10.12 AI Daily Cryptocurrency market changes dramatically: BTC breaks through $63,000, leading the trend

一. Headlines

1. Bitcoin broke through the $63000 mark, triggering a new round of market frenzy

The BTC price broke through the $63,000 mark on October 12, triggering a new round of frenzy in the cryptocurrency market. Data shows that the 24-hour increase in BTC exceeded 6%, approaching $63,500 at one point. Analysts believe that this pump is mainly driven by Favourable Information that the U.S. inflation data is slightly higher than expected but within a controllable range.

Investors expect the Fed to slow down the pace of rate hikes, thereby providing a breathing space for risk assets. At the same time, the Biden administration has authorized all the personal security measures requested by Trump, alleviating some concerns in the market about the US election. In addition, the one-year credit default swap in the US has risen, reflecting the market's optimistic sentiment towards the economic outlook.

However, analysts have also warned that the US government may sell about 69,000 BTC seized in the "Silk Road" case, worth $4.2 billion, which may exert downward pressure on the BTC price. Overall, BTC is expected to continue fluctuating in the range of $59,000 to $65,000 in the short term, and the medium to long-term trend depends on further clarity of the macro situation.

2. Avalanche will repurchase AVAXToken sold by LFG to restore the ecosystem Crisis of Confidence

The Avalanche Foundation announced that it will repurchase 1.97 million AVAX Tokens previously sold to the Terra ecosystem's relief fund LFG to address the Avalanche ecosystem's Crisis of Confidence caused by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem.

The Avalanche Foundation stated in a statement that this is intended to "provide more guarantees for the Avalanche community and rebuild the community's confidence in Avalanche". LFG had purchased approximately 1 million AVAX Tokens for about $100 million in May 2022 as reserve assets for the Terra ecosystem. However, with the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May, LFG was forced to dump its cryptocurrency assets, including AVAX Tokens.

The Avalanche community is deeply concerned about this and believes that the Foundation's sale of tokens to LFG has seriously damaged the value of AVAXToken. The buyback is seen as a key step in rebuilding community trust. Analysts point out that this decision not only helps stabilize the AVAXToken price, but more importantly sends a signal to the community that the Avalanche Foundation values the health and ecological development of the token.

3. Uniswap Labs launches Layer 2 network Unichain, the aircraft carrier of Decentralized Finance, accelerating expansion

Uniswap Labs announced the launch of Unichain, a Layer 2 network based on Optimism, signaling the accelerated expansion of this Decentralized Finance flagship to Layer 2. Unichain will provide faster, cheaper transactions, and support new innovative applications.

Uniswap founder Hayden Adams said the launch of Unichain is to "address the congestion and high gas fees on the ETH Mainnet". Unichain will use optimistic rollup technology, enabling thousands of transactions per second, with gas fees being only a small part of the ETH Mainnet.

Analysts believe that the launch of Unichain will further consolidate Uniswap's leading position in the Decentralized Finance field. Layer 2 scaling solutions are seen as a key approach to Ethereum's scalability, and by introducing its own L2 network, Uniswap can provide users with a better experience, attracting more liquidity and innovative applications.

However, some also believe that the emergence of Unichain may diversify the Ethereum ecosystem and exacerbate the fragmentation of applications. In the future, how Unichain interoperates with the Ethereum mainnet and other L2 networks will be a question worth following.

4. Aptos ecology enters an explosive period, with daily trading volume reaching a new high of L1

The Aptos ecosystem will see an explosion in the third quarter of 2024, with daily volume reaching a new high on the L1 blockchain in September. According to Messari data, the daily average volume of Aptos rose by 474% in the third quarter, reaching 4.4 million transactions; the total value locked in Decentralized Finance rose by 123% to reach 75 million APT (approximately 603 million US dollars); and the daily volume rose by 189% to reach 30 million US dollars.

