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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (11.07-11.14)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of Digital Money reached $2.53 trillion, a rise of 0.54% compared to the previous week. The exchange volume decreased by 34.74% to $14.335 billion. BTC's dominance is 59.56%, a 0.28% increase compared to the previous week. The overall market is showing a slight upward trend, but the volume has decreased. Certain coins in the Meme zone have experienced a significant rise, such as PNUT, which has been mentioned multiple times by Elon Musk.
Today's fear and greed index is 75, and the market sentiment is "greed". Compared with yesterday, the index has slightly decreased, but the overall market sentiment is still relatively optimistic.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
According to the latest data, global economic conditions and changes in monetary policy have had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. The US CPI in October pumped by 7.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.9%, but lower than the previous value of 8.2%, showing some easing of inflationary pressure. The initial value of the Eurozone's CPI in October was 1.5% month-on-month, higher than the expected 1.2%, and pumped by 10.6% year-on-year, reaching a record high. The Federal Reserve's Interest Rate decision in November maintained the Interest Rate at 4.50%-4.75%, in line with market expectations. CME data shows that the market expects a 63.8% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise the Interest Rate by another 25 basis points to the 4.75%-5.00% range in December.
Overall, inflationary pressures have eased but remain high. The Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to curb inflation expectations, which may put some pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrency. However, the Trump administration is expected to promote regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency, which is beneficial for the industry in the long run.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis:
The U.S. October CPI data is one of the most important economic data releases this week, which will reflect whether inflationary pressures continue to ease. Market expectations are for CPI annual rate to further decline from September's 2.40%.
The September ILO unemployment rate for the UK will show the condition of the UK job market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a low level.
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone will reflect the economic outlook of the Eurozone. Due to the dual pressures of inflation and energy crisis facing the European economy, the index is expected to be lower than the previous month's level.
U.S. October PPI data will reflect producer price inflation pressure. The market expects the PPI annual rate to further decrease from 1.80% in September.
U.S. retail sales data for October will reflect the consumer spending situation. Due to easing inflation pressures and a stable job market, retail sales are expected to maintain a moderate rise.
In general, the major economic data released this week will focus on areas such as inflation, employment, and consumer spending, which will provide important references for the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Fluctuation
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Weekly Volatility This week's BTC weekly volatility is 3.21%, calculated by the standard deviation of the Closing Price for each day within a week.
Price fluctuations and reasons This week, the price of BTC pumped by 10.32%, reaching a high of $76,832.70. The main reason is that Trump won the 2024 US presidential election, and the market expects him to implement crypto-friendly policies, thereby driving up the price of BTC.
Volume changes and impact The average daily volume of BTC this week increased by 23.45% compared to last week. The increase in trading activity reflects the market's optimistic outlook on the future of BTC, which is conducive to further pump in price.
Market Activity and Potential Price Direction The fear and greed index of BTC reached 70 this week, belonging to the "greed" range, indicating that the market sentiment is overly optimistic. In the short term, BTC price may experience a pullback, but the medium and long-term bullish trend will continue.
2.2. Analysis of Financial Situation
According to the fund flow data, the net inflow of major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and Ethereum has increased this week. This indicates a high market activity and investors' optimistic sentiment towards the cryptocurrency market.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, the Crypto Assets market ushered in a wave of Favourable Information. Institutional investors expect the Trump administration to introduce Crypto Assets-friendly regulatory policies, thereby accelerating the inflow of institutional funds into the Crypto Assets market.
Meanwhile, retail investors are also buying the dips, hoping that the Trump administration can bring new development opportunities for Crypto Assets. Fund flow data shows that the net inflow of popular tokens such as DOGE has increased significantly this week.
Overall, after Trump's election, the Crypto Assets market welcomed favorable funding, and investors have high expectations for the future. However, there are also certain uncertainties in the market, and investors need to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often predicts market trends. By analyzing the changes in large orders and trading volume, we can gain insights into institutional fund movements.
BTC (BTC) In recent weeks, the large single transaction volume of BTC has shown a rising trend, indicating that institutional funds are flowing in. This means that long positions dominate, and there is considerable pump pressure in the future.
Ethereum (ETH) Similar to BTC, the large single order Trading Volume of ETH is also increasing, but the increase is relatively small. This indicates that institutional demand for ETH is increasing, but compared to BTC, the influx of funds is relatively weak.
Summary Overall, smart money is flowing into the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC. This suggests that long positions will dominate in the short term. However, the inflow of funds into ETH is relatively lagging, and the pumping momentum may be inferior to BTC.
