Bitcoin experienced these in the last 10 New Year's Eves: Will history repeat itself this year? - Coin Bulletin

The price movement of Bitcoin's last 10-year New Year's Eve can help with predictions for this year.

Bitcoin (BTC), falling to its lowest level since the end of November, has dashed hopes of the traditional 'Santa Claus rally' seen in previous years that usually follows market peaks.

On the evening of December 23, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $92,442, the lowest level in the past four weeks, and experienced a correction of 14.5% from the all-time high of $108,000 on December 17.

Although it briefly recovered and regained $95,000, it was seen that it fell back to $94,000 on the morning of December 24th. Bitcoin's loss in the past week exceeded 11%.

What did the Bitcoin price experience at the end of last year? ###

According to historical data, cryptocurrency markets generally show positive performance during bull seasons and holiday periods. However, this year, Bitcoin's poor December, which eliminated expectations of a price increase known as the 'Christmas rally,' from the end of December to the beginning of January.

Crypto trader Mister Crypto evaluated the performance of Bitcoin during the holiday season in previous years and noted that there were significant rallies between Christmas and New Year between 2016 and 2020. These years were periods before the peak of market cycles.

According to a study published by CoinGecko on Dec. 13, between 2014 and 2023, crypto markets experienced 10 "Christmas rallies" in the post-Christmas period, with the total market capitalization increasing between 0.7% and 11.8%.

The said periods generally cover a one-week period between December 27 and January 2.

However, there was no rally after the market cycle peak in 2021. Bitcoin experienced a drop of approximately 26% from its peak of $69,000 on Christmas day of that year, and this decline continued throughout 2022.

Experts emphasized that 2021 is a cycle peak year, but it is expected that 2025 will be a new cycle peak year. This prediction is based on the pattern showing that Bitcoin has been moving with four-year cycles since its inception.

It is estimated that the volatility in the crypto markets may increase due to the expiration of approximately 18 billion dollars of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts on December 27.

On the other hand, Bitcoin's social sensitivity dropped to the lowest level of the year on December 22. This situation is considered as a possible signal of recovery.