature).

When I mention the characteristics of this era for comparative paradigms, I often use the late Middle Ages Renaissance, while Cyberpunk's Bangkok is the Baroque of the Renaissance. The iterative evolution of Degen's social collective consciousness, in such a diverse and open environment, forms a rapid collision of neurons, forming collective wisdom (Swarm AI).

The open soil has an amazing evolutionary effect on this collective wisdom. Perhaps even the Solana Foundation itself did not imagine that the outbreak of Meme driven by pump.fun could reach such a level in the two weeks after Trump's victory. The seemingly disordered and speculative Meme Launch quietly extracts Liquidity from CeFi and TradFi, changing the logic of CEX and VC projects, resisting and rebuilding a more Decentralized Finance Native new order. PVP, operating day and night, is actually the basic unit of the new system's microfinance, the basic cell of the next generation's economy, and the cellular automaton of the new financial system. Furthermore, as the concept of AI Agent and AI Validator continues to evolve and mature, coupled with CZ's recent advocacy of DeSci as a catalyst, it provides a direction for the disorder of Meme, and I believe that the evolution and development in the coming years will be immeasurable.

The grassroots iteration of the emerging production relationship system has never actually slowed down, and Trump's election was like a flame igniting this long-accumulated catalytic reaction.

VII. The main contradictions and secondary contradictions in the current global world, as well as the chaotic cycles brought about by uncertainty.

In November 2024, the world is at a historic Node of great uncertainty, deeper chaos and new system building, all at a critical juncture. The tension and confrontation brought about by Trump's victory will be the final blow to dismantle the existing world Consensus.

What is the main contradiction in the world today? Samuel Huntington pointed out in 1994 that it is the conflict between civilizations, which is a fundamental understanding that I highly respect and agree with. However, in 2024, the world experienced drastically different developments and contradictions in civilization, witnessing the dramatic victories of Trump and Musk, and imagining the indescribable uncertainty and chaotic expectations that followed, I realized that the contradiction is by no means limited to this.

The primary contradiction in the current global world is:

From a global perspective, countries and interest entities, which take their original collective interests as the starting point, use power to manage productivity and means of production in order to maintain and amplify their own advantages, and to confront and compete with other entities, in the environment based on the coexistence and peace of the global Keynesian Western economy after World War II.

Same

From a global bottom-up perspective, individuals and interest entities with their own interests as the starting point are thinking of alternative ways to rebuild and grow their productivity and means of production in the new financial environment of smart contracts built on the next generation of decentralized blockchain, in order to overcome and break through the existing advantages and gain access to new opportunities.

The contradiction between them. In fact, as of the end of 2024, most countries and stakeholders around the world are still in an environment of semi-feudal and semi-centralized state capitalism. The current main contradiction is pushing them towards an environment of semi-centralized state capitalism and semi-Decentralization digital information management.

In such a primary contradiction, the conflict between civilizations and the contradiction between AI digital and humans are temporarily subordinate to the secondary contradiction at this stage. Before Trump's election, conflicts between civilizations represented by the potential Thucydides trap and potential new cold war still had the characteristics of a primary contradiction; but after Trump's election, it is obvious that these conflicts will gradually become secondary contradictions, and even conflicts between civilizations in the Middle East will become secondary contradictions within a certain period of time. Instead, this new primary contradiction emerges. Of course, within the 21st century, the contradiction between AI digital and humans is very likely to escalate, surpass, and become a renewed primary contradiction, but not currently.

For such a completely different new civilization conflict with two opposing forces, uncertainty and chaos are just beginning. Many people thought that the uncertainty and chaos brought by the epidemic from 2020 to 2023 had ended, but it was actually just the prelude to a larger era. Under the new paradigm of the era, plagues, wars, famines, and deaths have their own pace. What we need to do is not to evade and deny, but to recognize, face, adapt, and change.

Note:

Note 1: The article 'The Gear of Society in February 2020' elaborated on the cyclical process of global historical development, divided into four stages: idealism, liberalism, pragmatism, collectivism.

Note 2: In November 2024, the correlation between the US dollar and gold changed dramatically from +0.85 to -0.89 around Trump's victory, setting a historical record.

Note 3: Wang Anshi's reform was a joint reform movement between the ruler and his ministers during the Northern Song Dynasty in Chinese history, which began in 1069 and ended in failure.

Note 4: The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order is a work by American political scientist Samuel Huntington, first published in 1996.

Note 5: Refers to regions where diverse cultural integration is relatively balanced and the dominant civilization is not very strong, such as Southeast Asia, Central and South America, Australia and Oceania, parts of Africa and the Middle East.