3. Hot Topics
According to the provided data, the most discussed hot topic in the past week is the election of Trump as the President of the United States and its impact on the Crypto Assets industry. Here are the related topic reports:
Trump's election triggers the Crypto Assets market, and BTC is expected to break through the $100,000 mark
Trump's victory triggers a surge in zone, BTC price hits a new high again
Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has triggered a frenzy in the Cryptocurrency market. After the news came out, the price of BTC skyrocketed, breaking through the historical high of $76,677 at one point. According to relevant data, BTC has pumped 8% in the past seven days. In addition, AltCoins have also experienced a general rise, with BTC dominance (BTC.D) falling more than 2% in the past 8 hours, now standing at 59.77%.
Dennis Porter, co-founder of Satoshi Action Fund, said on X platform, "Currently, over 250 US congressmen support BTC." Trump previously stated that he would dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office, supporting BTC and cryptocurrency, including establishing a national BTC reserve, supporting American mining, and lifting regulations on cryptocurrency.
Analysts are bullish on the future prospects of Bitcoin, with a $100,000 price point just around the corner.
CoinShares Research Director James Butterfill said, "This week Trump won the presidential election, and the Republican Party gained a new majority in the Senate, which may make it easier for the expected loose regulatory framework to be passed. So it is now possible for the price of BTC to rise to $100,000 (meaning 33% pump space)."
Fadi Aboualfa, research director at Copper.co, believes that "by January 20, 2025, when Trump takes office as president, the price of BTC is likely to reach $100,000." He explained, "Trump witnessed two historic highs during his presidency from 2016 to 2020. Although these gains occurred against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, unlike the current environment of a strengthening dollar. However, considering that BTC Spot ETF currently holds about 1.1 million BTC, the momentum in the coming months may remain positive."
Renowned trader Peter Brandt boldly predicts that BTC may reach a peak of $130,000 to $150,000 in the current bull market, expected to peak around August or September 2025. He explains: "My cycle measuring method is different from most people, with BTC's halving cycle often creating symmetrical time patterns in bull markets. If this trend continues, the peak of this bull market cycle may be within the range of $130,000 to $150,000."
AltCoin frenzy, DOGE prices are highly followed
In addition to Bitcoin, the price performance of shitcoin and other AltCoins has also attracted market attention. Cryptocurrency analyst AliMartinez predicts, "The price of shitcoin may reach $23 in this Bull Market." He explains that in past Bull Market cycles, once DOGE broke through the $0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, it often pumped to the 1.618 or even 2.272 Fibonacci levels.
Martinez also mentioned that as Elon Musk now influences Trump, the price of DOGE may experience a wild Fluctuation. Musk is a supporter of DOGE, and if he continues to push his "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E) proposal, he will play a significant role in the Trump administration.
Another analyst, DimaJames, confirmed that the expected pump of DOGE price to $10 is still underway. He pointed out that to validate the breakout and initiate a parabolic rise, DOGE needs to surpass $0.18 Closing Price this week.
4. Major Events
Major Event Review
Trump won the 2024 US presidential election, which has had a major impact on the Crypto Assets market. Trump has expressed his intention to establish a strategic BTC reserve to support the development of the digital asset industry. Many institutions predict that Trump's inauguration will promote the introduction of Crypto Assets-friendly regulations, with mainstream currencies such as BTC expected to continue to benefit in the next 8 weeks. In addition, Trump's policies may lead to a weakening of the US dollar, which is favorable for safe-haven assets such as BTC.
Affected by Trump's victory, the memes zone saw a general rise on the 7th. Data shows that meme coins such as LUCE and PNUT rose by more than 60% on the day. Analysts believe that after the Trump administration takes office, meme coins may receive more follow, and investor sentiment is expected to further heat up. However, some analysts also remind that meme coin investment carries higher risks and requires cautious operation.
The ETH zone ecosystem performed well on the 7th, with several popular currencies seeing double-digit gains. Data shows that currencies such as ENA, OP, and EIGEN all saw gains of over 10% on the day. Analysts pointed out that the ETH zone ecosystem resonates significantly with BTC, and Trump's victory is good news for the overall Cryptocurrency market.
US encryption-related company stocks soared collectively in pre-market trading on the 7th. Data shows that the stock prices of TSL, MARA, and other companies all rose by more than 10% before the market opened. Analysts believe that investors have high expectations for the Trump administration's support for the cryptocurrency industry, and encryption stocks are being pursued by funds.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called on the Trump administration to quickly reshape US cryptocurrency regulation on social media. He suggested firing SEC Chairman Gensler and pushing for the Senate to pass the digital asset market structure bill. Analysts believe that improving the regulatory environment will be Favourable Information for the long-term development of the cryptocurrency industry.
