Daily Summary in the Crypto World: US Spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by 526 BTC yesterday; The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in August is 91.2%; The US unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data will be released this Friday.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is 34.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 59.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.

The minting volume of USDT on Ethereum and Tron has dropped from 7 billion US dollars to 1 billion US dollars in the past 6 months.

Arthur Hayes said in a post that the new inflation cycle has arrived and Bitcoin will be the best safe haven for wealth.

According to CryptoQuant's data and analyst views, Bitcoin's computing power has dropped to the lowest level since the FTX crash in December 2022, currently at -7.6%, indicating that the Bitcoin price may have bottomed out. Other indicators such as exchange reserves and miner position index also show low selling pressure, supporting the view of a market bottom.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, on July 1st, the data of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF showed that BlackRock increased its holdings of approximately 1366 bitcoins, worth about 85.9 million US dollars; Grayscale reduced its holdings of 198 bitcoins, worth about 12.4 million US dollars; a total of 9 Bitcoin ETFs increased their holdings by 526 bitcoins, worth about 33 million US dollars.

In June, the trading volume of BTC and ETH futures contracts decreased by 19.9% and 23.8%, respectively.

CoinShares' latest weekly report shows that digital asset investment products saw outflows for the third consecutive week last week, totaling $30 million.

Starknet Foundation will allocate an additional 50 million STRK to the DeFi Spring 2.0 plan, bringing the total budget to 90 million STRK. DeFi protocols can apply to join DeFi Spring and enhance protocol liquidity to earn additional income.

FET opened the first phase of ASI token merger plan with AGIX & OCEAN at 23:00 yesterday.

The first stage TRIAS migration of the AI ecosystem project Trias has ended, and the TRIAS BSC contract upgrade is about to begin, which is expected to be completed in 1-2 weeks.

The operator of Japan's Web3 media CoinPost, the Japan Web3 Association, announced that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will deliver a speech at the international Web3 conference WebX, planned and organized by the WebX Executive Committee.

Japanese listed company Metaplanet stated on the X platform that it has purchased an additional 20.20 BTC.

The U.S. listed company Kronos Advanced Technologies announced its support for SHIB payment method.

Market Analysis: BTC rebounded to $63,000 but was resisted, and altcoins fluctuated greatly in price.

Market Trend:

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly last weekend, breaking through the downtrend line and MA60 suppression at the 4H level, but this trend could not be maintained this week and was blocked and adjusted when it approached around $63,000-$64,000.

From a technical perspective, the upward target is still expected to rise to around $64,500. However, given the current upward gap in CME futures, Bitcoin's upward momentum is still insufficient. Based on past experience, Bitcoin is expected to continue searching for support.

It is worth mentioning that the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI announced last night was 48.5, expected 49.1, and the previous value was 48.7. The data is lower than expected and the previous value, which is a small positive for the encryption market. At present, the short-term downside macro risks are not significant.

In terms of fund flow, the US spot ETF has shown a net inflow of funds for the past 5 consecutive trading days, with an increase of 596 bitcoins and 526 bitcoins in the last two days, indicating a slight improvement in market sentiment. However, caution should still be exercised regarding the repayment of bitcoin debts by Mt.Gox starting this month and the downward pressure from the German government's sale.

In summary, regardless of the macro background or micro-trends, Bitcoin lacks the conditions for a significant rise or fall, and may maintain a certain trend of adjustment in the short term, and the long-term prospects are still optimistic.

