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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (11.07 - 11.14)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of Digital Money reached $2.53 trillion, a rise of 0.54% compared to the previous period. The exchange volume decreased by 34.74% compared to the previous period, reaching $14.335 billion. BTC dominance is 59.56%, up 0.28% compared to the previous period. The overall market shows a slight upward trend, but the volume has decreased. In the meme zone, individual currencies have risen sharply, such as PNUT, which has been mentioned multiple times by Musk.
The fear and greed index today is 75, and the market sentiment is "greedy". Compared with yesterday, the index has slightly decreased, but the overall market sentiment is still optimistic.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
According to the latest data, global economic conditions and changes in monetary policy have had a significant impact on the Crypto Assets market. The US October CPI rose by 7.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 7.9%, but lower than the previous value of 8.2%, indicating some easing of inflationary pressures. The initial value of the Eurozone October CPI was 1.5% month-on-month, higher than the expected 1.2%, and rose by 10.6% year-on-year, reaching a record high. The Federal Reserve's November Interest Rate decision maintained the Interest Rate in the range of 4.50%-4.75%, in line with market expectations. CME data shows that the market expects the Fed to raise rates by another 25 basis points to the 4.75%-5.00% range in December, with a probability of 63.8%.
Overall, inflationary pressures have eased but remain elevated. The Fed will continue to raise interest rates to contain inflation expectations, which may put some pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrency. However, the Trump administration is expected to promote regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency, which is beneficial for the industry in the long run.
1.3 Economic Calendar
Analysis:
The US October CPI data is one of the most important economic data this week, which will reflect whether the inflation pressure continues to ease. The market expects the CPI annual rate to further decrease from 2.40% in September.
The September ILO unemployment rate data in the UK will show the condition of the UK labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at a low level.
The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will reflect the economic outlook for the Eurozone. Due to the dual pressures of inflation and energy crisis faced by the European economy, the index is expected to be lower than last month's level.
US October PPI data will reflect producer price inflation pressure. Market expectations are for a further decline in PPI annual rate from 1.80% in September.
US retail sales data for October will reflect consumer spending. Due to easing inflation pressure and a stable job market, retail sales are expected to remain moderately rise.
In general, this week's major economic data will focus on areas such as inflation, employment, and consumer spending. These data will provide important references for the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
2. Analysis of Fundamentals and Price Fluctuation
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Weekly Volatility The weekly volatility of BTC is 3.21%, calculated using the standard deviation of the daily Closing Price over the past week.
Price changes and reasons
This week, the price of BTC pumped 10.32%, reaching a high of $76,832.70. The main reason is that Trump won the 2024 US presidential election, and the market expects him to implement crypto-friendly policies, thereby driving up the price of BTC.
volume changes and impacts The average daily volume of BTC this week increased by 23.45% compared to last week. The increase in trading activity reflects the market's optimistic sentiment towards the future prospects of BTC, which is beneficial for further price pump.
Market activity and potential price direction
The fear and greed index of BTC reached 70 this week, belonging to the "greed" range, indicating that the market sentiment is overly optimistic. In the short term, BTC prices may experience a pullback, but the medium to long-term bullish trend will continue.
2.2. Fund Analysis
According to the fund flow data, this week's net inflows of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have increased. This indicates a high market activity, and investors remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency market.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a wave of Favourable Information. Institutional investors expect the Trump administration to introduce crypto-friendly regulatory policies, thereby accelerating the inflow of institutional funds into the cryptocurrency market.
Meanwhile, retail investors are also Buy the Dips, expecting the Trump administration to bring new development opportunities for Crypto Assets. Fund flow data shows a significant increase in net inflows of popular Tokens such as DOGE this week.
Overall, after Trump was elected, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a favorable funding environment, and investors had high expectations for the future. However, there is also some uncertainty in the market, and investors need to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
The flow of smart money often indicates the market trend. By analyzing the changes in large orders and Trading Volume, we can gain insight into the movement of institutional funds.
BTC（BTC） In recent weeks, the large transaction volume of BTC has shown a rising trend, indicating that institutional funds are flowing in. This means that long positions dominate, and there is considerable pump pressure in the future.
Ethereum (ETH) Similar to BTC, the large single Trading Volume of ETH is also increasing, but the increase is relatively small. This indicates that institutional demand for ETH has increased, but compared to BTC, the inflow of funds is relatively weak.
Summary In general, smart money is flowing into the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC. This indicates that long positions will dominate in the short term. However, the inflow of funds into ETH lags behind, and the pump momentum may be less than BTC.