Analysts believe that the rapid development of the Aptos ecosystem is mainly due to its excellent performance, strong technical team background, and continuous ecological construction. As an emerging public chain that uses the Move language, Aptos has demonstrated outstanding scalability, composability, and has attracted a large number of deployments of innovative applications such as Decentralized Finance and GameFi.

Meanwhile, Aptos Foundation's continued investment has injected vitality into the ecosystem. In the third quarter, Aptos Foundation launched an ecosystem fund worth $507 million to fund developer communities and promote application innovation.

However, some analysts also pointed out that the current prosperity of the Aptos ecosystem is mainly concentrated in the Decentralized Finance field, while other tracks such as GameFi, SocialFi, etc. still need further development. Whether Aptos can maintain a good development momentum also requires the joint efforts of all parties in the ecosystem.

5. Sui ecosystem volume surges, on-chain daily transaction volume surpasses 100 million

The SUI ecosystem's on-chain daily transaction volume exceeded 100 million transactions for three consecutive days from October 5th to 7th, with October 5th setting a historical high of 117 million transactions, even surpassing Solana's single-day transaction record of 77 million transactions in May this year.

Analysts believe that the explosive growth of SUI ecosystem volume is mainly due to its excellent performance. As a brand new public chain targeting We.0, SUI adopts a variety of innovative technologies, such as parallel execution, object ownership, etc., greatly improving throughput and transaction speed.

Meanwhile, the SUI ecosystem has made significant progress in the fields of Decentralized Finance and GameFi. Data shows that GameFi Dapps within the SUI ecosystem account for more than 40% of the total, with transaction activity far surpassing other public chains. In addition, the addition of grayscale trusts and institutional-grade products such as Native USDC on SUI has brought new rise momentum to the SUI ecosystem.

However, some people believe that the current high volume of the Sui ecosystem may have some 'water', and further observation of its real user activity is needed. Whether Sui can maintain a good development still requires the joint efforts of all parties in the ecosystem.

2. Industry Data

1. BTC

Recent transaction price 60674.2000 US dollars, intraday decline -0.4000%.

2. USBT

Recently the transaction price was $0.0090, with an intraday increase of +49.6000%.

3. ETH

Recent transaction price 2407.1200 US dollars, intraday increase +0.5000%.

4. PEPE

Recently traded at 0.0000 USD, with a daily increase of +0.5000%.

5. GT

Recent transaction price is 9.0160 USD, with a daily decline of -0.6999%.

3. Industry News

1. Bitcoin broke through the $62500 mark, and investor sentiment turned optimistic

The price of BTC broke through the $62,500 mark in the past 24 hours and is currently quoted at $62,509.98, with a 3.62% increase in the past 24 hours. The pump in BTC price is mainly driven by the following factors:

First, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November is as high as 95.6%, and the market expects the Fed to further ease monetary policy, which is beneficial to the performance of risk assets. Secondly, US inflation data is slightly lower than expected, easing concerns about sustained inflation. In addition, the overall sentiment of the Cryptocurrency market has turned positive, and investors' expectations for the arrival of the Bull Market have increased.

The pump of BTC price in the short term is beneficial to boost market confidence and attract more funds into the Cryptocurrency market. However, analysts also warn that BTC may encounter certain resistance around $62,500, and investors need to closely follow the future price fluctuations. If BTC can effectively break through this level, it is expected to further test the $65,000 mark.

2. Decline in Ethereum ecosystem activity and intensified user loss

Despite being the second largest Crypto Asset, Ether has remained relatively stable in price over the past week, but its ecosystem activity has seen a significant decline. Data shows that the monthly active users of Ethereum have dropped from 30 million at the peak of the bull run to 1 million, with a staggering 80% user churn rate.

The main reason for the decline in the vitality of the Ethereum ecosystem is that a large number of Airdrop and Liquidity Mining activities have driven the false prosperity of Ethereum. Once the Airdrop ends, users leave one after another. In addition, the Ethereum ecosystem lacks truly valuable use cases, resulting in insufficient user stickiness.

