Daily News | Bitcoin Surged to Around $69,000, with Bullish Sentiment Recovering Quickly; Trump Expressed Positive Views on BTC at Bitcoin Conference

2024-07-29, 03:18

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## Crypto Daily Digest: The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced this Thursday, and the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%; Last Friday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF increased its holdings by 630 BTC
On Thursday, August 1, at 2:00 am Hong Kong time, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision. People expect Federal Reserve officials to keep the main interest rate unchanged this week. UBS believes the Federal Reserve's policy shift is imminent, with a basic forecast of a 25 basis point rate cut for the first time in September.

According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged this week is 95.9%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 87.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 11.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0.4%.
 
On July 26, nine US <a href="/id/price/<a href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">ethereum</a>-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_<a href="/id/price/link-ln" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">link</a>">Ethereum</a> ETFs reduced their holdings by 37,044 ETH, while <a href="/id/price/<a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">bitcoin</a>-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETFs increased their holdings by 630 BTC.
 
Vaneck predicts that Bitcoin's price will reach $2.9 million by 2050. The report indicates that Bitcoin can settle 10% of global international trade and 5% of domestic trade, with central banks holding 2.5% of assets in the form of BTC. Scalability challenges are worth noting, but the second-layer solution may enhance adoption rates.
 
The token,worth approximately $893 million, will be unlocked in August, followed by the release of <a href="/id/price/avalanche-avax" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Avalanche</a>, worth up to $268 million, and Wormhole, worth over $180 million.
 
According to tonscan data, the TON network currently stakes 677 million TON, accounting for 26.9% of the circulating supply (2.5165 billion TON). In addition, the current staked APY is 3.7%, and there are a total of 400 verification nodes in the network.
 
At the Bitcoin2024 conference, Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of Trump, stated that Bitcoin is a means of hedging against inflation and authoritarian governments.
  
The owner of Kabosu, the prototype of the Doge meme, <a href="/id/price/shiba-inu-shib" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Shiba Inu</a>, stated that they do not approve of any crypto projects other than Own The Doge.
 
BlackRock IBIT and Fidelity FBTC have been ranked among the top 10 ETFs in fund inflows this year, with the highest return rates.
 
According to Dune data, BLOCKLORDS once surpassed 250,000 daily active users on the Base chain, becoming one of the major games on the chain.

The NetX official website, built by the AI cloud computing infrastructure Trias ecosystem project, was officially launched on July 26. The NetX mainnet will soon be launched at the end of July.
 
EigenLayer, the Ethereum re-staking protocol, announced on the X platform that it will soon launch AVS (Active Verification Service) rewards and EIGEN programmatic incentives.

## Market Trends: BTC surged to around $69,000, indicating a rapid recovery of bullish sentiment in the market
Bitcoin (BTC) saw a moderate increase over the weekend, with daily, 4H, and 1H levels showing a bullish trend with moving averages. If this momentum continues this week, it is expected to hit the previous high of around $70,000 before being halted and rested.

From a purely technical perspective, Bitcoin has less than 8% of the space to reach its top high target above, but once it stabilizes at $73,000, the upper space will open up. However, based on past historical experience, Bitcoin still has a certain expectation of downward exploration and support adjustment considering the upward gap in CME futures this week and three daily level gaps.

From the perspective of capital <a href="/id/price/<a href="/price/flow-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">flow</a>-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">flow</a>, US spot ETFs have shown a continuous net inflow of funds in July, indicating a slight rebound in market sentiment. The market has gradually recovered from the panic caused by Mt.Gox's repayment of Bitcoin debt and the German government's sell-off.

It is worth mentioning that based on recent economic data, inflation is indeed cooling down. Powell, who used to tend to take action earlier, has been weighing the risks of premature interest rate cuts and waiting too long. The current situation indicates the Federal Reserve is beginning to lean towards faster interest rate cuts. Believing in improving macro liquidity will help stimulate further bullish sentiment in Bitcoin prices.

