Daily News | G20 Summit Boosted Global Outlook, Crypto Rise Amid FTX Crisis

Fundamental & Technical Outlook:

TL;DR

🔹 US index futures and Asian equity markets cheered for the G20 summit as the US and China’s respective leaders come to good terms, giving crypto a nice little push during Asian hours.

🔹 On Tuesday, global investors look to UK Unemployment and US PPI. Japan’s Q3 GDP contracted by 1.2%, slightly weakening the Yen and pushing the dollar higher.

🔹 BTC & Ether’s correlations with US Dollar Index (DXY) are 0.62 and 0.26, up from negative territory a week ago, implying macro factors affecting the dollar will be a focal point moving forward.

🔹 The FTX Saga continues: FTX’s hacker panicked and left trails to $339M, SBF is likely going to get probed by the SEC first due to regulatory convenience, and Solana Foundation holds $4.4M FTT.

🔹 The topic of the Day: SBF's inextricable ties to U.S. politics as one of Biden's biggest donors

🔹 Happenings of the Week: Analytics firm Argus says Alameda used FTX to hoard tokens on insider information; digital asset manager Valkyrie lays off 30% of its workforce; Manchester United debuts official NFTs…

💰 . . .

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 16,607 (+3.39%)

Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,243 (+4.64%)

Two of the largest coins by market cap recouped some gains on Monday during the European session but continued their decline during the US session. Since the plunge on Nov. 9, BTC (-21%) and ETH (-20%) have reached prices last seen in 2020.

On early Monday, the Japanese Yen was slightly down after data showed disappointing growth; the dollar remained flat, while US index futures and Asian equity markets cheer for the G20 summit, giving crypto a slight push to the upside. The correlation between the dollar and BTC is 0.62, up from -0.8 a week ago.

Today’s catalysts include the UK unemployment rate and the US purchasing price index. Any impact will be reflected in the US Dollar.

In the decentralized world, gaming tokens across the Solana crypto have dropped even further than Solana’s SOL coin after the network’s biggest supporter SBF filed for bankruptcy. Uncertainties are still in the air despite a seemingly recovering macro outlook.

2️⃣ . . .

Tuesday

23:50 UTC

Japan Q3 GDP YoY

Actual: -1.2%; Consensus: 1.1%; Previous: 3.5%

In Japan, the economy shrank in the three months through September, as consumers spent less amid a resurgence of Covid-19 cases and the weak yen battered trade. The yen traded around 140 versus the dollar on Tuesday, having strengthened from the 150 level seen in October.

07:00 UTC

UK Unemployment SEP

Actual: Awaiting data; Consensus: 3.5%; Previous: 3.5%

In August, UK’s economic inactivity rate increased by 0.6 percentage points or by 252K to 21.7%, the most since records began in 1971, either because people were sick or because they were students.

13:30 UTC

US PPI OCT

Actual: Awaiting data; Consensus: 0.5%; Previous: 0.4%

In September, the Producer Price Index for final demand in the US went up 0.4%, the first increase in three months, and twice the market expectation of a 0.2% rise.

• Cost of services rose 0.4%, with prices for traveler accommodation services jumping 6.4%.
• Cost of goods went up 0.4%, with food prices rising 1.2%.
• Conversely, the index for gasoline fell 2%. Year-on-year, producer prices rose 8.5%, the smallest rate since July last year, but slightly above forecasts of 8.4%.

1️⃣ . . .

Monday

G20 Summit in Bali

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping just took the biggest step in years to prevent a clash between the world’s top two economies.

• The US said the two sides would resume cooperation on issues including climate change and food security, and that Biden and Xi had jointly chastised the Kremlin for loose talk of nuclear war.
• Biden said both countries have a responsibility to “prevent competition from becoming anything ever near a conflict,” and Xi said the two sides “need to find the right direction” and “elevate the relationship.”
• The tone of the meeting may lend additional support to China’s financial markets, which have been on a tear this month amid signs of a moderation in the nation’s Covid Zero and a property-market crackdown. The offshore yuan gained 0.7% versus the US Dollar Monday.

💡 . . .