Analysts point out that Ethereum needs to refocus on its original vision - to become a global computer and attract more users through powerful infrastructure. Otherwise, Ethereum may be further surpassed by its competitors.

3. The memes market is gradually maturing and institutional investors are increasing their layout.

After the recent ups and downs, the meme coin market has gradually matured and become a significant part of the cryptocurrency market. Meme coins capitalize on investors' extreme fear and greed, allowing savvy traders to earn substantial profits.

Institutions such as DWF Labs have long since institutionalized the investment in memes and made it a key focus. Analysts believe that despite the presence of some manipulation and fraud in the meme market, investors can still profit from it as long as they are cautious in their discernment.

However, the high risk of the memes market is also worth noting. Investors need to pay attention to identifying signs of abnormal price stability, sustained high volume, Depth order book, etc., in order to avoid the risk of manipulation. Overall, the memes market is gradually standardizing and developing, bringing more opportunities for investors.

Four. Project News

1. Sui network volume soared, breaking 100 million transactions in a single day

Recently, Sui's on-chain data has once again experienced a significant pump. From October 5th to 7th, the daily transaction volume of Sui exceeded 100 million transactions continuously. Among them, on October 5th, it reached 117 million transactions, breaking not only the historical record of the Sui network but also surpassing Solana's single-day record of 77 million transactions in May this year.

Sui is a new emerging public chain based on Move language, founded by former members of the Meta blockchain team. The network adopts a brand-new underlying architecture design, aiming to achieve high throughput, low latency, and scalability. The surge in Sui's volume is mainly due to the newly launched Decentralized Finance and Non-fungible Token projects in its ecosystem, such as CETUS, Navi, etc. The launch of these projects has attracted a large number of users to participate, promoting the overall activity of the Sui network.

Industry insiders believe that SUI's technological innovation has injected strong momentum into it. Its unique parallel execution model and Sharding architecture are expected to address the scalability challenges faced by traditional blockchains. In addition, the security and composability of the Move language have also laid a solid foundation for the development of the SUI ecosystem. If SUI can continue to maintain its activity and attract more high-quality projects to settle in, it is expected to become a new star in the public chain field in the future.

However, some analysts are concerned about the sustainable development of SUI. Currently, most of the main projects in the SUI ecosystem are still in the early stage, and the real user base and usage scenarios are yet to be observed. In addition, SUI also faces fierce competition from other public chains. Whether SUI can stand out in the future still needs to be tested over time.

2. The Avalanche Foundation will repurchase AVAXToken sold to LFG

The Avalanche Foundation has announced that it has reached a protocol, and will repurchase all 1.97 million AVAX Tokens sold to the LUNA Foundation (LFG) in April 2022, and is currently awaiting approval from the bankruptcy court. This is to ensure that LFG does not violate the original protocol's restrictions on Token usage, and to protect the Tokens from the complexity of bankruptcy trustee liquidation.

The buyback was prompted by last year's collapse of the Terra ecosystem. At that time, LFG, as the reserve currency foundation of the Terra ecosystem, purchased 1.97 million AVAX tokens from the Avalanche Foundation for $180 million. However, with the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, LFG also entered bankruptcy proceedings. To prevent the AVAX tokens from being forcibly disposed of by the court, the Avalanche Foundation decided to proactively repurchase them.

On the one hand, this move is conducive to maintaining the price stability of AVAXToken and avoiding the market impact caused by a large amount of dumping of tokens. On the other hand, it also reflects the Avalanche Foundation's emphasis on and determination to the ecological development. Industry insiders believe that this repurchase behavior will enhance investors' confidence in the Avalanche ecosystem.