Market Hotspots:

1. Ethereum Zone: Spot Ethereum ETF is still a key driving factor for Ethereum and its zone tokens, with tokens such as ENS, SSV, LDO, UNI leading the rebound recently. According to the latest analysis, the expected listing date of Spot Ethereum ETF may be postponed from July 2nd to after July 8th. Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), recently stated that Spot Ethereum ETF is expected to be listed as early as September. Based on this timeline, the Ethereum zone is expected to remain strong for a while.
2. SocialFi Zone: The TON chain, supported by Telegram with billions of user traffic, has ushered in a major outbreak, especially the game Notcoin (NOT) that earns clicks, which has ignited a wave of MEME blockchain games. In July, Catizen tokens will be launched, and the SocialFi zone will continue to maintain a high market heat.
3. RWA Zone: Real World Asset (RWA) zone has dropped by -0.1% in the last 24 hours, which is a relatively resistant zone. The leading tokens in the MKR, ONDO, PENDLE, OM, and POLYX zones have dropped by -1.39%, -2.94%, -2.47%, 6.56%, and -5.29% respectively. RWA zone, along with DePIN, AI, L2, and others, is a new track that has emerged in this bull run. RWA projects carry the function of expanding the adoption of encryption technology and products in the real world, and have attracted attention from traditional market investors.
4. MEME zone: The MEME zone was the first to rebound strongly following the market, followed by a sharp decline, with a much larger volatility than other zones. Today's MEME is becoming more and more complex and perfect, no longer just an alternative for market overheating, even though various zones are generally declining today, there are still some counter-trend pumps such as WIF, BONK, PONK, DOG and other dog-themed MEMEs with 24H increases of 1.53%, 12.97%, 6.15% respectively.

Overall, the current macro liquidity environment in the encryption market has not improved. After experiencing a strong pump for 8 consecutive months, Bitcoin is currently in a wide-ranging oscillating trend. RWA, SocialFi, Ethereum, and other zones have maintained a relatively resistant trend, but the sustainability of the heat still needs to be observed. At present, capital speculation remains cautious, and the issuance of coins by some large projects such as Blast, zkSync, LayerZero has also sparked considerable controversy. In the context of a lack of wealth creation effect in the market, investors should remain cautious.

Macro: Economic Data and Elections Dance Together, Be Cautious About Interest Rate Expectations

Boosted by some short covering by investors, the US June ISM Manufacturing PMI data was weaker than expected, and the three major US stock indexes closed higher yesterday, with the Dow rising 0.13% and the S&P 500 rising 0.27%. Popular tech stocks performed well, with Tesla rising over 6%, Apple rising nearly 3%, Microsoft and Amazon rising over 2%. However, the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and US stocks weakened, and there was a slight pullback yesterday.

Next, the market is generally focusing on the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rates and a series of important economic data to be released soon. With a variety of macroeconomic data to be welcomed this week, especially the US non-farm employment data to be released this Friday is considered a key indicator for judging the health of the US economy, and is expected to provide more clues as to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

It is worth noting that despite the market's general expectation that the Fed may start a easing cycle in September, Fed officials remain cautious about the rate cut. They emphasize the need to closely monitor changes in inflation and the job market before deciding on a rate cut. In particular, although the recent slowdown in inflation data provides some room for a rate cut, the Fed is also concerned that an early rate cut may trigger new economic risks.

At the same time, the US presidential election has also become one of the focal points affecting the direction of financial policy. With the end of the first candidate television debate, Trump's average lead over Biden in national polls has sparked widespread discussion in the market. Trump's policy proposals, such as extending tax cuts, restricting immigration, and imposing tariffs on imported goods, are all considered to potentially push up US inflation levels. This expectation has put pressure on US bond yields. However, the recent fluctuating US economic data has also provided some buffering effect for the market, and there is still considerable flexibility in interest rate policy.

In short, the macro market this week will be full of variables and challenges. Investors need to closely monitor changes in factors such as the Federal Reserve's attitude towards interest rates, the release of important economic data, and the progress of the US presidential election. As for the cryptocurrency market, the SEC will probably respond to the Ethereum ETF this week. Although the possibility of direct approval is small, any favorable news may boost the overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. We will keep a close eye on this.

Author: Carl Y. This article represents only the author's opinion and does not constitute any trading advice. This article is original and the copyright belongs to Gate.io. If you need to reprint, please indicate the author and source, otherwise legal responsibilities will be pursued.