Today's Markets

BTC +0.52%; Ether +1.17%.

Asia: Japan -0.01%; Hong Kong +1.76**%**; China +0.16%; India -0.11%.

Europe: London +0.10%; Paris +0.22%; Frankfurt +0.62%.

Futures at 02:00, Dow +0.24%; S&P +0.28%; Nasdaq +0.42%.

US Two-year Treasury Yield down 1bps at 4.385%.

US Ten-year Treasury Yield down 2bps at 3.865%.

UK Ten-year Government remained flat at 3.354%.

US Dollar Index +0.08% at 106.54.

FX at 02:00: GBP: 0.00%; EUR: -0.04%; JPY: +0.27%; CNY: -0.17%.

**Gold -**0.42%; Brent Crude +2.48%.

Catalyst this week

• Tuesday: Japan Q3 GDP, UK Unemployment, US PPI (Producer Price Index)
• Wednesday: UK CPI, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales
• Thursday: Japan’s Balance of Trade
• Friday: Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales

🏦 . . .

🟠 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
• Closest support zone: 15,530 - 15,275
• Key resistance level: 16,690 - 16,880

Analysis as of Nov. 15 - 18 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 16,690 - 16,880
2. 17,085 - 17,450
3. 18,090 - 18,750

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 15,530 - 15,275
2. 14,650 - 14,030
3. 13,965 - 13,455

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 16,005 - 15,920
• Closest resistance zone: 16,280 - 16,745
• Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)

Nov. 15 02:35 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $16,739, or +3.64% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 16,280 - 16,745
2. 17,085 - 17,715

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 16,005 - 15,920
2. 15,535 - 15,270

🌐 . . .

🔵 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
• Closest support zone: 1,190 - 1,075
• Key resistance zone: 1,270 - 1,410

Analysis as of Nov. 15 - Nov. 18 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,270 - 1,410
2. 1,500 - 1,575
3. 1,710 - 1,855

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,190 - 1,075
2. 1,045 - 975
3. 910 - 875

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,245 - 1,220
• Closest resistance zone: 1,260 - 1,300
• Key Level: 1,346 (Weekly High of Jan. 04 - 10, 2021)

Nov. 15 02:37 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,262, or +5.94% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,260 - 1,300
2. 1.300 - 1.325
3. 1,345 - 1,390

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,245 - 1,220
2. 1,190 - 1,175
3. 1,145 - 1,120

📌 . . .

📌 Today's topic: SBF's inextricable ties to U.S. politics as one of Biden's biggest donors

According to publicly available information, Alameda and the FTX "core team" and their parents are inextricably linked to U.S. regulators, Wall Street executives, and Democratic leaders, and SBF's ongoing claims of effective altruism are nothing more than a "cover" for nepotism and political pragmatism.

With the shade of their parents and the water released by the Federal Reserve, their risk control and management capabilities did not keep up with the rapid growth of their businesses and capital volumes, and they were blinded by the smoothness of the process, thus forgetting risk control and the bottom line of their operations.

On November 11, U.S. Congressman Tom Emmer tweeted, "My office has received a tip that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is helping SBF and FTX exploit legal loopholes to gain regulatory monopoly status. We are investigating this matter."

After Gensler's return to the political arena, his old staff from his days at the CFTC have gone on to take up positions at FTX.US, such as former CFTC acting head Mark Wetjen, who was hired as head of policy and regulation at FTX US in 2021, and FTX US general counsel Ryne Miller, who was Gensler's personal legal counsel while at the CFTC. This has led to public speculation about the depth of the relationship between FTX and Gensler.

As it seemed, SBF's relationship with U.S. regulators was tight, which may also be the basis for his mockery of CZ. Previously, SBF tweeted a condescending and sarcastic comment, "I can come and go from Washington freely, but can some people (implying CZ)?

Back in the 2020 U.S. presidential election, SBF personally donated $5.2 million to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, second only to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and he was also revealed to be a member of a U.S. super PAC.

This year, SBF has donated $39.2 million in the U.S. midterm elections, mainly to Democratic groups, with $27 million going to PACs, $6 million to support Democratic House candidates, and $2 million to support cryptocurrency-friendly candidates.