3. Hot Topics
According to the provided data, the most frequently discussed hot topic in the past week is the election of Trump as the President of the United States and its impact on the Crypto Assets industry. Here are the related special reports:
Trump's election sets off the Cryptocurrency market, and BTC is expected to break the $100,000 mark
Trump's victory triggers a cryptocurrency zone outbreak, and the BTC price hits a new high again
Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has sparked a frenzy in the cryptocurrency market. After the news came out, the price of BTC surged straight up, breaking through the historical high of $76,677 at one point. According to relevant data, BTC has pumped 8% in the past seven days. In addition, AltCoins have also experienced a general rise, with BTC dominance (BTC.D) falling over 2% in the past 8 hours, currently reported at 59.77%.
SatoshiActionFund co-founder Dennis Porter stated on the X platform, "Currently, more than 250 members of the U.S. Congress support BTC." Trump has previously stated that he will dismiss SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office, supporting BTC and Cryptocurrency, including establishing a national BTC reserve, supporting American mining, and lifting regulations on Cryptocurrency.
Analysts are optimistic about the future prospects of Bitcoin, with a price of $100,000 just around the corner.
CoinShares research director JamesButterfill said, "This week Trump won the presidential election, and the Republican Party gained a new majority in the Senate, which may make it easier for the expected loose regulatory framework to pass. So it is possible for the price of BTC to rise to $100,000 (meaning 33% pump space) now."
Copper.co's research director FadiAboualfa believes that "by January 20, 2025, when Trump takes office as president, the price of BTC is likely to reach $100,000." He explained: "Trump witnessed two historical high cycles during his presidency from 2016 to 2020. Although these increases occurred against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, which is different from the current environment of a strengthening dollar. However, given that BTCSpotETF currently holds about 1.1 million BTC, the momentum in the coming months may remain positive."
Famous trader ** Peter Brandt ** is also boldly predicting that BTC may reach a high point of $130,000 to $150,000 in the current Bull Market, and is expected to peak around August or September 2025. He explained: "My cycle measurement method is different from most people, and the Halving cycle of BTC often creates symmetric time patterns in the Bull Market. If this trend continues, the high point of this Bull Market cycle may be in the range of $130,000 to $150,000."
AltCoin frenzy, DOGE price is highly followed
In addition to Bitcoin, the price performance of shitcoin and other altcoins has also attracted market follow. Cryptocurrency analyst AliMartinez predicts, "The price of shitcoin may reach $23 in this Bull Market." He explains that in past Bull Market cycles, once DOGE broke the $0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, it often pumped to the 1.618 or even 2.272 Fibonacci levels.
Martinez also mentioned that with Elon Musk now influencing Trump, the price of DOGE may experience a wild Fluctuation. Musk is a supporter of DOGE, and if he continues to push forward his "Department of Government Efficiency" (D.O.G.E) proposal, he will play an important role in the Trump administration.
Another analyst DimaJames confirmed that the expected DOGE price pump to $10 is still in progress. He pointed out that to confirm the breakout and initiate a parabolic rise, DOGE needs to exceed $0.18 in Closing Price this week.
4. Main Events
Major Event Review
Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Trump has expressed his intention to establish a strategic BTC reserve and support the development of the digital asset industry. Many institutions expect that Trump's presidency will promote the introduction of cryptocurrency-friendly regulations, and mainstream currencies such as BTC are expected to continue to benefit in the next 8 weeks. In addition, Trump's policies may weaken the US dollar, which is beneficial to safe-haven assets such as BTC.
Affected by Trump's victory, Meme coin zone saw a general rise on the 7th. Data shows that Meme coins such as LUCE and PNUT rose by over 60% on that day. Analysts believe that after the Trump administration takes office, Meme coins may attract more followers, and investor sentiment is expected to further heat up. However, some analysts remind that Meme coin investment carries higher risks and requires cautious operation.
The ETH zone of the Ethereum ecosystem performed well on the 7th, with several popular currencies seeing double-digit gains. Data shows that ENA, OP, EIGEN, and other currencies all rose more than 10% on the same day. Analysts pointed out that the ETH zone of the Ethereum ecosystem has a clear resonance effect with BTC, and Trump's victory is good news for the overall cryptocurrency market.
The stock prices of encryption-related companies in the US have surged collectively in pre-market trading on the 7th. Data shows that the stock prices of TSL, MARA, and other companies have risen by more than 10% before the market opens. Analysts believe that investors have high expectations for the Trump administration's support for the cryptocurrency industry, and encryption stocks are being sought after by capital.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse called on the Trump administration to quickly reshape US cryptocurrency regulation on social media. He suggested firing SEC Chairman Gensler and pushing for the passage of the digital asset market structure bill in the Senate. Analysts believe that improving the regulatory environment will be favorable information for the long-term development of the cryptocurrency industry.
Data shows that the net inflow of funds for the 7-day US BTC Spot ETF reached 623 million US dollars. Analysts pointed out that investors have high expectations for the future of BTC, and the Spot ETF's ability to attract funds has increased.