Data shows that the net inflow of funds for the 7-day US BTC Spot ETF reached 623 million US dollars. Analysts pointed out that investors have high expectations for the future of BTC, and the Spot ETF's ability to attract funds has increased.
On the 7th, the price of privacy computing public chain ALEO surged more than 40%. Analysts believe that the recent technological progress of ALEO and the continuous heating up of the concept of privacy computing are the main reasons.
Before the trading on the 6th, the stock prices of multiple encryption-related companies collectively surged by more than 10%. Analysts pointed out that investors are full of expectations for the Trump administration's support for the cryptocurrency industry.
The Aleo Chinese community has publicly questioned a16z's lawsuit against the original Aleo team. Analysts believe that the poor performance of the Aleo mainnet has raised doubts in the community.
Flux enforced the upgrade to FluxOS 5.31.0 on the 6th. The new version has optimized application installation logic, etc.
On the 5th, Eigenlayer unlocked about 690,000 EIGEN Tokens, accounting for about 0.69% of the circulating supply.
Jupiter deprecated its old limit order endpoint on the 5th, which may affect users who have not upgraded.
Astar announces the launch of asynchronous support upgrade, which has been successfully applied to the Shibuya network, and is expected to be applied to Astar and Shiden as well.
Dione released a complete roadmap covering rise, marketing, etc. on the 4th.
Memecoin unlocked about 4.49 billion MEME tokens on the 3rd, accounting for approximately 17.93% of the circulation.
5. Global Policies
The following is a list of new political dynamics, economic policies or regulations related to the Cryptocurrency industry, as well as the analysis of their impact on the industry and market, based on the news from November 1st to November 8th, 2024.
Trump elected President of the United States
Political Dynamics
Impact Analysis
The Trump administration is expected to bring a Favourable Information policy environment to the Cryptocurrency industry.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy
Economic Policy
Impact Analysis
The Fed's interest rate hike policy will have a certain impact on the cryptocurrency market:
Summary
The Trump administration's takeover and the adjustment of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will bring a new policy and regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency industry. Although there may be some fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, it is beneficial to the healthy development of the cryptocurrency market and injects new vitality into the industry. Investors need to be patient, closely follow the direction of the policy, and carefully grasp investment opportunities.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investment carries risks, so enter the market cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategies
Hot Token Analysis
This week's hot Tokens include PEPE, SHIB, DOGE and other meme coins. PEPE, as a newly listed meme coin, is popular among American users, and its price has pumped by 13%. While SHIB and DOGE have attracted funding after Trump's election, pumping 2% and 9% respectively. The trend of these meme coins reflects the market's optimistic expectations for Trump's policies.
Trading Robot Strategy Analysis
The trading robot strategies performed well this week, especially the contract grid and Spot Martingale strategies, which had high returns. The contract grid strategy profited significantly in high fluctuation markets by setting grid buying and selling prices. The Spot Martingale strategy, on the other hand, continued to profit by buying in batches during pump trends. Overall, high-risk, high-reward quantitative strategies stood out in this week's market.
Summary
After Trump's election, the market's expectations for his close monetary policy boosted the trend of MEME currencies. At the same time, high-risk, high-return quantitative trading strategies also achieved substantial gains in this week's market. Investors can cautiously grasp investment opportunities based on their risk preferences.
6.3. Financial Management Products
Simple Earn Interest compound interest, Interestcompound interest, Interestcompound interest. Total Funds(USDT): 1.11 billion USDT Annual Percentage Rate (APR) for the past 7 days: 4.36% + 8.87%
Financial Management Treasure The first profit starts here! Low threshold, high security, high yield. Licaibao is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term, and other comprehensive financial solutions, providing users with hundreds of types of Digital Money financial products.
Structured Financial Products A new financial product that combines fixed income with Options and other financial derivatives. Gate.io structural wealth management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as Options. It generally determines the level of Settlement's yield based on the relationship between the price performance of the underlying asset during the investment period and the stipulated trigger price, and can be divided into two types: principal-guaranteed and aggressive.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party, may be lagging, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. Before making any investment decisions, please conduct due diligence and assume risks on your own.
6.4. Technical Analysis
ETH Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands is a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This strategy adopts the following trading rules:
The initial principal is 100,000.00 USDT.
Backtest the historical data of ETH according to this trading strategy, and the backtest result is as follows:
Backtesting Result Analysis
In general, the ETH Bollinger Band trading strategy can capture OverboughtOversold signals to some extent, but there are also some shortcomings. Investors need to combine other technical indicators and Fundamental Analysis in actual operation, and strictly control the risk.