ETH Block on ETH price 'crazy bullish': groundbreaking research

Tim Robinson has announced groundbreaking simulation results indicating that the implementation of 'blobs' on Ethereum could have a significant Favourable Information on the long-term price of ETH. In a series of posts on X, Robinson emphasizes how blobs completely change the scalability and economic dynamics of Ethereum. 'Many people are debating Blob, but so far, no one has simulated how they respond to demand... until now,' Robinson said. 'In short: Blob is extremely beneficial for the long-term trend of ETH.'

The Blob introduced in Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP)-4844 is a large data structure designed to enhance network capacity by efficiently storing and processing off-chain data. This mechanism is crucial for layer 2 (L2) scaling solutions to offer lower transaction fees, while maintaining security through Ethereum's Consensus.

Robinson's simulation project shows that the Ethereum network has a transaction speed of 10,000 transactions per second (TPS), with an annual burn rate of 6.5% of its total ETH supply. The average cost of L2 transactions is $0.06. This scenario involves a blob of 16 MB for each Block, consistent with the mid-term goals outlined by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin in his latest post 'The Surge'.

"Yes, the Ethereum network runs at a speed of 10,000 transactions per second, consuming 6.5% per year, while the average cost of L2 transactions is $0.06, and each Block has a 16 MB blob," Robinson explained. "Do you think L2 is a parasite, and Vitalik hasn't thought this through? Ah, lovely summer child, you don't realize how crazy it will be when the Ethereum ecosystem truly kicks into high gear."

An important insight from Robinson's research is that as the usage of blobs increases, the amount of ETH destroyed increases rapidly. 'Interestingly, blobs go from being free to destroying a large amount of ETH at such a fast pace. It seems that almost everyone is unaware of this tipping point. This also makes me think that there may be better pricing mechanisms,' he observed.

Robinson provides a simulation tool that demonstrates that as the TPS expands from the current approximately 180 TPS to 400 TPS, the ETH destruction rate rises exponentially. The data shows that the destroyed ETH increases from about 4 ETH per day to 1,832 ETH per day.

By implementing PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling), the scalability potential is further enhanced, allowing blob capacity to scale with the number of validators. "Because the total blob capacity scales with the total number of validators, after implementing PeerDAS, blobs can scale as needed," Robinson explained. "There are 10k+ nodes sharing the load between them. While other ecosystems struggle under the load, Ethereum will provide the world with cheap, abundant block space, along with a strong deflationary currency."

One interesting feedback loop that Robinson discovered is the inverse relationship between ETH price and burn rate. 'Another interesting feedback loop is that the lower the ETH price, the higher the burn rate! As the trading price drops, the volume increases, and the burn rate soars,' he pointed out. 'Look at how different the burn rates are between ETH at $2000 and ETH at $10000'.

In response to the appreciation of ETH, Robinson said, "So how will ETH appreciate? As the most useful, most scarce, and deflationary asset, with over 10,000 teams using ETH to develop their products, ETH may achieve this. In the long run, ETH has the best fundamentals in the world; it just needs time to take effect."

This study has sparked enthusiasm and discussion within the ETH community. Mat (@materkel) commented on X, 'Once we reach blob capacity, it will be very interesting. I guess many L2s still need to figure out how to handle this situation and charge users correctly. There will be many inefficiency issues to solve; we didn't have multiple competing L2s in this scenario before. Once the dust settles, we will have proper price discovery for L2 fees and blobs on L1.'

Robinson responded, emphasizing the importance of proactive analysis: "Yes, absolutely! I am trying to provide data so that we can solve any problems before reaching our destination. As the blob increases, the market will become more stable, but in the early stages, fees may be very volatile."


(Data Source: Jake Simmons)