On the 7th, the price of the privacy computing public chain ALEO rose by over 40%. Analysts believe that the recent technological advancements of ALEO and the continuous heating up of the concept of privacy computing are the main reasons.
On the morning of the 6th, the stock prices of many encryption-related companies rose more than 10%. Analysts pointed out that investors are full of expectations for the Trump administration's support for the cryptocurrency industry.
The Aleo Chinese community has written an open letter questioning a16z's lawsuit against the original Aleo team. Analysts believe that the poor performance of the Aleo mainnet has raised doubts in the community.
Flux enforced the upgrade to FluxOS 5.31.0 on the 6th. The new version optimized the application installation logic, etc.
Eigenlayer unlocked approximately 690,000 EIGEN Tokens on the 5th, accounting for approximately 0.69% of the circulating supply.
Jupiter deprecated its old limit order endpoint on the 5th, which may affect users who have not upgraded.
Astar announced the launch of asynchronous support upgrade, which has been successfully applied to the Shibuya network and is expected to be applied to Astar and Shiden as well.
Dione released a complete roadmap on the 4th, covering rise, marketing, etc.
Memecoin unlocks approximately 4.49 billion MEME tokens on the 3rd, accounting for approximately 17.93% of the circulation.
5. Global Policies
The following is a list of new political developments, economic policies or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry, as well as an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market, based on the news from November 1 to November 8, 2024.
Trump Elected President of the United States
Political Dynamics
Impact Analysis
The Trump administration is expected to bring a favorable information policy environment for the cryptocurrency industry.
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Policy
Economic Policies
Impact Analysis
The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy will have a certain impact on the Crypto Assets market:
Summary
The new policies and regulatory environment brought by the Trump administration and the adjustment of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve will bring a new era for the Crypto Assets industry. Although there may be some Fluctuation in the short term, in the long run, it is beneficial for the healthy development of the Crypto Assets market, injecting new vitality into the industry. Investors need to be patient, closely follow the policy direction, and carefully grasp investment opportunities.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendation
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Investing involves risks, so please be cautious when entering the market.
6.2 Investment Strategy
Hot Token Analysis
This week's popular tokens include memes such as PEPE, SHIB, and DOGE. As a newly listed meme coin, PEPE is popular among US users and its price has pumped 13%. SHIB and DOGE, on the other hand, have received funding after Trump's election, with a pump of 2% and 9% respectively. The trend of these meme coins reflects the market's optimistic expectations for Trump's policies.
Trading Bot Strategy Analysis
This week, the trading robots' strategies have been active, especially the contract grid and Spot Martin strategy have high yield. The contract grid strategy profits handsomely by setting grid buy and sell prices in a high Fluctuation market. The Spot Martin strategy continues to profit by buying in batches in pump market. Overall, high-risk and high-yield quantitative strategies have performed outstandingly in this week's market.
Summary
After Trump's election, the market's expectation of his close monetary policy has boosted the trend of Meme coins. At the same time, high-risk, high-yield quantitative trading strategies have also gained considerable returns in this week's market. Investors can cautiously grasp the investment opportunities based on their risk preferences.
6.3. Financial Management Products
Simple Earn Earn interest on your balance, withdraw at any time, Interestcompound interest. Total Funds(USDT): 1.11 billion USDT近7天Annual Percentage Rate: 4.36% + 8.87%
Simple Earn helps match users with idle assets and borrowing needs. After purchasing Simple Earn, the system will determine whether the borrowing is successful and the Intrerest Rate for that hour based on the user's set lending Intrerest Rate and actual borrowing needs every hour.
Wealth Management Treasure The first income starts here! Low threshold, high security, high yield. Licai Bao is a one-stop comprehensive financial service center established by Gate.io Finance, including current, fixed-term, and other financial products. It provides users with hundreds of types of Digital Money financial products.
Structured Financial Management A new type of financial product that combines fixed income with financial derivatives such as Options. Gate.io structural wealth management is a new financial product based on a combination of fixed income and financial derivatives such as Options. Generally, it is determined by the relationship between the performance of the underlying asset during the investment period and the specified trigger price to determine the level of Settlement return, and can be divided into two types: principal-guaranteed and aggressive.
4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party, which may be delayed and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Before making any investment decisions, please conduct due diligence and assume the risk on your own.
6.4. Technical Analysis
ETH Bollinger Band Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands is a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential Overbought or Oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This strategy adopts the following trading rules:
The initial capital is 100,000.00 USDT.
Backtest the historical data of ETH according to this trading strategy, and the backtest results are as follows:
Backtest Results Analysis
Advantages
Disadvantages There is a certain lag and some trading opportunities may be missed.
Overall, the ETH Bollinger Band trading strategy can capture overbought and oversold signals to some extent, but there are also some flaws. Investors need to combine other technical indicators and Fundamental Analysis in practical operations, and strictly control risks.