Daily News | CPI Data Meets Expectations, Crypto Market and US Stocks Separate Way

2024-08-15, 04:36

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## Crypto Daily Digest: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has significantly decreased, and Ethereum staked ETFs may not be far away
According to Farside Investor data, US <a href="/ar/price/<a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">bitcoin</a>-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_<a href="/ar/price/link-ln" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">link</a>">Bitcoin</a> spot ETFs had a net outflow of $81 million yesterday, including a net inflow of $2.7 million from BlackRock IBIT, $56.9 million from Grayscale GBTC, $18 million from Fidelity FBTC, $5.8 million from Bitwise BITB, $6.8 million from ARK ARKB, and $3.4 million from Franklin EZBC.

Yesterday, the net inflow of US <a href="/ar/price/<a href="/price/ethereum-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">ethereum</a>-eth" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Ethereum</a> spot ETFs was $10.8 million. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA net inflow was $16.1 million, Grayscale ETHE net outflow was $16.9 million, Fidelity's FETH net inflow was $6.7 million, Bitwise's ETHW net inflow was $2.7 million, and Grayscale Mini ETH net inflow was $2.3 million.

**Federal Reserve Messenger: July CPI Clears Way for September Interest Rate Cut**

Nick Timiraos, the spokesperson for the Federal Reserve, wrote that the July CPI data cleared the way for the Fed to start cutting interest rates at its next meeting. Due to recent signs of potential weakness in the labor market, the debate at the Federal Reserve's September meeting will focus on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the traditional way or a larger 50 basis points. The inflation data released on Wednesday did not resolve this debate. On the contrary, this debate may depend on labor market reports, including weekly initial jobless claims and the August non farm payroll report to be released on September 6th. The inflation report released on Wednesday is relatively mild, but the strong rise in housing costs may dampen enthusiasm for the data. However, Federal Reserve leaders have hinted that they are preparing to start cutting interest rates next month, partly because inflation data for May and June are also much milder.

**After the launch of Grayscale ETHE, 27.8% has been released, and it is expected to release 50% within 72 days**

According to data, the Grayscale Ethereum ETF (ETHE) had a net outflow of $16.9 million yesterday. After being converted into an ETF, it has already flowed out by 27.8% and is expected to <a href="/ar/price/<a href="/price/flow-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">flow</a>-flow" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">flow</a> out by 50% within 72 days (as of October 29th).

**Viewpoint: The launch of Ethereum staking ETFs is only a matter of time**

Cynthia Lo Bessette, head of Fidelity's digital asset management department, stated in an interview with The Block that the company currently has no clear plans for spot ETFs other than Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Lo Bessette added that although the US SEC has not yet approved ETFs that can stake ETH, this situation may change in the future because staking is an important part of the Ethereum ecosystem and investment opportunities. She believes that it is more a matter of time than whether it will happen, and the Fidelity team has had a "constructive dialogue" with SEC staff to discuss the possibility of pushing staked ETH ETFs to the market.

## Market Trends: The market remains sluggish and lacks capital inflows
### Mainstream Coins
The CPI data released last night had a significant impact on the <a href="/ar/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link"><a href="/ar/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a></a>. Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a trend of first rising and then falling after the data was released. At present, BTC spot ETF experienced a capital outflow of $80 million yesterday, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate widely.

Ethereum is also in a volatile range, although there has been a small influx of funds into ETH spot ETFs, overall market sentiment has not significantly improved.

Altcoins have generally declined, and there are currently no sectors with good performance in the market.

In terms of data indicators, today's AHR999 index is 0.66, indicating that the current price is still a good point for buying in batches. The Fear Greed Index is 29, indicating that market sentiment will continue to remain sluggish for a period of time, and the market is waiting for new hotspots and narratives to emerge.

### Market Hotspots:
**Public Chain Ton**
TON rebounded above $7 in the short term, and the leading meme coin NOT on the Ton chain also rose along with it. Ton has over 1 billion registered users worldwide, providing a strong user base for its ecosystem. Small games in the Ton ecosystem, such as Hamster Kombat and Dogs, are expected to receive token issuances in the near future, and the launch of these new projects has increased market expectations for the Ton chain.

However, it is worth noting that TON's total circulating market value is relatively high, which may limit its further upward potential. Therefore, although Ton Chain has performed well recently, participation should be cautious, and investors should make decisions based on their own risk tolerance.

**AI Sector**
Aethir (ATH) experienced a daily fluctuation of over 40%, mainly due to its launch on a Korean trading platform. However, other AI sector tokens such as FET, IO, LAT, etc. have relatively small gains, but they still perform relatively well in the overall declining market.

The performance of the AI sector demonstrates the sustained market attention to AI technology and applications, which may provide support for future market hotspots. Investors can focus on projects in the AI sector that have practical applications and technological advantages to capture potential investment opportunities.

## Macroeconomics: CPI data meets expectations, three major US stock indices collectively close higher
The three major US stock indices collectively closed higher, with the S&P 500 index rising 0.38% to 5455.21 points; The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.61% to 40008.39 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.03% to 17192.60 points. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is 3.83%, while the 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate, is 3.94%.

Among the popular US stocks, Apple rose 0.20%, Microsoft rose 0.69%, Nvidia rose 1.67%, Google C fell 2.35%, Google A fell 2.31%, Amazon fell 0.08%, Meta fell 0.34%, TSMC fell 1.37%, Tesla fell 3.10%, and AMD fell 0.27%.

Yesterday, the US July non seasonally adjusted CPI further fell to 2.9%. In the eyes of industry insiders, the Federal Reserve is expected to implement a "precautionary interest rate cut" in September this year. For the domestic market, pro cyclical resources are expected to achieve excess returns, and northbound funds are expected to continue flowing in. However, considering that the capital market has priced the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations much earlier than before, the actual impact of the rate cut on asset prices may be relatively mild. According to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 63%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 37%.

### Conclusion
Overall, the crypto market is currently in a volatile and sluggish state, with major coins such as BTC and ETH failing to form a clear upward trend after the release of CPI data. The market sentiment is sluggish, and investors should remain cautious, especially in the absence of clear hotspots and narratives in the market.

However, certain sectors such as public chain Ton and AI have shown some market vitality. Ton Chain, with its large user base and upcoming new projects, may have some performance in the short term, but we need to be wary of the upward limit brought by its high market value. The AI sector remains an area worth paying attention to due to its technological and application prospects.

In the current market environment, investors should monitor risk management, and buying in batches may be a conservative and effective strategy. Meanwhile, maintain attention to market hotspots and timely capture potential investment opportunities.

<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Icing**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>

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