However, some analysts have questioned the cost of the buyback. Due to the significant pump in the price of AVAXToken since the purchase, the buyback cost could be as high as several billion US dollars. Whether this enormous expenditure is worthwhile remains to be seen over time. Overall, the move by the Avalanche Foundation aims to maintain ecosystem stability, but also highlights its high regard for the core position of AVAXToken in the ecosystem.

3. ApeCoin DAO proposal to dissolve four working groups

According to the information on the Snapshot governance page, ApeCoin DAO has initiated proposal AIP-466, aiming to close non-essential working groups. It is expected that four working groups, including the governance working group, marketing and communications working group, metaverse working group, and We development working group, will be closed. The voting end date for this proposal is October 17th, with the current approval rate at 98.19%.

ApeCoin is a governance and utility Token of Decentralization, launched by Yuga Labs, the company behind the well-known Non-fungible Token project Bored Ape Yacht Club. ApeCoin DAO, composed of Token holders, serves as the governing and decision-making body of the Token. The purpose of this proposal is to optimize the operational efficiency of the DAO by shutting down some working groups to save expenses.

The proposer believes that the functions of the four working groups mentioned above are no longer in line with the current development needs of the DAO, and continuing to operate them would result in a waste of funds. Instead, concentrating the funds on other more important areas such as product development and community construction would be more beneficial for the long-term development of the ApeCoin ecosystem.

Industry insiders generally believe that this move reflects the self-adjustment of ApeCoin DAO in terms of governance efficiency and fund utilization. As a decentralized organization, DAO needs to continuously optimize its own architecture according to development needs. The decision to close some working groups may affect the operation of DAO in the short term, but in the long run, it will be beneficial to improve fund utilization efficiency.

However, some analysts have expressed concerns about this. They believe that this move may affect the diversified development of the ApeCoin ecosystem and make it too focused on the core product line. At the same time, due to the overlap of the functions of the working group, the closure may affect the normal operation of the DAO. Overall, although ApeCoin DAO's move is aimed at improving efficiency, its impact remains to be further observed.

五. Economic Dynamics

1. The Fed's Rate Hike Pace Slows as Inflation Pressure Persists

Economic background: The U.S. economy experienced sustained inflationary pressure in 2022. According to the latest data, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in the United States rose by 5.1% year-on-year in September, higher than the 4.9% in August. Although the inflation rate has eased, it is still far above the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. At the same time, the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for the third quarter in the United States was 2.6%, an improvement from the -0.6% in the previous quarter, but the risk of economic slowdown still exists.

Important event: The Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point increase in the federal funds Intreest Rate target range to 3.75%-4% at its monetary policy meeting on November 2. This is the Fed's fourth consecutive large rate hike, aimed at curbing persistent inflation. However, compared to previous rate hikes, the Fed's pace of this increase has slowed, indicating a gradual shift toward a more moderate monetary policy stance.

Market reaction: The Fed's decision to raise interest rates is in line with market expectations, and investors have gained confidence in the Fed's continued efforts to curb inflation. US stocks briefly pumped after the meeting but then gave back some gains. In the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond briefly surpassed 4.1%. The US dollar index edged higher, reflecting the market's expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Fed.

Expert view: Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the Fed's slowing pace of interest rate hikes reflects its concerns about economic slowdown. He expects the Fed to end its rate-hiking cycle in the first half of 2023, when the federal funds Intrerest Rate target range will reach 4.75%-5%. Citigroup, on the other hand, believes that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2023 to address the risk of an economic recession.

Six. Regulation & Policy

1. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission has once again delayed its decision on the SpotETH ETF options

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is responsible for regulating the securities market and maintaining fair and orderly operation of the Capital Market. Recently, the SEC has delayed making a decision on the proposed rule changes that would allow exchanges to list Options related to several popular Spot Ether ETFs.

The background of the SEC's decision to postpone is that the Cryptocurrency market is still in its early stages of development, with high regulatory risks and investor protection issues. The SEC has always been cautious about the Cryptocurrency market, hoping to ensure sufficient transparency and regulatory measures in place before approving related financial products.

