Daily News| The SEC may approve a spot Bitcoin ETF before January 10; Michael Saylor believes that Bitcoin will usher in a bull market

2023-12-20, 03:44

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##Crypto Express: Spot Bitcoin ETF  could receive authorization by January 10; this could herald the start of a bullish phase for Bitcoin.
On December 20, according to Cryptoslate, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said, “It is anticipated that by January 10, 2024, the SEC will have given the green light to a spot <a href="/id/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> ETF.  I consider the date as a deadline as it also represents a key time point  in Gary Gensler’s  litigation against GrayScale. If the approval is obtained before the date,   the market will still be required to wait an additional six months before the product can be traded."

Members of K33 Research have also conveyed their strong <a href="/id/price/optimism-op" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Optimism</a> about the likelihood of receiving approval. In their December 18th report, Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst, and Anders Helseth, the vice president at K33, indicated that recent amendments to the ETF application imply a high probability of it being approved "within the next three weeks." They specifically referred to the timeline as "fixed." The 'January 10' deadline was first brought to public attention by Bloomberg's ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, who back in October, assessed the odds at 90% for a spot Bitcoin ETF to receive approval before that specified date.

On a recent episode of the Unchained podcast, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart hinted that there might be a change in the SEC's position regarding <a href="/id/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a>.

Seyffart pointed out that the SEC's endorsement of an Ethereum futures ETF could be interpreted as an indirect acknowledgment of Ethereum as a commodity rather than a security. He underscored that if Ethereum were to be classified as a security, the implications would be significant, potentially resulting in the delisting of Ethereum futures and ETFs. Seyffart suggested there is a strong possibility that Ethereum will be categorized as a commodity and projected that this could occur in 2024.

Furthermore, Seyffart highlighted that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has acknowledged Bitcoin as a commodity but has been notably less vocal about Ethereum, which may indirectly indicate his inclination to not view it as a security. Seyffart proposed that the SEC might steer clear of protracted discussions regarding the classification of Ethereum.

Previously, in an interview with Bloomberg TV, Michael Saylor, the co-founder of MicroStrategy, expressed his belief that Bitcoin is poised to enter a bull market in 2024. He also suggested that the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could represent the most significant event on Wall Street in three decades.

Additionally, Michael Saylor remarked that despite the potential U.S. approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, his company would remain a compelling choice for investors looking to gain Bitcoin exposure. He pointed out that while ETFs are not leveraged and incur fees, his company offers leverage without imposing any fees. Saylor emphasized that they offer sophisticated instruments designed for long-term Bitcoin investors.

In a recent blog post, Brian Armstrong, the CEO and co-founder of Coinbase, asserted that not only are cryptocurrencies here for the long haul, but they also represent the future of finance. Following a significant market consolidations, the value of cryptocurrencies has surged by 90% this year, with trading volumes witnessing a 60% rise in the last quarter. Around 425 million individuals globally are now cryptocurrency holders, and 83% of the G20 nations, along with other major financial hubs, have either implemented or are currently formulating regulations to provide clarity and stability to the crypto sector.

In 2022, the volume of stablecoin transactions on the blockchain nearly reached $9 trillion, surpassing the aggregate transfer volumes of Mastercard, American Express, and Discover. Major international finance hubs, including London, Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore, are reinventing themselves as centers for cryptocurrency, adopting a more open and global framework with the goal of attracting employment opportunities and expertise that come with such an advanced ecosystem. Worldwide, over 100,000 merchants and payment gateways now accept cryptocurrencies, with major players like PayPal and Visa among them. The increasing embrace of cryptocurrency is driven by its advantages, such as reduced costs, faster transaction times, and the potential to draw in new clientele.

Regarding statistics, information from The Block indicates that the open interest for Bitcoin options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has hit an all-time peak, approaching $2 billion. A rise in open interest signifies improved liquidity and a growing pool of investors in the market. Data from Coinglass reveals that within the open interest for options set to expire at the end of December, calls make up 65%, while puts account for 35%. A predominance of call options over puts typically suggests the possibility of an upward market trend.

