Bitcoin market analysis

Today, we will focus on one topic: Bitcoin sets new records and prepares for seven consecutive gains. Since September 1, 2023, Bitcoin has been on an upward trend, and has not fallen in a single month to the monthly line level. There are now two days left until the end of the month, and unless Bitcoin falls below $61,000, it will be on a seven-month winning streak. The rally broke the 2021 bull run record. Starting from the fourth month, the monthly level has shown an upward lead, showing strong momentum in the upward process. In the end, the Bitcoin price hardened to $65,000. Since September 1, Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive months, with almost no signs of decline except for a long upper shadow line in January.

Next, we’ll explore Bitcoin’s potential top from a technical analysis perspective. In addition to the K-line pattern, we will also use the Fibonacci extension ratio, that is, the theory of AB=CD. Pulling up from the starting point of the previous bull market to a 1:1 extension ratio, we can see that the top is approximately $81,000. Therefore, there is a technical basis for many people to believe that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $80,000. In addition, if the current pattern is a consolidating head and shoulders bottom pattern, using a 1:1 box breakout extension, we will find that $81,380 is exactly the same as the Fibonacci extension ratio, which is worthy of our attention.

But I will also look at the weekly close for the coming week. If Bitcoin continues to rise, I would expect it to maintain its current trend. Historically, if there is a long lead at the weekly level after breaking through a new high, there will usually be consolidation for about two weeks, and then continue to rise. However, it should be noted that if a false breakthrough occurs, it may be a signal that medium and long-term investors need to be wary of. According to Bitcoin’s Greed and Fear Index, once an extreme level of greed is reached, the market will tend to retrace if it lasts for about 40 days. At present, Bitcoin has been in a state of extreme greed for about 30 days, so Bitcoin may still rise in the future, but if there is a peak retracement at the weekly level, you need to be careful about a possible market correction.