Good morning, today is Monday, Nov. 07, 2022.

TL;DR

• Bitcoin and Ether dropped over the weekend.

• China’s Balance of Trade affects US Dollar which inversely affects cryptocurrencies.

• This week investors eye US CPI data on Thursday.

• The inverse correlations with volatility and US Dollar are above -0.90 and -0.78 for both BTC & ETH, implying high movements ahead.

• Dow Jones correlations at 0.83, but Nasdaq at -0.21, implying tech sectors are losing steam after the recent earnings rally.

• The inverse co

• The topic of the Day: Meta plans to start mass layoffs this week

• Happenings of the Week: Circle to issue Euro Coin on Solana. And Biden said Twitter is "an institution that spreads lies to the world.

Bitcoin (BTC) 24-Hour Change: 20,905 (-1.87%)

Ether (ETH) 24-Hour Change: 1,569 (-3.58%)

On Monday, attentions shift to China’s Balance of Trade while European and American markets await a ripple effect. The most anticipated catalyst of the week is US CPI due for release this Thursday.

• Correlations with Dow Jones Index remained flat

  • BTC Current: 0.83; 24HR: 0.78; 1W: 0.88
  • ETH Current: 0.83; 24HR: 0.78; 1W: 0.92

• Correlations with S&P 500

  • BTC remained flat at Current: 0.69; 24HR: 0.72; 1W: 0.86
  • ETH rose slightly to Current: 0.75; 24HR: 0.77; 1W: 0.89

• Correlations with Nasdaq dropped to

  • BTC Current: 0.21; 24HR: 0.29; 1W: 0.66
  • ETH Current: 0.26; 24HR: 0.33; 1W: 0.6

• Correlation with US Dollar Index remained flat ****at

  • BTC Current: -0.78; 24HR: -0.78; 1W: -0.78
  • ETH Current: -0.78; 24HR: -0.78; 1W: -0.75

• Correlation with Volatility Index slightly rose to ****

  • BTC Current: -0.92; 24HR: -0.91; 1W: -0.86
  • ETH Current: -0.96; 24HR: -0.96; 1W: -0.89

Monday

11:00 UTC

China Balance of Trade: Actual: ____ ; Consensus: 81; Previous: 79.38

Weaker Yuan, Stronger Dollar. Vice Versa.

A dollar value with a high inverse correlation to BTC & ETH implies more volatile moves will be reflected in cryptocurrencies.

• China's trade surplus widened to USD 84.74 billion in September 2022 from USD 67.05 billion in the same month a year earlier, and above market forecasts of USD 81 billion.
• Exports increased 5.7 percent year-on-year, the least since April, due to weakening external demand amid surging prices and higher borrowing costs; while imports edged up a meager 0.3 percent, as domestic demand remained sluggish.
• The trade surplus with the US narrowed to USD 36.1 billion in September from August's figure of USD 36.7 billion. For the January to September period, the trade surplus was at USD 645.1 billion, with exports climbing 12.5 percent and imports rising 4.1 percent from a year earlier.

Friday
12:30 UTC

October Non-Farm Payroll: Actual: 261K**; Consensus**: 200K-240K; Previous: 263K

NFP is the measure of the number of workers in the U.S. excluding farm workers.

During October, Payrolls came in higher than expected, rising 261K beating expectations for 250K but remained slightly lower than the previous 263K and starkly lower than August’s 315K.

October US Unemployment Rate: Actual: 3.7%; Consensus: 3.6**%; Previous:** 3.5**%**

During ****October, the US unemployment rate rose 20 bps to 3.5%, worst than the 3.6% consensus.

Disappointing data further exacerbates fears over the latest rate hike and its ramifications across markets, as shown by equity futures indices’ volatility which seems to be headed into bullish territory as of 13:00 UTC. From 13:30 - 16:00 is US early session, which is when we’ll see ripples settled and effects priced in.

Today's Markets

BTC -1.82%; Ether -3.02%.

Asia: Japan -1.68%; Hong Kong +5.36%; China +2.43%; India +0.19%.

