Bitcoin: Analysts Unfazed By Drop, But Should We Fear October 5?

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Despite the green September close, Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the market faced another bloodbath as October started. The flagship crypto saw a 7% decline, fueling a bearish sentiment among investors. However, most analysts remain optimistic about BTC’s performance in the next three months.

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Is This The ‘Shakeout Before Breakout’?

The market began the month of October, popularly known as “Uptober” by the crypto community, with the first shakeout of the quarter, losing 6.5% of its market capitalization. Most cryptocurrencies in the top 100 saw a considerable price drop, registering green numbers in the daily and weekly timeframes.

The bleeding was led by Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, as its price nosedived below the $61,000 support zone, a range not seen in nearly two weeks. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East seemingly fueled the downturn, as the drop followed the news of an Iranian missile strike on Israel.

The news spiked an investors’ selloff, which ended the BTC spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) 8-day inflow streak and triggered the liquidation of over $526 million in leveraged positions in the last 24 hours.

Nonetheless, many industry watchers remain unfazed by the market shakeout, noting that the month has just started. In a series of X posts, crypto analyst Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin started its second leg higher during October in the past bull years.

He explained that BTC’s price historically breaks out in the second or third week of the month, so the first week retrace could be the “final shakeout before new highs.” Moreover, he highlighted that the flagship crypto recently made the first higher high in 6 months and reclaimed the key resistance level above $60,000.

Jelle also noted that BTC made a higher low on October 1, holding the $60,000 support zone and retesting its strength above the $61,000 mark. The analyst considers that “It’s time for this descending broadening wedge to start playing out,” reasserting his previous target of $90,000.

Bitcoin’s performance in the weekly chart. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView## Analyst Warns About Bitcoin ‘Fifth-Day Plunge’

Other analysts also shared their views on the market shakeout. Altcoin Sherpa highlighted that “the last time we saw this much compression with 1d EMAs was September 2023, right before the market skyrocketed.”

Meanwhile, DonAlt expressed a more cautious approach, stating that Bitcoin could look “much worse” considering the circumstances, but suggested waiting for the weekly close would be best to conclude.

Nonetheless, trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has “bottomed/topped at basically the same time” since June. Per the post, on the fifth day of each month, BTC’s price has registered a massive correction, except for September, when it occurred on the sixth day.

BTC’s monthly “fifth-day plunge”. Source: Daan Crypto Trades On X

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During the Q3 retraces, BTC registered daily red candles ahead of the fifth-day plunge. The price recorded a 16.3%, 25%, and 11% decline in July, August, and September from the beginning of each month until the end of the first-week shakeout.

If the pattern repeated this month, investors could see BTC’s price dropping below the recently reclaimed $60,000 support level and test the strengths of lower key support zones. However, it would also mean that the flagship cryptocurrency would potentially recover by the start of the second week.

As of this writing, BTC is trading at $61,466, a 2% drop in the last 24 hours.