Good morning, today is Monday, Nov. 21, 2022.

TL;DR

🔹 Bitcoin and Ether lost grip on Sunday following the latest news surrounding FTX. During the same weekend, China saw its first Covid-related deaths in almost six months, which had also been an influencing factor on Macro prices.

🔹 The Dollar Index and global bonds, particularly from the US and UK, have been the only assets that rose during the same period.

🔹 BTC and ETH’s correlations with the dollar (0.85 & 0.73) continue to rise on paper despite seeing some diverging movements on the hourly chart. This implies either the synchronization of price movements will occur or the correlations may soon reverse.

🔹 This week, global investors will be eyeing Wednesday’s FOMC Statement.

🔹 The topic of the Day: FTX hackers swapped 25,000 ETH for renBTC last night, currently the hackers still hold 200,000 ETH. Will the dump continue? Is renBTC at risk?

🔹 Happenings of the Week: CME CEO says the exchange won’t bail on crypto, Grayscale refused disclosure via Proof of Reserve citing security concerns, X2Y2 says it’ll enforce royalties on all NFTs…

💰 . . .

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 16,207 (-4.49%)

Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,137 (-8.54%)

The Dollar, China, and FTX

Over the weekend, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap fell by -1.66% and -5.79%, notably, BTC had been hovering around the $16,700 level for 3 days until the plunge occurred on Sunday. The plunge was likely due to Sunday’s news surrounding FTX.

On Sunday, FTX released its redacted list of the 50 largest creditors whose claims range from $21 million to $226 million, totaling around $3.1 Billion in debt. On the same day, FTX exploiter swapped millions in Ether to Alameda-Linked Ren Bitcoin Tokens.

As of mid-Asian trading session, Bitcoin and Ether continue their decline despite being positively correlated with the Dollar Index which had been rising since 2 weeks ago. This underlies the uncertainties shared among crypto investors as the crisis surrounding FTX continues to unfold.

On the macro front, nearly every market has turned bearish except for the Dollar. US treasuries also rose across the curve on higher demand for havens.

Chinese stocks fell on Monday and the yuan weakened as the country’s first documented Covid deaths in almost six months sparked concern authorities could dial back the easing of restrictions. In a separate report by Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, TCW, Fidelity International, and Franklin Templeton, are turning increasingly bullish on Chinese assets as investors have to start thinking about what is going to be one of the big, global trades of 2023.

This week’s focus will be on Wednesday’s FOMC statement.

2️⃣ . . .

Tuesday

13:30 UTC

Canada Retail Sales MoM SEP: Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: -0.5%; Previous: -0.7%

Retail Sales YoY SEP: Actual: Awaiting Data; Consensus: 5.1%; Previous: 7%

Last Friday, UK’s October retail sales, though beating the consensus, were still in the negative growth zone. This means Canada’s figures will aid investors in evaluating global growth and where to potentially allocate their money to mitigate risk.

• August’s retail sales rose by 0.7% from a month earlier, rebounding from a downward contraction of 2.5% in July.
• The increase was led by higher turnover in food and beverage stores (2.4%), with sharp increases for both grocery stores (2.6%) and convenience stores (2.6%).
• Contrarily, turnover fell at gasoline stations (-0.2%) due to prices at the pump, since volume of gasoline sold increased by 7%. On a yearly basis, retail trade rose by 7% in August, easing from the 8% jump in July.

1️⃣ . . .

Monday

01:15 UTC

China Loan Prime Rate 1Y: Actual: 3.65%; Consensus: 3.65%; Previous: 3.65%

Loan Prime Rate 5Y NOV: Actual: 4.3%; Consensus: 4.3%; Previous: 4.3%

The Offshore Yuan fell against the dollar after the data release, which boosted the dollar index but failed to catalyze cryptocurrencies after a build-up of bearish sentiment from last weekend’s plunge.

• The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates unchanged for the third month at November fixing.
• The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which uses for corporate and household loans, was kept at 3.65%; while the five-year rate, a reference for mortgages, was maintained at 4.3%. The central bank last week held its medium-term policy rate at 2.75%.