But as CNBC previously reported, SBF also let it be known that he intended to contribute $100 million to $1 billion in political contributions to candidates competing with former President Trump in the next U.S. presidential election in 2024, and although SBF later retracted this statement, it was enough to show his political ambition.

According to Fortune Crypto, SBF's parents are also inextricably linked to the Democratic Party, with his mother (Barbara Fried) leading a group called "Mind the Gap" that helps raise money for the Democratic Party in Silicon Valley, and his father Joseph Bankman drafted the tax code for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), so SBF could have used those connections to his advantage and would not have been overseen by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

In response, Snowden reposted on social media that the White House would sanction and arrest kids who develop "privacy tools" while U.S. regulators mingle with people who rob $5 million just because SBF, the "thief," is the biggest donor.

👁️ . . .

Happenings of The Week (Nov. 11 - Nov. 15):

📣 Notables

🔹 U.S. and Indian finance ministers emphasize in meeting: Crypto regulation requires international cooperation.

🔹 U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: FTX crash exposes weaknesses in the Crypto industry, the government will regulate the industry under the presidential executive order.

🔹 Hong Kong Financial Secretary: We must prudently promote the development of the virtual asset industry in Hong Kong.

🔹 Russia and Turkey will cooperate to combat crime-related crypto transactions.

🔹 Bahamas Financial Crimes Investigation Bureau has officially intervened in the investigation of the FTX incident.

🔹 Financial Crimes Investigation Bureau in Turkey, Bahamas officially involved in the investigation of the FTX incident.

📣 Nov. 15

🔹 25% to 40% of crypto hedge funds have direct exposure to FTX or FTT.

🔹 Alameda has used FTX on insider information to hoard tokens on several occasions. According to an analysis of on-chain data by blockchain analytics firm Argus, cited by the Wall Street Journal, Alameda held about $60 million worth of tokens involving 18 listed tokens related to the ethereum blockchain during the period between early 2021 and the announcement of FTX's go-live token in March of this year. It is unclear if or when Alameda sold the tokens tracked by Argus. During that timeframe, FTX went live with nearly 60 ethereum blockchain-based tokens, and Argus co-founder Omar Amjad said, "What we're seeing is that they basically almost always buy positions that they didn't buy before a month before FTX goes live with the tokens.”

🔹 Digital asset manager Valkyrie lays off 30% of its workforce: Cuts are limited to sales and marketing posts

🔹 CFTC Chairman: FTX derivatives business still operating healthy should be credited to government regulation. When asked if the CFTC would take action against FTX, Behnam said he could not reveal specific plans. However, he noted that the CFTC does have the authority to regulate fraud and manipulation in the direct trading of crypto commodities, including Bitcoin. Behnam argued that the latest cryptocurrency crisis also highlights the need for Congress to act quickly to establish regulatory controls.

🔹 Manchester United debuts official digital collection and launches Web3 community and plans to distribute NFT digital collections to its supporters through a Tezos-based platform and provide fans worldwide with information, rewards and the opportunity to interact through online and offline events.

🔹 Venture capitalist Kevin O'Leary considered bailing out FTX, but was blocked by SEC chairman. Gensler said at the time that the crypto industry was "grossly non-compliant" and needed more regulation, CoinDesk reported. Kevin O'Leary said that "there is no way to close the holes in FTX's balance sheet with regulation pending." O'Leary, who is a shareholder in FTX International and FTX.US, said the exchange's collapse "will accelerate regulation" but will unleash a lot of "collateral damage" before then. "We don't know how many more dominoes are going to fall, and it will take time to verify that."

🔹 FTX hackers lost a lot of tokens in a hasty move, but still hold $339 million in digital assets. Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel said, "The FTX attackers weren't very sophisticated, they rushed to try to do whatever they could with the funds and didn't seem to have much of a plan." Hacken CEO Dyma Budorin said they blithely used their verified personal accounts on cryptocurrency exchange Kraken to send enough TRX tokens to pay for the transactions, and the simplicity of the operation means there may be hope of recovering the funds the hackers stole.