##Today’s Main Token Trends
###BTC
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1703063706image2.png)
Summary: The four-hour chart touched the $40,280 support level and rebounded. In the short term, a W-shaped bottom is forming to break through resistance. Pay attention to the convergence of the mid-term structure, and consider long and short positions based on the overall upward channel. Resistance levels: $45,345 and $47,990; Support levels: $40,280 and $38,399.

###ETH 
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1703063725image3.png)
Summary: This week, Ethereum continues to fluctuate above $2,135. It has tested the $2,135 support three times, and short-term advice is to hold above this level. The next support levels are $2,037 and $1,974. Watch for a breakthrough of the $2,381 resistance, with medium-term attention to the downward trend indicated by the orange line.

###GT
![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17030637581e493997-b1e0-46c8-a294-f64d49162291.png)
Summary: The weekly chart signals the beginning of the second stage of the bull market. The weekly trend has clearly stabilized, with short-term support at the white line and long-term converging around $2.88. Anticipate early signals leading the altcoin sector, with target prices at $12.877, $18.977, $28.58, and $44.99. Long-term holding is recommended.

##Macro: U.S. stocks rose for nine consecutive days； the two major FOMC voting members expressed their stance on interest rate cuts
On Tuesday, ahead of the U.S. market opening, the U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp drop, at one point nearing the 102 level, and ultimately ended the session down by 0.38%, at 102.11. Yields on U.S. Treasuries dipped modestly, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hitting a daily low of 3.894% before regaining some ground to close at 3.931%; meanwhile, the yield on the two-year note, which tends to be more affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, settled at 4.441%.

With the decline in both the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields, the price of spot gold surged in the U.S. trading session, breaking through the $2,030 and $2,040 marks. The precious metal reached a peak of $2,047.01 at one point in the day before settling with a 0.65% increase at $2,040.31 per ounce by the close. Spot silver also climbed, breaching the $24 mark and closing with a 1.05% gain at $24.05 per ounce. In the U.S. stock market, the three principal indexes all finished the session on a positive note, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.68%, the S&P 500 Index advancing by 0.59%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing by 0.66%, marking a continuous rise over the span of nine trading sessions.

Red Sea tensions, fuelling Traders’ anxiety, led to a surge in international crude oil prices, 
which saw a 2% increase at one point. WTI crude oil reached a daily high of $74.40 before finishing with a 1.81% gain, at $74.13 per barrel; similarly, Brent crude oil neared the $80 threshold during the trading day, eventually closing with a 1.73% rise, at $79.30 per barrel.

On Tuesday, the next-year two major FOMC voting members expressed their views on inflation and interest rate cuts.

Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin stated that the Federal Reserve is prepared to lower interest rates should inflation decrease. However, he also noted that they are actively seeking signs that affirm inflation is on track to revert to the Fed's 2% goal. "If it appears that inflation will decline as expected, then naturally, we will act accordingly," Barkin commented on Tuesday.

It should be highlighted that Barkin is slated to join the voting committee of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next year. "From my perspective, I believe inflation is more persistent than what the average person anticipates. I wish I am wrong," he remarked.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic, who is set to become a voting member of the FOMC next year, anticipates a less immediate need for rate reductions. He emphasized that the Federal Reserve must maintain a steadfast and patient approach when considering future policy decisions. "In my opinion, I expect inflation to decrease quite gradually in the coming six months, indicating that there's no need for us to quickly relinquish our tight policy position," he stated.
Bostic mentioned that he foresees the Federal Reserve making two interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2024, in response to a gradual decline in inflation. However, he clarified that "there are no active discussions about that yet."

At their meeting on December 13, policymakers decided to maintain interest rates at their current level for the third time in a row and indicated that they anticipate three rate reductions in the following year. Nonetheless, market participants are predicting that the Federal Reserve's initial rate cut will occur as early as March of next year, even though various Federal Reserve officials have attempted to temper expectations for a substantial rate cut in early 2024.

<div class="blog-details-info">
  <div>Author：**Byron B.**
  <div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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