Europe: London -0.29%; Paris +2.77%; Frankfurt +2.51%.

Futures at 00:30, Dow -0.44%. S&P -0.52%; Nasdaq -0.60%.

US Ten-year Treasury Yield remained flat at 4.16%.

UK Ten-year Government Bonds up 4 bps at 3.53%.

US Dollar Index -0.23% at 110.81.

Gold -0.44%; Brent Crude +4.12%.

Catalysts between Nov. 07 - Nov. 11:

• Monday: China Balance of Trade
• Tuesday: 2022 US Midterm Elections
• Wednesday: China Inflation Rate (CPI)
• Thursday: US Inflation Rate (CPI)
• Friday: UK Q3 GDP, November Michigan Consumer Sentiment

🟠 BTC

BTC Weekly timeframe:

• Major Level: 20,350 (38.2% Monthly Fibonacci Retracement Level)
• Closest support zone: 21,000 - 21,690
• Key resistance level: 21,000 - 21,690

Analysis as of Nov. 07 - Nov. 11 Session.

BTC Weekly Resistance zones

1. 21,000 - 21,690
2. 22,490 - 23,290

BTC Weekly Support zones

1. 20,335 - 19,720
2. 17,700 - 17,088

BTC Daily Timeframe:

• Closest support zone: 20,915 - 20,575
• Closest resistance zone: 20,915 - 21,130
• Key Level: 61.8% (20,575) daily Fibonacci Retracement level

Nov. 07 01:48 UTC Update:

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $20,940, down -1.19% in a 24hr period.

BTC Daily Resistance zones

1. 20,915 - 21,130
2. 21,500 - 21,755

BTC Daily Support zones

1. 20,915 - 20,575
2. 20,320 - 19,900

🔵 ETH

Weekly Timeframe

• Major Level - 1,500 (38.2% Weekly Fibonacci Level)
• Closest support zone: 1,575 - 1,500
• Key resistance zone: 1,705 - 1,735

Analysis as of Nov. 07 - Nov. 11 Session.

ETH Weekly Resistance zones

1. 1,705 - 1,735
2. 1,770 - 1,855
3. 2,010 - 2,090

ETH Weekly Support zones

1. 1,575 - 1,500
2. 1,450 - 1,415
3. 1,390 - 1,345

ETH Daily Timeframe

• Closest support zone: 1,575 - 1,545
• Closest resistance zone: 1,590 - 1,615
• Key Level: 1,575 (61.8% Daily Fibonacci Retracement Level)

Nov. 04 02:18 UTC Update:

ETH was trading at $1,542, or down 1.86% in a 24hr period.

ETH Daily Resistance zones

1. 1,590 - 1,615
2. 1,625 - 1,645
3. 1,755 - 1,765

ETH Daily Support zones

1. 1,575 - 1,545
2. 1,520 - 1,500
3. 1,490 - 1,480

📌 The topic of the Day: Meta plans to start mass layoffs this week

Meta plans to begin mass layoffs this week, according to a report by Bloomberg.

The layoffs are expected to affect thousands of employees, and the layoff announcement is scheduled to be made as early as Wednesday. People familiar with the matter said company executives have informed employees to cancel non-essential travel starting this week.

Meta reported that it had more than 87,000 employees at the end of September. Meta CEO Zuckerberg recently said in a statement that the company will "focus its investments on a few high-priority areas," which would be the first major layoffs since Meta was founded.

The Wall Street Journal reported in September that Meta plans to cut expenses by at least 10 percent in the coming months.

🗒 Happenings of The Week (Nov. 06 - Nov. 07):

Nov. 07

• 📣 Circle to issue Euro Coin, a euro-stabilized coin, on Solana in early 2023. Circle launched Euro Coin in June this year and it is currently running on Ethereum. Euro Coin uses the same USD stablecoin USDC reserve model, 100% backed by euro-denominated reserves that can be converted into euros at a 1:1 ratio.

Nov. 06

• 📣 Biden: Twitter is "an institution that spreads lies to the world." Musk has previously fired most of Twitter's executives and board of directors, and he will reportedly fire about half of the company's employees.