📣 Nov. 14

🔹 Musk: Bitcoin will succeed, but may experience a long winter. Musk replied to a tweet by the Syndicate angel investor Jason Calacanis who asked, "Bitcoin is now around $16,000, down from $69,000 a year ago, where will its price be in another year?"

🔹 CZ: In the long run, the FTX bankruptcy will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency industry. At an AMA event, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said, "I didn't expect such a huge drop off after my tweet. I'm sorry for that." He continued, "In the short term, it will be very painful and difficult for investors, but in the long term, the FTX bankruptcy will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency industry. Looking back in five years, this event could be the starting point for building a stronger industry. I think it's best to disclose and resolve issues faster before they escalate into bigger problems.”

🔹 Vitalik Buterin recently sold 3,000 Ether via Uniswap.

🔹 Chinese National Television (CCTV2 CCTV) financial channel reported "FTX declared bankruptcy.

🔹 Visa terminates its partnership with FTX.

🔹 Bloomberg: Most of FTX's assets have been devalued, and customers may have difficulty recovering most of their deposits.

🔹 Musk abruptly lays off 80% of Twitter's contract workers, 4,400 in total.

📣 Nov. 13

🔹 CZ: In the future, I will be more outspoken about the problems I see in the industry.

🔹 BitCoke says it is suspending coin withdrawals due to an investigation into the head of finance.

🔹 SBF and others have been placed under surveillance by relevant Bahamian agencies and have tried to flee to Dubai.

🔹Fidelity Analyst: FTX Crash May Trigger Institutional Investors to Abandon Cryptocurrency Market Investments.

🔹Forbes: FTX Crash May Spark Wave of Solana Eco-NFT Selling.

📣 Nov. 12

🔹Musk had rejected SBF's $5 billion participation in the Twitter acquisition and questioned its liquidity.

🔹 Twitter will launch a crypto wallet in the near future.

🔹 Vitalik: FTX's fraud is worse than Mt. Gox.

🔹 SoBTC on Solana is down over 77% and can no longer be redeemed.

📣 Nov. 11

🔹 SBF has resigned as CEO of FTX and FTX has filed for bankruptcy in the US.

🔹 FTX does business with over 53 auditors, payments and insurance companies, including Deloitte, Stripe and others.

🔹 Bitcoin's third largest giant whale added 2,677 BTC to its holdings yesterday.

🔹 Japan's Financial Services Agency has ordered the suspension of FTX Japan's operations and has a "written business improvement plan" in place.

🔹 Aptos enters into a partnership with Google Cloud.

🔹 BlockFi: Due to the FTX incident, the company is unable to conduct business as usual and will suspend withdrawal services.

🔹Musk: The possibility of Twitter going bankrupt exists.

📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Web3 native brand engagement platform Kalder closes $3 million pre-seed round with participation from Indigo Fund and others. The Kalder platform, which allows companies and creators to work together to launch campaigns, use the blockchain to track online brand engagement data and provide incentives to on-chain users, will reportedly use the new funding to enhance Web3 brand experience features and scale its team.

🔹 NFT Marketplace Joepegs Closes $5 Million Seed Round Led by FTX Ventures and Avalanche Foundation The Joepegs team says the FTX Ventures funding arrived in June of this year, before FTX's bankruptcy restructuring. Launched in May, the Joepegs NFT marketplace is said to have quickly grown to become the largest NFT marketplace in the Avalanche ecosystem, with more than $3.4 million in secondary NFT sales and over 12,000 users. Joepegs features license-free, off-chain price storage, filtering, rarity display, and more.

🔹 Ping, a digital payment solution, closed a $15 million seed round with participation from Y Combinator and others. Built on Latamex, a Latin American provider of cryptocurrency and fiat money access, Ping enables any individual, organization or company to create a free international account in US dollars and receive bank transfers, allowing users to trade cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.

📣 This week’s onchain criminal activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 DeFiAI project got rug pulled, contract deployer profited about $40 million, according to blockchain security audit company Beosin's Beosin EagleEye.

🔹 Crypto security expert (@officer_cia) tweeted that the FTX app should be uninstalled immediately, as the FTX app may now have the potential to leak important information such as private keys.