October CPI will be announced: JPMorgan predicts a minor rate cut by the Fed at the end of the year, with rate cuts every quarter in 2025.

Inflation has always been an economic issue that is closely followed globally, and on the eve of the release of the core consumer price index (CPI) in the United States, which is closely related to inflation, Phoebe White, Managing Director of JPMorgan, recently stated in an interview that the release of this CPI data may affect the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision in December. The market currently generally expects the core CPI to remain stable. If the result exceeds expectations, it may lead the Fed to reconsider cutting interest rates again at the end of the year.

Inflationary pressure continues to rise, and the FED may make a slight rate cut in December.

White said that JPMorgan expects core CPI to rise by 0.4%, slightly higher than the market consensus, but she believes the Fed may still cut interest rates slightly in December. The Fed's current focus is to adjust interest rates to a 'moderate' level to cope with long-term economic growth and inflationary pressures.

The market is worried about inflation stagnation, and policy uncertainty exacerbates inflation risk.

White also said that the market once believed that inflation was slowing down in the past few months, but recent signs of stagnation have emerged, so investors may need to reassess their expectations of inflation easing. White further stated that recent changes in the US political situation, coupled with new rounds of trade tariffs and future immigration policy changes, could push up prices. Taken together, this could increase the upward risk of inflation in terms of wages rise and price increases.

The current CPI for September is 2.4%, and the core CPI is 3.3%. The market Intrerest Rate curve reflects the rise in short-term inflation expectations.

White pointed out that the Intrerest Rate curve in the bond market has risen in the short term, reflecting investors' expectations of short-term inflation, possibly due to the impact of tariff increases. She explained that although short-term Intrerest Rates have risen, the rise in long-term inflation expectations is not significant, indicating that the market believes that inflation is mainly influenced by external factors rather than sustained upward pressure on inflation.

If participating in the FOMC meeting, support another interest rate cut in December but suggest slowing the pace.

When asked what suggestions she would make if she could participate in the next FOMC meeting, White said she supports a small rate cut in December to stabilize the economy, but also suggests that the pace should slow down afterwards. She emphasized that assuming stable economic growth by 2025 and the possibility of inflation remaining at a certain level, it would be difficult to make any changes. Furthermore, the Fed needs to consider reducing the frequency of rate cuts to avoid creating expectations of continued rate cuts in the market, which could lead to an economic imbalance.

Predicted FED 2025 future rate cut frequency is "once per quarter"

White said that JPMorgan's current forecast is that the Fed may cut interest rates on a quarterly basis in 2025, rather than at every FOMC meeting. She pointed out that this adjustment could help stabilize the labor market and address uncertainty about inflation.

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This article October CPI will be announced: JPMorgan predicts a small rate cut by the Fed at the end of the year, with rate cuts occurring once every quarter by 2025, as reported by Chain News ABMedia.