5️⃣ . . .

Friday

07:00 UTC

UK Retail Sales MoM OCT: Actual: 0.6%; Consensus: -0.3%; Previous: -1.5%

Retail Sales YoY: Actual: -6.1%; Consensus: -6.5%; Previous: -6.9%

The pound rose against the dollar at the time of release but fell as the weekend arrived. Cryptocurrencies fell as well, which signals the positive correlation with the dollar index is beginning to diverge and implies investors are mitigating risk but moving their assets elsewhere.

• Retail sales in the UK increased 0.6% month-over-month in October of 2022, after falling an upwardly revised 1.5% in September when many businesses including retailers observed an additional bank holiday for the Queen's funeral.
• In recent months, supermarkets have highlighted that they are seeing a decline in volumes sold because of the increased cost of living and food prices.
• On a year-over-year basis, retail sales decreased 6.1% in October of 2022, marking a sixth consecutive month of falls in retail sales, as the cost of living crisis and high prices weigh on consumer demand.

💡 . . .

Today's Markets

BTC -1.76%; Ether -2.27%.

Asia: Japan -0.15%; Hong Kong -2.64**%**; China -1.22%; India -0.20%.

Europe: London +0.24%; Paris +1.04%; Frankfurt +1.16%.

Futures at 02:00: Dow -0.31%; S&P -0.39%; Nasdaq -0.34%.

US Two-year Treasury Yield up 8bps at 4.539%.

US Ten-year Treasury Yield up 6bps at 3.831%.

UK Ten-year Government up 5bps at 3.242%.

US Dollar Index +0.19% at 106.75.

FX at 02:00: GBP: -0.33%; EUR: -0.26%; JPY: -0.01%; CNY: +0.67%.

Gold -0.27%; Brent Crude -2.41%.

Catalysts this week

• Monday: China Loan Prime Rate
• Tuesday: Canada Retail Sales
• Wednesday: FOMC Minutes
• Thursday: Germany Ifo Business Climate
• Friday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence

🏦 . . .

🟠 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 13,965 (Monthly High of Jun. 2019)
• Closest support zone: 15,950 - 15,830
• Key resistance level: 16,220 - 16,400

Analysis as of Nov. 21 - 27 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 16,220 - 16,400
2. 16,400 - 16,880
3. 17,085 - 17,715

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 15,950 - 15,830
2. 15,525 - 15,200
3. 14,650 - 14,030

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 16,280 - 16,010
• Closest resistance zone: 16,280 - 16,630
• Key Level: 15,952 (Weekly Close Between Nov. 02 - 09, 2020)

Nov. 21 02:41 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $16,000, or -3.99% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 16,280 - 16,630
2. 17,085 - 17,205
3. 17,575 - 18,025

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 16,280 - 16,010
2. 15,535 - 15,200
3. 14,375 - 13,965

🌐 . . .

🔵 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 757 (Monthly High of Dec. 2020)
• Closest support zone: 1,110 - 1,060
• Key resistance zone: 1,180 - 1,265

Analysis as of Nov. 21 - 27 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,180 - 1,265
2. 1,310 - 1,345
3. 1,390 - 1,450

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,110 - 1,060
2. 1,035 - 990
3. 910 - 795

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,175 - 1,140
• Closest resistance zone: 1,220 - 1,240
• Key Level: 1,346 (Weekly High of Jan. 04 - 10, 2021)

Nov. 21 03:00 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,119, or -8.02% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,140 - 1,175
2. 1,220 - 1,240
3. 1,255 - 1,265

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,110 - 1,065
2. 1,060 - 1,015
3. 1,010 - 965

📌 . . .

📌 Today's topic: FTX hackers swapped 25,000 ETH for renBTC last night. Will the dump continue? Is renBTC at risk?

According to on-chain data, on the evening of November 20, the hacker of FTX account transferred 25,000 ETH (worth $30 million) and started selling off ETH for renBTC. As of this writing, the hacker had sold off about 17,000 ETH while still retaining 200,000 ETH in his address.