According to documents, the SEC has postponed the deadline for the ruling from October 19 to December 3. The move is aimed at giving the SEC more time to assess the impact of the rule change on investor protection and public interest. The SEC needs to ensure that the cryptocurrency market has sufficient regulation and transparency before approving the listing and trading of relevant financial products.

Market participants have mixed reactions to the SEC's decision. Supporters believe that the decision to delay reflects the SEC's emphasis on investor protection and is beneficial to the long-term healthy development of the cryptocurrency market. However, some people are concerned that excessive caution will hinder the launch of innovative products and limit investors' choices.

Cryptocurrency analyst James Seyffart said that BTCETF options are likely to be launched in the first quarter of 2025 in the United States. He believes that the SEC is carefully evaluating the risks and regulatory requirements of the Cryptocurrency market to ensure that the interests of investors are fully protected.

2. The director of the Digital Money Research Institute of the People's Bank of China elaborates on the operational architecture of digital RMB

Mu Changchun, the director of the Digital Money Institute of the People's Bank of China, recently wrote an article to elaborate on the operational architecture and application prospects of the digital RMB. As a pioneer of the legal Digital Money, the development of the digital RMB has been widely followed globally.

Mu Changchun pointed out that the digital RMB, through a dual-layer operational framework, combines on-chain and value models, and achieves a unified ledger through data empowerment. Under the account model, the digital RMB can be integrated and interconnected with the traditional banking account system; under the value model, the digital RMB can exchange value in the form of a currency string, providing intelligent payments on-chain and offline extreme scenarios such as "offline" and "no electricity".

The application scenarios of digital RMB will expand from retail to wholesale, from payment to inclusive of broad financial services such as deposit, loan, exchange, investment, etc. Digital RMB adopts modular design, which can flexibly connect with overseas Central Bank infrastructure, achieving "one communication for all" with the connected jurisdictions.

Industry insiders believe that the development of digital RMB will promote the modernization of financial infrastructure, improve cross-border payment efficiency, and promote the internationalization of RMB. However, analysts also remind that in the process of promoting the application of digital RMB, attention should be paid to privacy protection and risk prevention.

Financial technology expert Zhang Xianzhen said that the dual-layer operation architecture of digital RMB is conducive to balancing the account system and the advantages of Crypto Assets, leaving space for future financial innovation. However, in specific applications, attention should still be paid to technical security and user experience.

3. The US Securities and Exchange Commission files a class action lawsuit against Coinbase

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently filed a collective lawsuit against Coinbase Global, Inc., accusing the company and some of its executives of securities fraud or other illegal business activities.

As the regulatory agency of the US securities market, the SEC is responsible for maintaining fair and orderly market operations and protecting the rights and interests of investors. This lawsuit reflects the SEC's increasing regulatory efforts on Cryptocurrencyexchange.

According to the lawsuit, the SEC accused Coinbase of making significant misrepresentations and concealing the true nature of its business practices and revenue sources in its April 2021 Initial Public Offering. The SEC believes that Coinbase failed to fully disclose its practice of earning fees by listing encrypted assets, as well as its role and risks in encrypted asset trading.

Coinbase denies SEC's allegations, stating that the company has always been committed to compliance with relevant regulations. However, the SEC believes that Coinbase's actions violate the anti-fraud provisions of securities laws and harm the interests of investors.

This lawsuit has sparked widespread follow and discussion within the industry. Supporters believe that the SEC's actions will help strengthen the regulation of Crypto Assets exchanges and maintain market order. However, some are concerned that excessive regulation will stifle industry innovation and hinder the development of the Cryptocurrency market.

Cryptocurrency legal expert John Olson said that the SEC's move is aimed at establishing clearer regulatory rules for Cryptocurrency exchange to protect the rights and interests of investors. However, it still requires further discussions between the industry and regulatory agencies on how to balance regulation and innovation.