In summary, from a macro perspective, Bitcoin will still receive sufficient bullish momentum, but it may maintain a certain adjustment trend in the short term, and the long-term prospects for the future are still optimistic.
### Market Hotspots:
Payment sector: The Payment sector led the market slightly higher, with a 24-hour increase of 1.4%. <a href="/id/price/xrp-xrp" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">XRP</a>, BCH, LTC, and other leading sectors saw their respective gains of 1.07%, 6.18%, and 0.42%. These veteran tokens have a relatively low-key performance, and the sustainability of the hot topic rotation in this sector may need to be improved.

Layer1 sector: The current market value of the Layer1 sector isr 10.03%, with a 24-hour increase of 0.68%. <a href="/id/price/bnb-bnb" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">BNB</a>, SOL, ADA, TR,X and others have shown relatively strong performance.

MEME sector: Recently, the MEME sector has been the first to follow the strong market rebound. Although there have been ups and downs, the MEME sector has gradually improved, and there will always be some new MEMEs that rise against the trend. Currently, BOME, PONKE, MUMU, COQ, and other sectors have shown outstanding gains, with 24-hour gains of 5.9%, 16.7%, 12.9%, and 17.3%, respectively.

Overall, the current macro liquidity expectations in the <a href="/id/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a> have gradually improved. After experiencing seven consecutive months of strong gains, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with various sectors maintaining a speculative rotation. There is no evidence to suggest that there is currently a situation where the popularity of AI, DePIN, and In_script_ion continues to flood the screen like last year. At present, capital speculation is still cautious, and the market may be seeking iconic products that can ignite market trends. MEME mini-games on the TON chain are worth monitoring.

Overall, the current macro liquidity expectations in the crypto market have gradually improved. After experiencing seven consecutive months of strong gains, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a wide range of fluctuations, with various sectors maintaining a speculative rotation. There is no evidence to suggest that there is currently a situation where the popularity of AI, DePIN, and In_script_ion continues to flood the screen like last year. At present, capital speculation is still cautious, and the market may be seeking iconic products that can ignite market trends. MEME mini-games on the TON chain are worth focusing on.

## Macro: Bitcoin Conference welcomes Trump's speech, macro liquidity easing arrow on the line
Last week, the latest financial reports released by Google and Tesla were not satisfactory, which triggered speculation on the "bursting of the artificial intelligence foam" in the market, and increased volatility in the US stock market. Regarding price returns, last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.75%, the Nasdaq fell by 2.08%, and the S&P 500 index fell by 0.83%. However, the linkage between the crypto and the US stock markets further weakened, with a strong performance last week after a decline.

The recent 2024 Bitcoin Conference has attracted market attention. Trump delivered a speech at the convention expressing his positive views on Bitcoin, calling it a "miracle of cooperation and human achievement," and promising to take a series of measures to support the development of the crypto field if elected president, including establishing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, developing energy to reduce mining costs, and appointing the Bitcoin/Cryptocurrency Presidential Advisory Committee. He also predicted that the market value of Bitcoin would surpass that of gold in the future and promised to establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Amid speculation about possible changes to Trump's Bitcoin policy, the value of cryptocurrency surged to over $69,000 on Saturday.

However, it is worth mentioning that after Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, multiple related Trump concept coins experienced a general decline.

On the other hand, in the face of weak inflation data and overheated employment data, after weighing multiple factors, the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts has gradually become clear. The Federal Reserve is very cautious in its attitude towards employment data, hoping for a soft landing in the job market and maintaining high interest rates to suppress inflation. The June non farm payroll report aligns with the Federal Reserve's expected target, and market analysis generally believes that the Fed may cut interest rates in September. However, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma when deciding to cut interest rates: if the job market cools too quickly, the Fed may be forced to cut interest rates early to save non farm payroll and unemployment rates; If the job market remains hot, the Federal Reserve may need to continue extending its high interest rate policy.

Nevertheless, favorable inflation, cooling job markets, and changing considerations of dual risks are prompting the Federal Reserve to prepare for interest rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced this Thursday, and Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. The policy is expected to be further clarified.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Carl Y.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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