As previously reported, the Ren team, which was acquired by Alameda, revealed that it currently has only enough money to develop until the end of the fourth quarter, with about $160,000 remaining for the project.

On BTC-anchored coins, Alameda Research is rumored to be the largest WBTC merchant and has acquired Ren Labs, the development team for renBTC.

Ren 1.0, which is now in use, is considered by the team to be at risk of obsolescence, and considering that Alameda is paying Ren Labs' salary, the community's concern that the team holds control of the project does not seem unreasonable, and this could indeed be a point of risk.

According to Ren Project's blockchain browser, the big players seem to be fleeing. Just four of the most recent transactions involved the redemption of renBTC on Ether back to native Bitcoin.

With crypto black swan events occurring frequently, how should users choose? Feel free to share and discuss on our social media platforms.

👁️ . . .

Happenings of The Week (Nov. 18 - 21):

📣 Notables

🔹 In their declaration, G20 leaders, including President Joe Biden, called for a global regulatory framework for crypto.

🔹 Singapore's deputy prime minister said he’ll take a tough stance on crypto speculation, especially targeting retail investors.

🔹 China's first metaverse computing center opened in Qingtian County, Zhejiang Province.

📣 Nov. 21

🔹 Sony filed a patent application for its technology described as "using tokens on a distributed ledger to track in-game unique digital assets.”

🔹 Vitalik Buterin: FTX incident is a "huge tragedy" and says cryptocurrencies have a long way to go to reach their full potential.

📣 Nov. 20

🔹 Bitcoin's third largest whale address outflows 1,800 BTC in the past week.

🔹 Trump reiterated that he has no intention of returning to Twitter. Earlier, Musk said he had respected public opinion to restore Trump's Twitter account.

🔹 CME CEO: We won't abandon crypto futures trading because of FTX's failure.

🔹 The Caribbean island nation of St. Nick is set to make BCH legal tender by 2023. Terrance Micheal Drew, the country's prime minister, also revealed that St. Nick officials are willing to participate in Bitcoin cash mining, and Terrance believes that cryptocurrencies represent "the opportunity of the future" and that the plan will come into effect once regulators ensure that consumers will receive maximum protection.

📣 Nov. 19

🔹 FTX announces the launch of a strategic review of its global assets and intends to sell or restructure certain businesses.

🔹 Grayscale: For security reasons, no on-chain wallet information will be disclosed via proof of reserve.

🔹 X2Y2 removed "custom royalty" and will enforce royalties on all NFTs.

🔹 The Ensign Group plans to launch a cryptocurrency hedge fund.

📣 Nov. 18

🔹 Oscar-nominated director David Darg and XTR Studios have begun production on the FTX documentary.

🔹 Tuvalu will be the first country to move into the metaverse as rising sea levels threaten survival.

🔹 New FTX CEO: Alameda had a "secret waiver" in the FTX auto-liquidation agreement.

🔹 Jump Crypto: no plans to close, still actively investing and trading.

🔹 ConsenSys Launches Ether Climate Platform ECP, Aims to Mitigate Energy Consumption Issues Prior to Ether Merger

📣 This week’s fundraising activities include but are not limited to:

🔹 Web3 developer platform Buildspace closes $10M round led by a16z with participation from Y-Combinator. Buildspace aims to provide a Web3 learning platform for users and currently offers learning programs such as Solidity, Ether NFT, Solana Web3 App, and more.

🔹 Decentralized financial marketplace infrastructure startup Revv announced that it has closed a $5.5 million round of funding in Q2 led by Libertus Capital. Revv founder Adi Dommaraju said he hopes to build the new DeFi product by combining TradFi and Web2 practices with a crypto-native experience.

🔹 NFT platform Hyakkit closed a $2 million seed round led by Step VC and others. Hyakki is dedicated to building marketing and utility infrastructure for Web3 and NFT, using AR and AI to provide marketing services and application scenarios for Web2 and Web3 brands so that NFT is not limited to JPEG images but can give brands more.